Life In The Empty Quarter
Beyond The Mordor Economy - Part II
Last week we discussed how the world economy has turned into a real life version of Mordor, and how it’s on an unstoppable march towards what I call the Empty Quarter, driven by a rapid increase in entropy. This week we will examine what that Empty Quarter might look like, how we will most likely get there, but most importantly, how it’s not the end of the world. As I said last week: we have to look beyond Mount Doom, and although we might not like what we see there, we have no other choice than to adapt to those new circumstances. These essays thus serve the important purpose to lay out what is still possible, what are the dangers along the road, and how we could navigate those in the decades and centuries ahead.
On 23-24 April 2026, the World Adaptation Forum will take place in Budapest, where speakers from all across the globe will be discussing how the unraveling climate and the collapse of economic myths affect communities, and most importantly what are the paths towards resilience and renewal. This is not just another academic gathering—it is a space for truth-telling, deep listening and brave education. I will be attending as one of the moderators, but you can also join the forum online and hear from some of the leading voices, who are working tirelessly towards a state of planetary well-being and improving human futures. As a valued reader of this blog you can use a special coupon code (THS20) via this link (offering a 20% discount from the Online Access ticket type) and support this important initiative. Be part of the conversation.
Thank you for reading The Honest Sorcerer. If you value this article or any others please share and consider a subscription, or perhaps buying a virtual coffee. At the same time allow me to express my eternal gratitude to those who already support my work — without you this site could not exist.
Recap
Before we delve deep into the topic, let’s review quickly the grounding principles first (laid out in detail in Beyond The Mordor Economy):
Machines, and civilizations writ large, need high grade energy to operate efficiently. The higher the temperature, electricity (or other form of energy) gradient, the higher value it represents for society.
Fossil fuels and electricity (once generated) are both sources of high grade energy. Wind, solar irradiation, geothermal, hydro are all low grade energy resources.
Downgrading a high grade energy resource (e.g. burning fossil fuels in an engine) is cheap, easy—and wasteful. Upgrading a low grade source of energy (e.g. sunlight) into high grade electricity, on the other hand, is hard, costly, material intensive—and even more wasteful.
The same is true for raw materials: extracting high grade ores (with high metal contents), or high quality, easy-to-get coal, oil, and natural gas, is cheap and profitable. On the flip side, low grade, depleted material resources need more and more energy and technology to get.
Energy and matter cannot be created nor destroyed—only changed in form. With that said, every material and energy transformation comes at the cost of producing waste heat and material waste streams. In other words: material and energy use—while creating order temporarily—ends up increasing disorderliness (or entropy) on a far larger scale. Think: degrading a once rich mineral deposit or energy resource and turning much of it into waste streams and pollution. Resource depletion, worsening energy returns on investment, and the damage to the environment are thus a direct, physical consequence of material and energy use—a.k.a. technology—not something we can choose to avoid.
Degradation, or in other words: a rise in entropy, is the natural order of things. Everything, the Universe included, drifts towards a dead state, where all the high energy gradients and concentrated materials will have been dissipated. This is what gives time a direction: pointing from a highly organized state towards a maximally disorganized, homogeneous one.
Complex societies, thanks to their increased energy throughput, are true entropy-accelerating machines. Rock weathering, plate tectonics, biological epochs are all happening on timescales measured in millions of years—thanks to the low grade energy used in the process (sunlight, geothermal heat) and the thick layers of insulation (the atmosphere, and Earth’s crust). Civilizations, especially modernity, use very high grade, concentrated energy sources at a very high scale, which propels them towards ever higher levels of entropy. This will ultimately take us to the Empty Quarter (where all high grade energy and minerals have been used up) a million times faster than natural processes alone would.
Building “renewables” leads to an even faster degradation of “our” resource and energy base, and thus are no solution to this predicament. Recycling also requires high grade energy, and comes with its own losses and waste streams. As much as we want, we cannot sidestep entropy. As long as we remain addicted to using high grade energy (be it from any source) we will keep increasing entropy on an exponential scale.
An Inconvenient Apocalypse
It follows from the above that the only “choice” we have is how fast we want to drive towards that dead state, where all high grade energy is lost, together with all viable mineral resources. And while that might sound depressing, this is a question every one of us should ask when thinking about our own lives. Our bodies, just like all the civilizations we built so far, are no exception to the laws of physics: entropy will eventually win, no matter what. What we do before that happens, though, is all what matters. So, while we all know that we won’t live forever, at least some of us can make lifestyle “choices” to stay healthy and live as long as possible. Going back to a civilizational level: societies and cultures can make a similar “choice.” Instead of going down the path of rapid destruction, they could continue to live as foragers for tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of years... Take, for example, the many native North American or other indigenous tribes, who decided not to engage in grain agriculture, metallurgy, mining, building cities etc.—forgoing all the destruction and suffering which follows each civilizational cycle. Or think: the Amish, deciding not to go down the path other industrial societies did.
Building civilization entirely on rapidly depleting, once rich deposits of fossil fuels and metal ores was a fools errand from the get go. Sure, it was great while concentrated ores and easy-to-get coal and oil lasted but now, at the tail end of that boom phase, it is less great to look down the abyss. This is why I use scare quotes around the word: “choice.” You see, the “decision” to build modernity was made hundreds of years ago, and was reinforced by innumerable people making innumerable tiny little “choices” about their lives. (Not that they had another “choice” than to work hard to earn a living.) And while the Amish, at least in theory, could still get together and make a decision to embrace modernity, those living in high-tech societies simply can not do the opposite. Heck, we can’t even end daylight saving time, even though no one really wants it to continue.
Problem is, that we have entered a one way street with high energy, high tech modernity. We have, for example, become utterly dependent on diesel engines powering all those agricultural, mining and transportation equipment helping us feed at least half of Earth’s present population. Modernity—per definition—is a progress trap. In pursuing “progress” through “ingenuity”, we have inadvertently introduced “problems” (resource depletion, pollution, climate change, ecosystem collapse etc.) that we lack the resources or the political will to solve. And not only for the fear of short-term losses in status, stability or quality of life, but for the very real risk that we won’t be able to feed, house and clothe billions of people should we decide to end our relationship with fossil fuels and mined minerals overnight. This is why governments and corporations are forced to keep pretending that there is a “solution” (renewables, electrification etc.) even if it goes straight against the laws of physics, violating the second law of thermodynamics in every possible way. Remember: entropy always wins in the end. Doubling down on increasing energy and technology use can thus only make matters worse on the long run. On the short term, however, it helps winning elections and secure earnings. Where is the “choice” in that?
So, instead of entering a philosophical debate how should we “decide” if were a native Indian tribe before the arrival of Europeans, let’s deal with our present reality. We have found ourselves trapped in modernity, which has now turned into a Mordor economy: unable to grow further, but unable to stop the destruction either. There is simply too much vested interest in keeping business as usual going, no matter how bad the outcome is. The maximum power principle will ensure that we will use up all available resource and energy flows in the process, and rather fight a battle to death than to give up an iota of consumption voluntarily. Such is human nature. And while there much more kind, cooperative and compassionate people than psychopaths, those who are setting the rules usually come from the latter class. The Darwinian, might makes right approach to international affairs and weaker nations is just the first sign of things to come. Again, where is the “choice” in that? Could you vote to end wars? Or at least demand a return to diplomacy? I guess you know the answer.
So, while the immediate future is unlikely to be remembered as the most pleasant period in human history, it will eventually come to an end. Remember: in the battle between platitudes and physics, physics always wins. Always. The thermodynamic analysis of our situation is clear: we are rapidly running out of high grade, high net energy resources, and what remains will have to be increasingly reinvested just to keep present levels of production possible. And since we are dealing with a steadily worsening situation when it comes to ore grades and EROI, we don’t have to wait much too long before we see the first road signs reading: Welcome to the Empty Quarter.
But how is that Empty Quarter could look like? And how do we know we are there? Well, the answer to both questions is: it depends from where you look at it. From a mining, and oil extraction perspective lush jungles, beautifully tended permaculture gardens, or wetlands with a huge biodiversity could all be part of the Empty Quarter. If there is nothing to extract, then why bother? Similarly, if less and less raw materials and energy can be extracted worldwide due to the accelerating depletion of once rich deposits, then an increasing area of once industrial nations will become part of the Empty Quarter. On the flip side, if there is less energy and raw materials, then there will be less industrial activity, fewer goods sold, fewer jobs, lower GDP… Which will most likely lead to a debt crisis and an economic depression not seen in a century, further reducing demand and supply at the same time. And since there won’t be any cheap minerals and energy left to restart the economy, the decline will become permanent.
So, while it’s nice to imagine the world voluntarily turning into an ecological utopia, civilization will most likely go through an autophagous, "self-consuming" phase first. Transitions are messy, spotty, and highly uneven—especially when it comes to decline. And while there will be some lucky regions (where, I wonder), which could transition right into a permaculture utopia, most people will live in areas struggling on multiple fronts. The slow motion collapse of industrial economies will leave behind a tremendous amount of polluted wasteland, as well as tremendous opportunities to recycle and repurpose tons of unused equipment. A scavenger economy will emerge as we reluctantly enter the Empty Quarter: a strange, mixed world increasingly made by hand but still powered by a shrinking flow of fossil fuels and an increasingly failing electric grid.
From Environmental To Extinction Level Risks
The wind-down of industrial civilization is not without environmental risks, though. While pollution from burning fossil fuels will undoubtedly decrease as we will run out of the affordable part of their reserves, there are several other sources of pollution and forms of environmental degradation with which we will have to deal with somehow in the decades and centuries ahead.
Radioactive, chemical, plastic, genetic and endocrine disrupting (PFAS, BPA etc.) pollution. None of these agents were part of the natural circulation of nutrients before the industrial age and thus no organism has evolved to cope with them. Yet, much of these will remain in circulation for thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years to come, posing a real threat to the reproductive and physical health of all life forms. Trying to minimize the harm from these sources should be paramount, even as the rest of the economy declines. (OK, I admit I’m a bit overly idealistic here.)
Deforestation. In a last ditch attempt to keep the electric grid stable, and to prevent people from freezing in their homes, the temptation to cut down most forests around densely populated areas and to incinerate them in stoves and power plants will be hard to resist. Practices, such as “coppicing” or planting fast growing trees producing high grade fuel, could at least mitigate this risk somewhat.
Uncontrolled burning of waste. Burning plastics and other household waste at low temperatures comes with the release of bisphenols and phthalates—toxins that can disrupt neurodevelopment, endocrine, and reproductive functions. Less fortunate countries already resort to this practice, either to get rid of excess waste or to reclaim valuable metals. It might not be a bad idea to invest into high-heat waste incineration plants and to get rid of as much trash as possible, before the waste collection infrastructure breaks down… Besides minimizing damage (albeit at the cost of increased CO2 emissions) these plants could produce heat and power to households while trash heaps last.
Wildfires. As things stand today, the Amazon will most likely turn into a savanna, no matter how we wish it would regenerate. It has already switched from being a carbon sink to act as a carbon source, and the likely halt of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC, aka the “Gulf stream”) will eventually seal its fate. The process risks releasing multiple gigatons of CO2; effectively replacing most emission cuts “achieved” by hitting and passing peak oil. The same goes — to a large extent — to northern taiga forests.
Sea level rise. We are talking potentially fifteen meters or more here over the course of the coming centuries, inundating all coastal cities up to the fifth story, and destroying all of “our” low-lying farmlands. Building sea walls in an era of chronic diesel fuel and raw material shortages and slow motion economic collapse is unlikely to happen. Instead, we will most likely be forced to leave these areas, permanently.
The loss of arable land. We are already past ‘peak agricultural land’, and in a polluted, post-fossil-fuel world the decline can only be expected to accelerate. Many soils are already dead (infertile) without the heavy use of fertilizers—something which simply cannot continue in the absence of natural gas, mined potash and phosphorous. Soil erosion, increasing salinity, nutrient and aquifer depletion or chemical pollution are growing problems already. On top of that, and depending on how (un-)controlled civilizational decline will be, oil wells (in the tune of millions just in the continental US alone) are at an increased risk of being left behind without proper sealing; leaking oil, fracking fluid and “produced” saline water into the ground. Mitigating these risks, slowing down the loss of farmland, and upgrading existing lands via agroecological practices should be national priorities in every country.
Global water bankruptcy. The world has entered a new stage, with more and more river basins and aquifers losing their ability to return to their historical “normal.” Droughts, shortages, and pollution episodes that once looked like temporary shocks are becoming chronic in many places, signalling a post-crisis condition summed up as ‘water bankruptcy’ in a comprehensive UN report. Restoring wetlands, cultivating less water intensive crops, together with an end to industrial and mining activities, could alleviate the situation at least somewhat.
Climate change making agriculture unviable in many places. Over the decades and centuries ahead, Earth’s climate could easily leave the stable conditions required for growing crops behind, eventually putting an end to all agriculture in many places. In fact, we are already well into the process of losing that very climatic stability we depended on for the past eight to ten millennia. The climatic fluctuations of the ice ages prevented the rise of civilizations for hundreds of thousands of years, and could do the same to us, “modern” humans. Should we be losing agriculture due to the combination of factors listed above, we will have literally no choice but to return to hunting and gathering. Currently, the combined weight of all land mammals amounts to only 6lb of meat per person—now we have one more (existential) reason to increase that ratio.
Epilogue
Barring a nuclear exchange the collapse of modernity will not be an instantaneous event, but a long, bumpy and painful transition back to a truly sustainable life. With that said, it is far from being a given that the Empty Quarter will have a place for us. We must navigate the most inconvenient, difficult and dangerous Apocalypse1 in human history. Technological, institutional, political and economic inertia leaves us with no other option. Major transitions, such as this one, are by definition too big to grasp, let alone control or affect. And while nothing is certain—especially when it comes to the future, we must be prepared to make hard choices in the decades ahead; compared to which our present day problems will look like hissy fits over irrelevant matters. It’s no hyperbole to say that we are looking at human extinction level risks here. Will we — as a species — be able to survive and thrive in the future, given the massive changes in climate and a continuous loss of biodiversity?
Over the course of the last ten millennia many civilizations came and went, but none of them left behind such a dreadful legacy as ours. Our unfettered access to high grade energy (fossil fuels) has led to a massive increase in entropy, affecting not only the economy (which is practically toast already) but the very foundations of human existence. Let’s face it, there is no way around this problem. No magic bullet, no get out of the jail free card. We left behind the quasi stable equilibrium of our species’ past when we switched to farming from hunting and gathering, and what we called progress ever since was in fact a trap from which there is no way out—only by pushing through. Once again we will have to learn that we are part of a larger biosphere, and without our technology fueled by rapidly depleting fossil fuel supplies, we will have to accept that we’re entirely at Nature’s mercy. Reforestation, restoring natural habitats, protecting wildlife and biodiversity thus gains a new dimension in this context, holding the key to our species survival. At best we will be forced to leave behind large, previously densely populated areas, to find a sustainable way to live off the rest of our time as a species. If we end up messing this planet up really bad, though, there might be no place left for us to live. At worst, the sixth mass extinction could include us, large, slow breeding hominids as well, opening up a whole new range of possibilities for those small burrowing creatures to repopulate the planet in the millions of years ahead. Just like they did after the dinosaurs left the scene.
The stakes could not be higher. Those who are trying to conserve what’s left of Nature and working to clean up the mess left behind by industrialism, are actually fighting for our species survival, whether they know it or not. It’s not guaranteed that their efforts succeed, given the sheer size of the challenges ahead, but as the saying goes, every little bit helps. Navigating the polycrisis will be the “great filter” for humanity. The prize, however, is not to become a space-faring species, but to earn the right to be re-admitted into the community of life on the only living planet we know.
Until next time,
B
Thank you for reading The Honest Sorcerer. If you value this article or any others please share and consider a subscription, or perhaps buying a virtual coffee. At the same time allow me to express my eternal gratitude to those who already support my work — without you this site could not exist.
Fortunately---we have books written to disprove your certainties of collapse and chaos.
True---these books were written by desert nomads who didn't know where the sun went at night, but knew that the stars were just holes in the blanket of night darkness.
Volcanoes told them of the burning fires waiting below for 'sinners', and bolts of lightning from an otherwise benign sky-being offered the certainty of a wrathful god if we did not repent our sins.
the physical process of birth led to the logical conclusion of 'beginning'... (it all had to start somewhere)....and such a beginning had to have been in a 'lost paradise'----to which we must strive to return.
in the meantime, we must go forth and multiply, and in so doing, consume the planet through our god-driven greed..
but religious dogma blinds us to the fact that it is that one word--greed---that will bring about our collective demise.
we each consume beyond our need, and beyond that which the planet can supply and accomodate.
Musk and Bezos et al, are just extreme examples of the human condition.....we are all infected with it to a greater or lesser degree, and whether we belive those holy books or not.
I---and millions like me, can go anywhere on a whim, and earn more in an hour than it costs to feed me for a week. I can eat exotic foods from around the world if I feel so inclined---virtually free.
That is the basic, destructive EROEI that is causing the planet's support systems to collapse---the sheer consuming weight of all of us.
But the godnuts point to their books, and insist it will go on forever.
it won't.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-More-resources-humankind-unsustainable-ebook/dp/B00D0ADPFY
I wonder why B fails to mention the coming change in human population? He alludes to it with "extinction risk" and "foraging", but never quite comes out with a clear-eyed discussion of the die-off.
Perhaps the certainty of the premature death of 99% of the global population (leaving 90 million people, at most) is too dire to confront directly, but no discussion of The Empty Quarter is complete without tackling it. Perhaps that's in Part III?
And none of our decisions about what to do tomorrow make sense without understanding what's coming. Those of us who have family or other people we care about should be making preparations to help keep them from dying. It's as simple as that.