bueno, volveremos a las sociedades agricolas y ganaderas algo en lo que tenemos experiencia como humanidad. Espero que no volvamos al esclavismo. Tal vez dejemos atras la cultura del derroche, el consumo desenfrenado, la alimentacion industrial, la omnipresente sobremedicacion, la epidemia de trastornos mentales, la obesidad, la esquilmacion de la naturaleza y su enguarramiento y por todo, la cultura de la banalidad como principio rector. Puede ser un buen principio, hay que confiar. el mundo estallara en pedazos algun dia pero no hoy. Mañana.
Economics of war, food, and energy will be getting increasing scrutiny.
No longer can wars be fought with expensive war machines requiring huge energy hogging logistical supply chains. Energy will be too expensive. What is left that is cheap?
Ans: human lives. Wars will be fought with cheaper to manufacture drones, not waves of humans from the trench warfare assaults like in WWI, but disseminated expendable bodies using cheap to manufacture drones, especially using proxies. The Ukraine conflict will go down in history as the great transition in warfare. Maybe even more influential than the transition of war from trenches, the machine gun, Blitzkrieg using integrated tanks, transport, planes, artillery and missiles.
Ironically, drone warfare has made war more diffuse, but also driven soldiers back into the trenches or in the rubble of bombed out or abandoned buildings. Shades of Stalingrad, or sadly, back to Gaza. The Palestinians are doomed.
Food scarcity will be the ultimate driver of getting young men to go to fight the bankers' wars. Britain was able to man its vast imperial navy in the 1700s as food scarcity and living standards were so low back home, that youth would enlist just for the rations served on the ships, bad as they were. No wonder the HMS Bounty sailors mutinied. It wasn't that Captain Blight was so bad- that is pure Hollywood-he actually used less corporal punishment than other captains of the times-it was the women, warm climate, and plentifully food they left behind in Tahiti that was behind the mutiny. Prioritizing water for the breadfruit at the expense of the sailors didn't help matters.
But with a planet full of people, human lives will become cheap.
Also check out Michael Hudson's work and David Graeber's book 'Debt the First 5000 Years' who both explain (same as MMT) how debt works i.e. not debt = no money!
"Now, all our wise betters and elders can think of is how to totally mess global supply chains up; as if making sure they break right on schedule".
This is the silver lining in the dark cloud of the Trump presidency. The collapse of modern civilization is inevitable and, when it's over, a much smaller population will be left with a damaged world to live in. The sooner and faster collapse happens, the better that world will be.
Iceland is off the charts, thanks to their geothermal resources and small population. Living on an island where a volcano can be born in your backyard has its downsides.
Canadians are spoiled children who have continuously wasted their natural resources, unlike countries less favoured by Mother Nature that have often learned the hard way to save.
We, humankind that is, having spent the last three centuries in a frenzy of consumption, are driven by our innate nature, to fight over the dregs of what's left..
300 years ago. we found a new way to rip resources from the planet that sustains us, and saw that as our god given right to literally render the Earth into a cash asset.
Suddenly we had the means by which the world could be bought and sold as an asset of infinity....money could expand forever.
Wars became a prime industry, supporting factories instread of the blacksmith
and we believed the idiots who told us this was so.. (we were idiots too)
wealth was limitless!---we ignored the fact that this has been the line of the Ponzi salesman, since before we knew what Ponzi schemes were.
MAGA has become the rallying cry of delusion.
(But George Bush said: The American way of Life is non negotiable---so the Don's stupidity is not exclusive)
The wars of the past century were not separate events, but waves on the same sea, the rising tide of desperation as each nation recognises what the future holds, and is determined not to drown with the rest.
Wars are simply the reactions of denial, that our way of life is over, and the planet will no longer tolerate our depredations.
Collapse has become the last great business opportunity, because we must spend the last of our wealth in wars of denial.
I've just published a new book, defining where it all started, and how:
The Iron Men of Shropshire, How they put the world to work
I remember Obama said “the American way of life is non negotiable” in his first inaugural speech. Or maybe, “we will not apologize for the American way of life”. Either one, my heart fell and I knew we were in for more of the same empire shenanigans.
I’d be more than happy to drive around in a ‘57 Chevy and grow my own food. Better sell my yard-less, suburban comfort-cell, get out of this sub-division and onto a little land to do so! Pretty busy at the moment though - how much time we got? 😂
Cuba after the collapse of the USSR is a very good guide to where we all might be if this comes to pass, as suggested by the author. Basically every square inch of soil was turned over to growing food. They survived, just about, but kind of regressed about 30 years, overnight. They also had skill sets most of us have long since lost. I rate our chances as a good deal worse than theirs then. I saw the same thing in Greece during the 2010s - and again they survived, because they had family homes and land to retreat to, and a considerable sense of community. You can survive on lentils and neighbours.
@B: A big thank you for another very interesting post, which is well-argued.
Even though I have little respect for the recipes of economical cooking —a false science elevated to the status of religion by the high priests of those in power— I still appreciate a well-reasoned argument.
No matter what angle you approach our society predicament from, you will always arrive at the conclusion that war is inevitable since infinite growth being impossible, it must come to an end.
You are one of the few to rightly proclaim that recession has already begun since the peak of oil production. I believe that more and more of our worthless politicians are sensing this reality. However, this time, there is nowhere for the rats to jump from the ship (planet).
So, how do we manage de-growth? These retarded individuals have already failed miserably in managing growth; how can we expect them to guide us out of this rut? Aside from sending thoughts and prayers, a global pandemic, or the ultimate solution to any economic crisis (i.e. war) there is no invocation (tools) in their religion of economics that allows for that.
I'll leave the first option to the orange clown, and the second is too uncertain since viruses have no religion. So, it seems war will be the answer, but this time with the intent of destroying as many lives as possible, preferably civilians.
But when? It depends on the first domino to fall...
Also a part you missed in chinese deflation was the absolutely ballooning government spending. If the public expenditure were to reduce the deflation would become just as acute. Anyways great article on the chinese economy. Usually such type of article are one, trashing china and believe firmly in greatness of the US or two, absolutely glazing china where no matter what china does it is greatest achievement of mankind. The 2nd type is much more prominent on substack. It is great to see somebody being just honest.
QUOTE: "The fundamental mistake the west made, and what the Chinese economy foolishly repeated was attempting infinite growth on a finite planet."
We need to be clear about one thing: historically speaking, the Chinese at first emphatically did NOT want to adopt the modern industrial narrative at all. The very notion of trading in their traditional way of life and traditional way of thinking for a way of life and a way of thinking advocated by foreign barbarians would have struck the (premodern) Chinese as beyond ludicrous. So why did they eventually adopt the modern industrial narrative, then? Because if they didn't, then it would have been easy for those who did to TRAMPLE on them, as the Europeans and the Japanese did during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The brute reality is that, while in the long run the modern industrial narrative (which takes infinite growth as a given, of course) is indeed a recipe for devastation and ruin, in the short run it does yield enormous material power. Power which enables you to trample on others -- or avoid being trampled upon. The Chinese were not fools. They were FORCED to take that path. They had no other choice. (I shall assume letting oneself continue to be trampled upon is not a viable choice for anyone.) And China's story was probably repeated in many if not most other non-Western cultures, too.
The West is the main culprit behind what China has become today. And the Devil may pay well in the short run, but the long run is now.
The process you're describing is not "Europe's fault", and it is mistaken to believe Europe is the culprit in this process. In fact, Europe was itself a victime of that same logic through which China was forced to join the modern extractive logic.
The driving force is simple: any power that focuses on short term maximised gain will find itself more powerful than others, and will overtake them. Thus, others will either be conquered or destroyed, or they will adjust to maximise their own efficiency in order to become able to compete and to retain autonomy.
.
Europe was characterised by multiple actors in close proximity and in constant competition. It is how the extractivist and performance-focuses model emerged. Once it had settle, Europe was is such a position of advantage that it could conquer the world. Also, conquering the world was a way to avoid direct confrontation between European nations while they had acquired such massive power. It is only once they had conquered the world, that European nations fell into the general fight against one another again, and it almost resulted in continental suicide. One may argue that World War One kicked started the process of European demise.
.
As European nations had been forced to join into the extractivist model to compete with one another as to escape being dominated, their spread over the world forced other powers to join the race: the US, Russia, Japan... and just a bit later, China. As to overcome European domination. That is, as to compete with the over-efficient extractivist model in order to seek survival and an ability to maintain autonomy.
Exactly as had applied to European nations first.
.
The process of Modernity hit Europe first. European were victims of it first. It is certainly an accident of History, that a few critical technological and organisational innovation were made in Europe which resulted in kickstarting the whole process. Most probably, it would have ended up happening somewhere else, and quite possibly in China, had Europe missed it. It could have happened later, giving human civilisation a longer lifespan. But it would have occured ultimately.
Very very interesting and echoes much of what I have been pondering. It certainly has prompted us to worry more about learning to grow food than keeping up with the jones'.
bueno, volveremos a las sociedades agricolas y ganaderas algo en lo que tenemos experiencia como humanidad. Espero que no volvamos al esclavismo. Tal vez dejemos atras la cultura del derroche, el consumo desenfrenado, la alimentacion industrial, la omnipresente sobremedicacion, la epidemia de trastornos mentales, la obesidad, la esquilmacion de la naturaleza y su enguarramiento y por todo, la cultura de la banalidad como principio rector. Puede ser un buen principio, hay que confiar. el mundo estallara en pedazos algun dia pero no hoy. Mañana.
Economics of war, food, and energy will be getting increasing scrutiny.
No longer can wars be fought with expensive war machines requiring huge energy hogging logistical supply chains. Energy will be too expensive. What is left that is cheap?
Ans: human lives. Wars will be fought with cheaper to manufacture drones, not waves of humans from the trench warfare assaults like in WWI, but disseminated expendable bodies using cheap to manufacture drones, especially using proxies. The Ukraine conflict will go down in history as the great transition in warfare. Maybe even more influential than the transition of war from trenches, the machine gun, Blitzkrieg using integrated tanks, transport, planes, artillery and missiles.
Ironically, drone warfare has made war more diffuse, but also driven soldiers back into the trenches or in the rubble of bombed out or abandoned buildings. Shades of Stalingrad, or sadly, back to Gaza. The Palestinians are doomed.
Food scarcity will be the ultimate driver of getting young men to go to fight the bankers' wars. Britain was able to man its vast imperial navy in the 1700s as food scarcity and living standards were so low back home, that youth would enlist just for the rations served on the ships, bad as they were. No wonder the HMS Bounty sailors mutinied. It wasn't that Captain Blight was so bad- that is pure Hollywood-he actually used less corporal punishment than other captains of the times-it was the women, warm climate, and plentifully food they left behind in Tahiti that was behind the mutiny. Prioritizing water for the breadfruit at the expense of the sailors didn't help matters.
But with a planet full of people, human lives will become cheap.
Will become (cheap)? Seriously? 😈
The cost of a bullet.
There is no public debt problem. You should follow Steve Keen on this topic. Just a friendly advice from an insider.
Ecological overshoot and Modern Monetary Theory - terms that must not be mentioned, lest they disturb business as usual.
Also check out Michael Hudson's work and David Graeber's book 'Debt the First 5000 Years' who both explain (same as MMT) how debt works i.e. not debt = no money!
"Now, all our wise betters and elders can think of is how to totally mess global supply chains up; as if making sure they break right on schedule".
This is the silver lining in the dark cloud of the Trump presidency. The collapse of modern civilization is inevitable and, when it's over, a much smaller population will be left with a damaged world to live in. The sooner and faster collapse happens, the better that world will be.
Hear ya, especially the collapse of the stinking "Petro Dollar"
To be clear, Canadians are energy hogs per capita; residents of China and Russia are frugal by comparison.
Industrial and manufacturing output are not so great when pollution costs are deducted. No one misses outsourcing those negatives to China.
To be clear, it's COLD HERE!
You should compare Canada with Iceland, not China or Russia.
Iceland is off the charts, thanks to their geothermal resources and small population. Living on an island where a volcano can be born in your backyard has its downsides.
Canadians are spoiled children who have continuously wasted their natural resources, unlike countries less favoured by Mother Nature that have often learned the hard way to save.
Just one of the luxuries of having a small population in a large, resource rich territory. What applies to families applies to nations.
I have full confidence the US Peace President will nix the West's obsessive march to war. I also have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell.
We, humankind that is, having spent the last three centuries in a frenzy of consumption, are driven by our innate nature, to fight over the dregs of what's left..
300 years ago. we found a new way to rip resources from the planet that sustains us, and saw that as our god given right to literally render the Earth into a cash asset.
Suddenly we had the means by which the world could be bought and sold as an asset of infinity....money could expand forever.
Wars became a prime industry, supporting factories instread of the blacksmith
and we believed the idiots who told us this was so.. (we were idiots too)
wealth was limitless!---we ignored the fact that this has been the line of the Ponzi salesman, since before we knew what Ponzi schemes were.
MAGA has become the rallying cry of delusion.
(But George Bush said: The American way of Life is non negotiable---so the Don's stupidity is not exclusive)
The wars of the past century were not separate events, but waves on the same sea, the rising tide of desperation as each nation recognises what the future holds, and is determined not to drown with the rest.
Wars are simply the reactions of denial, that our way of life is over, and the planet will no longer tolerate our depredations.
Collapse has become the last great business opportunity, because we must spend the last of our wealth in wars of denial.
I've just published a new book, defining where it all started, and how:
The Iron Men of Shropshire, How they put the world to work
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Iron-Men-Shropshire-They-World/dp/1398122394
I remember Obama said “the American way of life is non negotiable” in his first inaugural speech. Or maybe, “we will not apologize for the American way of life”. Either one, my heart fell and I knew we were in for more of the same empire shenanigans.
It was actually George H W Bush who said, “The American way of life is not up for negotiation” before the 1992 Rio Earth Summit.
100 % onto it.
I love your well researched detail and interpretation. Buying you a coffee for sure. Also my take on the scene here, coming to you from New Zealand
https://open.substack.com/pub/bazcaitcheon/p/obedience-is-the-enemy?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Cuba is the perfect example of what will happen. We’ll be driving around in 55 Chevys put together with spare parts.
I’d be more than happy to drive around in a ‘57 Chevy and grow my own food. Better sell my yard-less, suburban comfort-cell, get out of this sub-division and onto a little land to do so! Pretty busy at the moment though - how much time we got? 😂
I don’t know but if you start now you’ll have more of it.
and hauled by mules or slaves for lack of gasoline.
Cuba after the collapse of the USSR is a very good guide to where we all might be if this comes to pass, as suggested by the author. Basically every square inch of soil was turned over to growing food. They survived, just about, but kind of regressed about 30 years, overnight. They also had skill sets most of us have long since lost. I rate our chances as a good deal worse than theirs then. I saw the same thing in Greece during the 2010s - and again they survived, because they had family homes and land to retreat to, and a considerable sense of community. You can survive on lentils and neighbours.
@B: A big thank you for another very interesting post, which is well-argued.
Even though I have little respect for the recipes of economical cooking —a false science elevated to the status of religion by the high priests of those in power— I still appreciate a well-reasoned argument.
No matter what angle you approach our society predicament from, you will always arrive at the conclusion that war is inevitable since infinite growth being impossible, it must come to an end.
You are one of the few to rightly proclaim that recession has already begun since the peak of oil production. I believe that more and more of our worthless politicians are sensing this reality. However, this time, there is nowhere for the rats to jump from the ship (planet).
So, how do we manage de-growth? These retarded individuals have already failed miserably in managing growth; how can we expect them to guide us out of this rut? Aside from sending thoughts and prayers, a global pandemic, or the ultimate solution to any economic crisis (i.e. war) there is no invocation (tools) in their religion of economics that allows for that.
I'll leave the first option to the orange clown, and the second is too uncertain since viruses have no religion. So, it seems war will be the answer, but this time with the intent of destroying as many lives as possible, preferably civilians.
But when? It depends on the first domino to fall...
Assassination of Vladimir Putin in Alaska by Sarah Palin?
I have a theory:
Zombies in apocalypse movies are a metaphor for starving people.
Notice they are always black.
Your understanding of energy economics is out of date
Also a part you missed in chinese deflation was the absolutely ballooning government spending. If the public expenditure were to reduce the deflation would become just as acute. Anyways great article on the chinese economy. Usually such type of article are one, trashing china and believe firmly in greatness of the US or two, absolutely glazing china where no matter what china does it is greatest achievement of mankind. The 2nd type is much more prominent on substack. It is great to see somebody being just honest.
*even more acute
QUOTE: "The fundamental mistake the west made, and what the Chinese economy foolishly repeated was attempting infinite growth on a finite planet."
We need to be clear about one thing: historically speaking, the Chinese at first emphatically did NOT want to adopt the modern industrial narrative at all. The very notion of trading in their traditional way of life and traditional way of thinking for a way of life and a way of thinking advocated by foreign barbarians would have struck the (premodern) Chinese as beyond ludicrous. So why did they eventually adopt the modern industrial narrative, then? Because if they didn't, then it would have been easy for those who did to TRAMPLE on them, as the Europeans and the Japanese did during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The brute reality is that, while in the long run the modern industrial narrative (which takes infinite growth as a given, of course) is indeed a recipe for devastation and ruin, in the short run it does yield enormous material power. Power which enables you to trample on others -- or avoid being trampled upon. The Chinese were not fools. They were FORCED to take that path. They had no other choice. (I shall assume letting oneself continue to be trampled upon is not a viable choice for anyone.) And China's story was probably repeated in many if not most other non-Western cultures, too.
The West is the main culprit behind what China has become today. And the Devil may pay well in the short run, but the long run is now.
The process you're describing is not "Europe's fault", and it is mistaken to believe Europe is the culprit in this process. In fact, Europe was itself a victime of that same logic through which China was forced to join the modern extractive logic.
The driving force is simple: any power that focuses on short term maximised gain will find itself more powerful than others, and will overtake them. Thus, others will either be conquered or destroyed, or they will adjust to maximise their own efficiency in order to become able to compete and to retain autonomy.
.
Europe was characterised by multiple actors in close proximity and in constant competition. It is how the extractivist and performance-focuses model emerged. Once it had settle, Europe was is such a position of advantage that it could conquer the world. Also, conquering the world was a way to avoid direct confrontation between European nations while they had acquired such massive power. It is only once they had conquered the world, that European nations fell into the general fight against one another again, and it almost resulted in continental suicide. One may argue that World War One kicked started the process of European demise.
.
As European nations had been forced to join into the extractivist model to compete with one another as to escape being dominated, their spread over the world forced other powers to join the race: the US, Russia, Japan... and just a bit later, China. As to overcome European domination. That is, as to compete with the over-efficient extractivist model in order to seek survival and an ability to maintain autonomy.
Exactly as had applied to European nations first.
.
The process of Modernity hit Europe first. European were victims of it first. It is certainly an accident of History, that a few critical technological and organisational innovation were made in Europe which resulted in kickstarting the whole process. Most probably, it would have ended up happening somewhere else, and quite possibly in China, had Europe missed it. It could have happened later, giving human civilisation a longer lifespan. But it would have occured ultimately.
Very very interesting and echoes much of what I have been pondering. It certainly has prompted us to worry more about learning to grow food than keeping up with the jones'.