This article is a rare bit of brain candy. It is truly refreshing to see a broad-brush systems assessment of both cause and effect of the Israeli/US vs Iran (vs everybody else) war. Regretably, for the most part, H. sapiens still operates from a relatively primitive brain that prefers myth to reality, 'thinks' in simplistic terms, and processes information at only 10 bits/second. The vast majority of people--including politicians and policy wonks--won't be able fully to appreciate the implications of a significant extension of this most recent self-afflicted blow to the human prospect. Worse still, modern techno-industrial society is locked into a socially-constructed cognitive imaginary with only tenuous links to biophysical realities outlined in this piece. Not only can we not see where we are going, the controls do not (cannot) work. If able, follow the instructions offered!
Every half way decent analyst knew what would transpire if the US and Israel engaged in their full scale surprise attacks against Iran while pretending to negotiate, attacking Iranian + allied nations civil populations & assassinating leadership personnel while simultaneously attempting to destroy their medical, defense, transport sectors and all the major economic & civil infrastructures of Iran (while ordering the 5th column attacks against Iran's law enforcement & pro government populations) as they have done.
Every half way decent analyst understood the likely outcome of Ukraine attempting ethnic cleansing of their Russian speaking population via artillery fire and an invasion of their break away Russian friendly provinces while stating they intended to both acquire nuclear weapons AND host NATO MRBM capable systems within 5 minutes missile flight time of Moscow. Any claims to the contrary are disingenuous.
Since their information feed is curated by US/Israeli intelligence, Trump, Hegseth, Rubio et alia MIGHT believe the bullshit coming out of Trump's mouth, the analysts working for CIA, Mossad, global banking/investment/finance cliques could have had no such illusions.
All of this global chaos was planned and scripted. "They" are good with it, "negotiations" by US & Israel are merely for PR towards their own populations and "head fakes" towards their opponents.
What we see is intentional destruction, economic simplification and depopulation of the worst affected areas via emigration & starvation, resulting in fragmentation and subjugation of those, starved, depopulated & economically weakened states. Followed by return to colonial style resource extraction for "The West" from those de facto re subjugated colonial possessions. In the meantime, as Dick Cheney said:
"Let us rid ourselves of the fiction that low oil prices are somehow good for the United States."
This is how "they" think they can fight a world war, contain China and maintain world dominance without QUITE releasing all that radioactivity & having world wide climate destruction as an openly fought nuclear war would.
I suspect "they" are wrong about being able to maintain these "forever" conflicts within their desired limits. Also, that billionaires assume they personally won't be greatly discommoded so "they" don't mind.
Ball is definitely in "their" court, I rather expect the newly re armed USN & Israelis to resume bombarding Iran's civil & economic infrastructures this weekend.
(Edit)
With 2 hours to go in this weekend where I predicted a resumption of attacks & provocations to keep Persian Gulf trade disconnected & related turmoil at a rolling boil? I see Trump is running his mouh:
“Strait of Hormuz: The U.S. is launching "Project Freedom" to break the blockade, which Iran claims violates the ceasefire.
Attack Threats: Trump said on Saturday that renewed strikes are a possibility if Iran does "something bad".”
An important part of Iran's strategy for prolonged conflict is to inflict a memorable economic crisis on the US, so that the US remembers not to attack Iran again in the future. The US has a habit of returning to the Middle East to start another war whenever it's politically expedient, but Iran wants future administrations to know that the economic price is too high. This deterrence doctrine has been stated explicitly.
If YOU would have listened to US fifty-five years ago WE wouldn't be in trouble NOW.
As I say all the time, it is good to finally get up to speed on collapse and the NECESSITY of creating alternatives, but the longer you wait, the faster you have to move to get up to speed. I have had the luxury of working with alternatives for over fifty-five years and so am far ahead of urban dwellers and most professionals. I am glad that B and other people are finally accepting collapse. Here are a few notes.
1) " . . . the only question remaining is how deep and severe the coming economic depression will become."
Our future is recession, depression and collapse. It has been so since the Vietnam War.
2) "Conclusion: the world economy is heading for a crash, no matter what."
Yep.
3) "Faced with massive price hikes, from diesel fuel to ammonia and phosphorus fertilizers, farmers are forced to drastically reduce application rates per hectare. This creates a fatal agronomic divergence: crops are receiving the lowest nutrient inputs precisely when climatic stress demands the highest biological resilience."
Don't confuse high yields with biological resilience in the field. 20-40 bushels/acre wheat is just fine. You do NOT need 50 bushels/acre - UNLESS you are highly capitalized and the banker is sitting on your shoulder telling you what to do. This is where production is heavily influenced by debt. I have been working with landraces for over 30 years and biological resilience to climate is a natural, physical function. High yields are just human desire for more money. Do NOT demand high yields based on high inputs of fossil fuels, fertilizers and capital. That was where the Green Revolution sold everyone a false bill of goods.
4) "An extreme under-application of fertilizers, forced by the 2026–2027 crisis guarantees a persistent “yield hangover”, a structural suppression of global agricultural productivity that will extend through 2028 to 2030."
This is ridiculous in its implications. Farmers will be able to sell more wheat at a higher price because of the demand/supply function. This is only a structural suppression if you are dependent on high capital inputs, high fertilizer inputs, high seed inputs, high labor inputs, etc. Most of the world is fed by small farmers right now. This will continue. Just because the wasteful industrial agriculture of the US goes belly up doesn't mean other farmers in Europe, Africa and Asia will suffer as much. Many will finally get a fair price for their crops. Maybe the governments of the EU will finally start listening to us small-scale farmers. Wouldn't that be nice?
5) "In 2026/27 the world still faces a 10-15% crop yield reduction. In emerging markets, local food inflation could spike by 15–25% year-on-year, driven by the compounding effects of currency depreciation against a strong US dollar, exorbitant freight costs, and local yield failures."
People will starve because of the skewed distribution system, just as they do now. About a billion people are starving already globally. (The UN cooks its numbers to keep it around 800 million.) If western consumers have to pay 20% of their income for their food instead of the 5-6% they pay now, that will be like it was in 1950, the year I was born. If you want a clean world, you are going to have to make some sacrifices. If all the McDonald's of the world go bankrupt, I would cheer.
6) "Ultimately this all boils down to economics."
Rubbish. Ultimately this all boils down to physics and human creativity. Economics is just another way for the elites to hornswoggle the people who actually produce the food.
7) "The damage has already been done to the world economy, and the only question is how deep and how long the coming crisis will be."
Yep. I am sooooo glad people are finally getting a clue. After nearly 60 years, I am willing to take off my Cassandra mask.
The world’s population in 1950 was ~2.5 Billion people. Without the proliferation of Haber Bosch NatGas guzzling production plants to make nitrogen fertiliser and Norman Borlaug’s contribution in developing high-yielding, disease-resistant, semi-dwarf wheat varieties leading to the Green Revolution, its almost certain we wouldn’t today have a population of ~8.3 Billion, with all the predicaments this number of people are causing, along with the myths of being able to support that number of people by, with if we only do this, we can continue breeding to the heights those of the likes of Elon Musk would have us believe.
It should be compulsory for all people old enough to breed to view: (4 minute) YouTube video “Something Has Got To Give - Prof. Tim Garrett in Ecosophia - Collapse and Regeneration”, followed by, Dr. Sofia Pineda Ochoa’s documentary film “GREENWASHED“🤔 E&OE
I take issue with Aurelien's statement that the US wants to destroy Iran for "revenge". Why can't the US just stay out of other countries miles away from it? 'Revenge'? Bullshit.
"These two positions can simply never be reconciled" - but there *was* an nuclear agreement, until Trump reneged on it. Plus, the late Ayatollah had a fatwa against building nukes (so his assassination only increased the chance of Iran deciding to make one).
"Aurelien's statement that the US wants to destroy Iran for "revenge".
----------
Agree, that is just the PR for the rabble/US military types.
USA ownership class/"The West" needed to destroy Iran for very real world & thoroughly modern reasons, not over grudges from a 50 years past slight to Jimmy Carter's administration (a slight the CIA & Reagan/Bush regime change cabal actually arranged for them to cause anyhow).
Iran wasn't on the Petro dollar bandwagon. See Saddam in Iraq & Khaddafi in Libya for other regimes which refused that system?
Iran didn't use the SWIFT system and traded oil for non US$ currencies, most particularly with China. See North Korea plus the rest of axis of evil?
Iran did things in West Asia which thwarted Israeli, Saudi and other Western backed oligarch/US vassal & US State Sept. plans quite regularly. Iran made life difficult for those interested in attacking Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, West bank & etc..
Iran did all those unpardonable things AND successfully regained control of their own petroleum resources from "The West"(™) for the second time.
Nobody who MATTERS gives a shit about the 1970s embassy/hostage affair the CIA arranged the timing if anymore, except a few rednecks in the military where the word "mullah" is constantly reenforced as a red flag for brain dead bulls. It's all about REAL money and power in the here & NOW.
These wars were/are horrific of course, but lying about the reasons is what enables them to keep getting away with it. The msm - tv, radio & loss-leading 'newspapers' keep the illusion going ('Western values', 'freedom', 'democracy' etc etc). That will become a harder sell as the energy crunch starts to bite and reality seeps through.
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends {intended} to use Iran’s oil {and Venezuelan} as that leverage.“?
Remembering the Walmart debacle of the security guard getting trampled to death in the herd stampede to purchase the limited supply TVs? It's going to be horrendous when the Cheetos and Cheese Whiz run out. Maybe the Republicans and Bobby Jr can prevent this by restricting SNAP purchases of them.
God forbid the Budweiser runs out.
Our elected officials - priorities in order and always thinking ahead!
If you want to peer into the abyss Toma, as to what happens when the energy just to live becomes a do or die situation then read Kurt Dahl’s “An American Famine”. But before reading Dahl’s book I recommend as a primer: Alice J Friedemann’s (nonfiction book) “When Trucks Stop Running - Energy and the Future of Transportation”.
Here’s a short synopsis of “An American Famine”
As America's fragile empire crumbles under the weight of insatiable consumption and ecological ruin, “An American Famine” unleashes a nightmarish chronicle of societal disintegration that claws at the soul. What begins as an insidious downward spiral. Supply chains fracturing, farmlands withering into dust, and cities swelling with the desperate and the destitute; escalates into a cataclysmic year where the grid fails. Marauding gangs descend upon the starving masses, and the veneer of civilisation shreds to reveal the primal beast within humanity. Through a mosaic of shattered voices; widowed mothers clawing through rubble for scraps, once respectable men turned cannibals in the flickering light of burning suburbs, and hollow-eyed survivors bartering their last shreds of humanity. Kurt Dahl paints a harrowing tableau of anarchy's embrace, where famine doesn't just empty bellies but devours the very essence of the American dream, leaving only echoes of screams in the endless barren night.
As you might detect Toma, it’s a dark and haunting story, one that’s not for those of a sensitive disposition. The book opens with a quote by Thomas Hobbes, one we should all heed, “Hell is the truth seen too late.
Anyone who believes they could survive in such a dire situation, this book will test whether they truly have what it takes to survive🤔
Robin Hobb — “Death is always less painful and easier than life! You speak true. And yet we do not, day to day, choose death. Because ultimately, death is not the opposite of life, but the opposite of choice."
Philosophy With a View - “Socrates - The HEMLOCK CONTROVERSY!”🤔
Thanks for a thoughtful comment. I think we're going to get a taste of it next harvest (6 months). Reality in my opinion is when it all comes down it's back to Hunter gatherer society. I'm living in Hawaii which had a slightly advanced form of H/G society and they did quite well. My most optimistic outlook is for a few indigenous people to carry on, but that will be difficult because most of their knowledge and culture has been destroyed (by the white man) and climate change thrown in for another kick in the ass.
I think the movie "Threads" is a realistic fast track for what is about to happen, climate change or nuclear war, take your pick, slow or quick collapse . If you haven't seen it, it's free on YouTube.
I've seen what people do when toilet paper and bottled water runs out before a new england blizzard. It's not pretty.
Hi Toma, I viewed the film “Threads” many moons ago. The collapse of civilisation as depicted in “Threads” as you will know was due to MAD’ness. What happens to the average person in MAD’ness is near instantaneous, for those seeking refuge in underground survival bunkers, that manage to reach them in time, they may escape the immediate effects of MAD but on eventually surfacing they’ll have to deal with effects of radiation, destroyed civilisational infrastructure, and that will include state medical assistance, and most probably an evolving nuclear winter with all that entails.
The best thing is not to survive MAD but to be as near as possible to the point of mass destruction. Whereas the effects of a heating planet, access to and gradually unaffordable energy and the poisoning of the environment could take decades to reach its full effect, so the younger you are and the longer you live the more likely you are to look back on what are literally now the good old days.
The one thing “Threads” (MAD’ness) and over population, lack of energy and it’s feedstocks (there is 10 calories of fossil fuel in 1 calorie of food), collapse of industrial civilisation, a heating planet coupled with environmental pollution, is that they both result in (humanity) regressing and plateauing in a 17th century feudal lifestyle. WASF😮🤔 E&OE
I've been advocating dandelion wine. It's considered a weed, free and the Roundup will disappear from lack of fossil fuel. It's also edible (very good!) AND medicinal.
I read an article about how attacking Iranian South Pars? has created blackouts in Iraq. A problem not mentioned is that even if the U.S. were to pull back tomorrow internal rivalries and conflicts in the Middle East might explode preventing the Strait of Hormuz from opening--no matter what the U.S. does. The unintended consequences are off the charts, if what you went over aren't enough.
I read that Iraq has resorted to exporting oil by tanker truck, driving it across Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Like something out of Mad Max, right? It's the last resort of an Iraqi government that depends on oil exports for virtually all of its funds.
Irony will be unavoidable when the Shiite areas which Israel had scripted to be "Greater Israel" from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon become part of Iran in fact, if not in name.
Although perhaps we should not take this line of thought too far for fear of distressing the Turks… all of whose country, as well as Egypt, Syria, and Palestine also belonged to the Persian Empire.
We should learn by necessity, to live with far less energy, and if we can’t then we end up like every other species that comes across a large finite source of energy, when it runs out.
For those who don’t understand this, they should view Dr. B Sidney Smith’s from his video series HTETEOTW = How To Enjoy The End Of The World:
This may feel like an end times scenario for a lot of city-domiciled folk who are used to an unending supply of food, fuel and fun delivered by mysterious means to their nearest gas station, super market or costco.
For the overwhelming majority of humams on planet Earth who, everyday, work with their hands to grow food and make needed things, it is not necessarily a big deal. Night follows day, babies are born, food is grown rather than bought and life goes on. Often it's struggle street, often it's hard slogging but always it has been the way of living in the world for most of humanity for all of history.
Fact of the matters that western people live lives seperated from life, glamoured by cheap energy, fake money and idle distractions they eagerly suck up to feed empty lives going nowhere. This bullshit war is just another iteration of all the previous bullshit wars entitled folk have waged since year one.
There is no answer beyond the simple fact that wr are born, we live, we die. Some people are pricks, some are victims and most of us just go along with the crowd, it's easier that way, until it's not. Think the average German in 1930s Europe. That's the exemplar
Given that the average IQ is 100, it's doubtful that amything will change anytime soon. We may claim to be the most intelligent species on the planet but we are deeply dumb when it comes down to the nitty gritty.
*Many* rural farmers in *many* countries also depend upon fertilizer and/or diesel. There is no clear line in dependence upon modern systems between city dwellers & rural folk.
I've lived the last 25 years in several US rural areas. With few exceptions, WalMart is the supply chain of choice (for food & everything else) and soybeans or feed corn are, by far, the only calories being produced.
You could almost be describing Steve the early days as described in Kurt Dahl’s book, should you consider reading it I recommend as a primer: Alice J Friedemann’s (nonfiction book) “When Trucks Stop Running - Energy and the Future of Transportation”.
“An American Famine” a short synopsis:
As America's fragile empire crumbles under the weight of insatiable consumption and ecological ruin, “An American Famine” unleashes a nightmarish chronicle of societal disintegration that claws at the soul. What begins as an insidious downward spiral. Supply chains fracturing, farmlands withering into dust, and cities swelling with the desperate and the destitute; escalates into a cataclysmic year where the grid fails. Marauding gangs descend upon the starving masses, and the veneer of civilisation shreds to reveal the primal beast within humanity. Through a mosaic of shattered voices; widowed mothers clawing through rubble for scraps, once respectable men turned cannibals in the flickering light of burning suburbs, and hollow-eyed survivors bartering their last shreds of humanity. Kurt Dahl paints a harrowing tableau of anarchy's embrace, where famine doesn't just empty bellies but devours the very essence of the American dream, leaving only echoes of screams in the endless barren night.
As you might detect Steve, it’s a dark and haunting story, one that’s not for those of a sensitive disposition. The book opens with a quote by Thomas Hobbes, one we should all heed, “Hell is the truth seen too late.
Anyone who believes they could survive in such a dire situation, this book will test whether they truly have what it takes to survive🤔
"Grow some vegetables if you want, but don’t think it will save you."
Vegetable gardening is a hobby.
You need carbohydrate, protein, and fat. Most vegetables don't have much of any of those.
Plant potatoes for carbs. They are dead simple. Hill them. You can grow them in little space. I had some expanded metal cages, about three feet tall and wide, joined by 1x1 with screws. I put seed potatoes in the bottom, then kept raising the soil as they grew. Before first killing frost, I took the screws out, and the "potato tower" came apart, with potatoes through the entire height!
Plant legumes for protein. Scarlet runners are dead simple, and you can even do them on a high-rise balcony. But if you have room, grow a variety. These are incomplete proteins; they can complement potato protein, but better would be some grain, which is a lot of work.
Getting quality fat out of soil is not easy. Perennials like nuts are the best, but they take years.
If you have access to at least a quarter acre of grass or browse, goats can fill both protein and quality fat nicely! However little pasture you have, cross-fence it and rotate the goats. Goats are social… you need at least two. Many municipalities will let you keep goats.
If I were just starting out, I'd focus on protein and fat first. Carbs are easier. And do whatever you can to have a couple goats! Then, you can feed yourself.
I’m from Australia and we have often ridden out bad times due to our isolation and mineral/agricultural wealth. But seeing our level of risk just on fertiliser/herbicide availability alone is horrifying. I didn’t realise our crops are maximised for growth and not resilience and hardiness. It makes sense, of course, the market’s prime consideration is profits underpinned by a presumption of endless fertiliser and herbicides access The last El Niño caused the largest bush fire the east coast of Australia has ever experienced (in living history). I actually dread the coming fire season.
The following is highly amoral speculation, but I think is worth discussing:
About your suggestion to pay down debt and get a certified financial advisor, I can't help feeling uneasy: if we expect collapse, isn't all money dedicated to pay down debt better used on anything else?
My guess is that collapse is still early and progressing slowly so that the ability of creditors (banks) to enforce the payment of the debts is still significant, but at some point things will become bad enough that outlasting the creditors will become a realistic strategy. How much years until we get there?
"Tax profits made on commodity trading, heavily (independent from what happens with that money, whether it’s reinvested or not). Use this revenue to subsidize fuel for farming, food delivery and to help the most vulnerable."
This article is a rare bit of brain candy. It is truly refreshing to see a broad-brush systems assessment of both cause and effect of the Israeli/US vs Iran (vs everybody else) war. Regretably, for the most part, H. sapiens still operates from a relatively primitive brain that prefers myth to reality, 'thinks' in simplistic terms, and processes information at only 10 bits/second. The vast majority of people--including politicians and policy wonks--won't be able fully to appreciate the implications of a significant extension of this most recent self-afflicted blow to the human prospect. Worse still, modern techno-industrial society is locked into a socially-constructed cognitive imaginary with only tenuous links to biophysical realities outlined in this piece. Not only can we not see where we are going, the controls do not (cannot) work. If able, follow the instructions offered!
"follow the instructions offered!"
1) Get at least a half-tank of gas away from any population centre.
2) Grow food. If you never have before, it's going to take several seasons to make it work.
3) Collapse now! Avoid the rush!
Brilliant https://substack.com/home/post/p-186175181
Actually this https://thelongconvergence.substack.com/p/eroei-the-overlooked-ratio
And https://thelongconvergence.substack.com/p/when-the-giants-fell
And https://thelongconvergence.substack.com/p/kings-of-the-oil-age
Every half way decent analyst knew what would transpire if the US and Israel engaged in their full scale surprise attacks against Iran while pretending to negotiate, attacking Iranian + allied nations civil populations & assassinating leadership personnel while simultaneously attempting to destroy their medical, defense, transport sectors and all the major economic & civil infrastructures of Iran (while ordering the 5th column attacks against Iran's law enforcement & pro government populations) as they have done.
Every half way decent analyst understood the likely outcome of Ukraine attempting ethnic cleansing of their Russian speaking population via artillery fire and an invasion of their break away Russian friendly provinces while stating they intended to both acquire nuclear weapons AND host NATO MRBM capable systems within 5 minutes missile flight time of Moscow. Any claims to the contrary are disingenuous.
Since their information feed is curated by US/Israeli intelligence, Trump, Hegseth, Rubio et alia MIGHT believe the bullshit coming out of Trump's mouth, the analysts working for CIA, Mossad, global banking/investment/finance cliques could have had no such illusions.
All of this global chaos was planned and scripted. "They" are good with it, "negotiations" by US & Israel are merely for PR towards their own populations and "head fakes" towards their opponents.
What we see is intentional destruction, economic simplification and depopulation of the worst affected areas via emigration & starvation, resulting in fragmentation and subjugation of those, starved, depopulated & economically weakened states. Followed by return to colonial style resource extraction for "The West" from those de facto re subjugated colonial possessions. In the meantime, as Dick Cheney said:
"Let us rid ourselves of the fiction that low oil prices are somehow good for the United States."
This is how "they" think they can fight a world war, contain China and maintain world dominance without QUITE releasing all that radioactivity & having world wide climate destruction as an openly fought nuclear war would.
I suspect "they" are wrong about being able to maintain these "forever" conflicts within their desired limits. Also, that billionaires assume they personally won't be greatly discommoded so "they" don't mind.
Ball is definitely in "their" court, I rather expect the newly re armed USN & Israelis to resume bombarding Iran's civil & economic infrastructures this weekend.
(Edit)
With 2 hours to go in this weekend where I predicted a resumption of attacks & provocations to keep Persian Gulf trade disconnected & related turmoil at a rolling boil? I see Trump is running his mouh:
“Strait of Hormuz: The U.S. is launching "Project Freedom" to break the blockade, which Iran claims violates the ceasefire.
Attack Threats: Trump said on Saturday that renewed strikes are a possibility if Iran does "something bad".”
An important part of Iran's strategy for prolonged conflict is to inflict a memorable economic crisis on the US, so that the US remembers not to attack Iran again in the future. The US has a habit of returning to the Middle East to start another war whenever it's politically expedient, but Iran wants future administrations to know that the economic price is too high. This deterrence doctrine has been stated explicitly.
And they have been executing on it for a long time, effectually.
If YOU would have listened to US fifty-five years ago WE wouldn't be in trouble NOW.
As I say all the time, it is good to finally get up to speed on collapse and the NECESSITY of creating alternatives, but the longer you wait, the faster you have to move to get up to speed. I have had the luxury of working with alternatives for over fifty-five years and so am far ahead of urban dwellers and most professionals. I am glad that B and other people are finally accepting collapse. Here are a few notes.
1) " . . . the only question remaining is how deep and severe the coming economic depression will become."
Our future is recession, depression and collapse. It has been so since the Vietnam War.
2) "Conclusion: the world economy is heading for a crash, no matter what."
Yep.
3) "Faced with massive price hikes, from diesel fuel to ammonia and phosphorus fertilizers, farmers are forced to drastically reduce application rates per hectare. This creates a fatal agronomic divergence: crops are receiving the lowest nutrient inputs precisely when climatic stress demands the highest biological resilience."
Don't confuse high yields with biological resilience in the field. 20-40 bushels/acre wheat is just fine. You do NOT need 50 bushels/acre - UNLESS you are highly capitalized and the banker is sitting on your shoulder telling you what to do. This is where production is heavily influenced by debt. I have been working with landraces for over 30 years and biological resilience to climate is a natural, physical function. High yields are just human desire for more money. Do NOT demand high yields based on high inputs of fossil fuels, fertilizers and capital. That was where the Green Revolution sold everyone a false bill of goods.
4) "An extreme under-application of fertilizers, forced by the 2026–2027 crisis guarantees a persistent “yield hangover”, a structural suppression of global agricultural productivity that will extend through 2028 to 2030."
This is ridiculous in its implications. Farmers will be able to sell more wheat at a higher price because of the demand/supply function. This is only a structural suppression if you are dependent on high capital inputs, high fertilizer inputs, high seed inputs, high labor inputs, etc. Most of the world is fed by small farmers right now. This will continue. Just because the wasteful industrial agriculture of the US goes belly up doesn't mean other farmers in Europe, Africa and Asia will suffer as much. Many will finally get a fair price for their crops. Maybe the governments of the EU will finally start listening to us small-scale farmers. Wouldn't that be nice?
5) "In 2026/27 the world still faces a 10-15% crop yield reduction. In emerging markets, local food inflation could spike by 15–25% year-on-year, driven by the compounding effects of currency depreciation against a strong US dollar, exorbitant freight costs, and local yield failures."
People will starve because of the skewed distribution system, just as they do now. About a billion people are starving already globally. (The UN cooks its numbers to keep it around 800 million.) If western consumers have to pay 20% of their income for their food instead of the 5-6% they pay now, that will be like it was in 1950, the year I was born. If you want a clean world, you are going to have to make some sacrifices. If all the McDonald's of the world go bankrupt, I would cheer.
6) "Ultimately this all boils down to economics."
Rubbish. Ultimately this all boils down to physics and human creativity. Economics is just another way for the elites to hornswoggle the people who actually produce the food.
7) "The damage has already been done to the world economy, and the only question is how deep and how long the coming crisis will be."
Yep. I am sooooo glad people are finally getting a clue. After nearly 60 years, I am willing to take off my Cassandra mask.
The world’s population in 1950 was ~2.5 Billion people. Without the proliferation of Haber Bosch NatGas guzzling production plants to make nitrogen fertiliser and Norman Borlaug’s contribution in developing high-yielding, disease-resistant, semi-dwarf wheat varieties leading to the Green Revolution, its almost certain we wouldn’t today have a population of ~8.3 Billion, with all the predicaments this number of people are causing, along with the myths of being able to support that number of people by, with if we only do this, we can continue breeding to the heights those of the likes of Elon Musk would have us believe.
It should be compulsory for all people old enough to breed to view: (4 minute) YouTube video “Something Has Got To Give - Prof. Tim Garrett in Ecosophia - Collapse and Regeneration”, followed by, Dr. Sofia Pineda Ochoa’s documentary film “GREENWASHED“🤔 E&OE
High yields are now essential to feeding an overshooting population. We should NEVER have had the stupid green revolution....
I take issue with Aurelien's statement that the US wants to destroy Iran for "revenge". Why can't the US just stay out of other countries miles away from it? 'Revenge'? Bullshit.
"These two positions can simply never be reconciled" - but there *was* an nuclear agreement, until Trump reneged on it. Plus, the late Ayatollah had a fatwa against building nukes (so his assassination only increased the chance of Iran deciding to make one).
(quote)
"Aurelien's statement that the US wants to destroy Iran for "revenge".
----------
Agree, that is just the PR for the rabble/US military types.
USA ownership class/"The West" needed to destroy Iran for very real world & thoroughly modern reasons, not over grudges from a 50 years past slight to Jimmy Carter's administration (a slight the CIA & Reagan/Bush regime change cabal actually arranged for them to cause anyhow).
Iran wasn't on the Petro dollar bandwagon. See Saddam in Iraq & Khaddafi in Libya for other regimes which refused that system?
Iran didn't use the SWIFT system and traded oil for non US$ currencies, most particularly with China. See North Korea plus the rest of axis of evil?
Iran did things in West Asia which thwarted Israeli, Saudi and other Western backed oligarch/US vassal & US State Sept. plans quite regularly. Iran made life difficult for those interested in attacking Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, West bank & etc..
Iran did all those unpardonable things AND successfully regained control of their own petroleum resources from "The West"(™) for the second time.
Nobody who MATTERS gives a shit about the 1970s embassy/hostage affair the CIA arranged the timing if anymore, except a few rednecks in the military where the word "mullah" is constantly reenforced as a red flag for brain dead bulls. It's all about REAL money and power in the here & NOW.
Indeed. If anyone does a search for 'African Gold Dinar', the real reason for the attack on Libya is obvious.
Here is one brief summary: https://millenium-state.com/blog/2019/05/03/the-dinar-gold-the-real-reason-for-gaddafis-murder/
These wars were/are horrific of course, but lying about the reasons is what enables them to keep getting away with it. The msm - tv, radio & loss-leading 'newspapers' keep the illusion going ('Western values', 'freedom', 'democracy' etc etc). That will become a harder sell as the energy crunch starts to bite and reality seeps through.
When little people in "The West"(™) get hungry, perhaps they can eat billionaires? Those seem to have reproduced past the range's carrying capacity.
The ‘tail’ doesn't wag the ‘dog’?
Existential threat?
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends {intended} to use Iran’s oil {and Venezuelan} as that leverage.“?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
Remembering the Walmart debacle of the security guard getting trampled to death in the herd stampede to purchase the limited supply TVs? It's going to be horrendous when the Cheetos and Cheese Whiz run out. Maybe the Republicans and Bobby Jr can prevent this by restricting SNAP purchases of them.
God forbid the Budweiser runs out.
Our elected officials - priorities in order and always thinking ahead!
If you want to peer into the abyss Toma, as to what happens when the energy just to live becomes a do or die situation then read Kurt Dahl’s “An American Famine”. But before reading Dahl’s book I recommend as a primer: Alice J Friedemann’s (nonfiction book) “When Trucks Stop Running - Energy and the Future of Transportation”.
Here’s a short synopsis of “An American Famine”
As America's fragile empire crumbles under the weight of insatiable consumption and ecological ruin, “An American Famine” unleashes a nightmarish chronicle of societal disintegration that claws at the soul. What begins as an insidious downward spiral. Supply chains fracturing, farmlands withering into dust, and cities swelling with the desperate and the destitute; escalates into a cataclysmic year where the grid fails. Marauding gangs descend upon the starving masses, and the veneer of civilisation shreds to reveal the primal beast within humanity. Through a mosaic of shattered voices; widowed mothers clawing through rubble for scraps, once respectable men turned cannibals in the flickering light of burning suburbs, and hollow-eyed survivors bartering their last shreds of humanity. Kurt Dahl paints a harrowing tableau of anarchy's embrace, where famine doesn't just empty bellies but devours the very essence of the American dream, leaving only echoes of screams in the endless barren night.
As you might detect Toma, it’s a dark and haunting story, one that’s not for those of a sensitive disposition. The book opens with a quote by Thomas Hobbes, one we should all heed, “Hell is the truth seen too late.
Anyone who believes they could survive in such a dire situation, this book will test whether they truly have what it takes to survive🤔
In such an event, it will be important to have a, um, decided-upon method of exit.
I hear bad things about water hemlock, relatively benign things about poison hemlock (think Socrates).
Just sayin'
Robin Hobb — “Death is always less painful and easier than life! You speak true. And yet we do not, day to day, choose death. Because ultimately, death is not the opposite of life, but the opposite of choice."
Philosophy With a View - “Socrates - The HEMLOCK CONTROVERSY!”🤔
Thanks for a thoughtful comment. I think we're going to get a taste of it next harvest (6 months). Reality in my opinion is when it all comes down it's back to Hunter gatherer society. I'm living in Hawaii which had a slightly advanced form of H/G society and they did quite well. My most optimistic outlook is for a few indigenous people to carry on, but that will be difficult because most of their knowledge and culture has been destroyed (by the white man) and climate change thrown in for another kick in the ass.
I think the movie "Threads" is a realistic fast track for what is about to happen, climate change or nuclear war, take your pick, slow or quick collapse . If you haven't seen it, it's free on YouTube.
I've seen what people do when toilet paper and bottled water runs out before a new england blizzard. It's not pretty.
Hi Toma, I viewed the film “Threads” many moons ago. The collapse of civilisation as depicted in “Threads” as you will know was due to MAD’ness. What happens to the average person in MAD’ness is near instantaneous, for those seeking refuge in underground survival bunkers, that manage to reach them in time, they may escape the immediate effects of MAD but on eventually surfacing they’ll have to deal with effects of radiation, destroyed civilisational infrastructure, and that will include state medical assistance, and most probably an evolving nuclear winter with all that entails.
The best thing is not to survive MAD but to be as near as possible to the point of mass destruction. Whereas the effects of a heating planet, access to and gradually unaffordable energy and the poisoning of the environment could take decades to reach its full effect, so the younger you are and the longer you live the more likely you are to look back on what are literally now the good old days.
The one thing “Threads” (MAD’ness) and over population, lack of energy and it’s feedstocks (there is 10 calories of fossil fuel in 1 calorie of food), collapse of industrial civilisation, a heating planet coupled with environmental pollution, is that they both result in (humanity) regressing and plateauing in a 17th century feudal lifestyle. WASF😮🤔 E&OE
I plan on making alcohol. When times are hard, there's always money for hooch.
I've been advocating dandelion wine. It's considered a weed, free and the Roundup will disappear from lack of fossil fuel. It's also edible (very good!) AND medicinal.
Dandelions don't contain any yeast food. It should be called "dandelion-flavoured wine."
Sugar is the yeast food in dandelion wine recipes I've seen. Where are you going to get sugar post-collapse?
Honey, if we don't destroy all the bees. Maple sugar maybe? Bee creative!
When I was a kid, most of our sugar came from sugar beets grown in the US.
These days, most of it comes from sugar cane from tropical countries.
Obesity rates in the US are at around 2/3, that's quite a cushion to work with.
The cannabals will be in heaven with all that fat!
I read an article about how attacking Iranian South Pars? has created blackouts in Iraq. A problem not mentioned is that even if the U.S. were to pull back tomorrow internal rivalries and conflicts in the Middle East might explode preventing the Strait of Hormuz from opening--no matter what the U.S. does. The unintended consequences are off the charts, if what you went over aren't enough.
I read that Iraq has resorted to exporting oil by tanker truck, driving it across Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Like something out of Mad Max, right? It's the last resort of an Iraqi government that depends on oil exports for virtually all of its funds.
If irony is king Iraq will become part of greater Iran ;)
@Max Rottersman
Irony will be unavoidable when the Shiite areas which Israel had scripted to be "Greater Israel" from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon become part of Iran in fact, if not in name.
Yes, that will be irony with a capital I!
Just as it was for centuries 2,500 years ago.
Although perhaps we should not take this line of thought too far for fear of distressing the Turks… all of whose country, as well as Egypt, Syria, and Palestine also belonged to the Persian Empire.
We should learn by necessity, to live with far less energy, and if we can’t then we end up like every other species that comes across a large finite source of energy, when it runs out.
For those who don’t understand this, they should view Dr. B Sidney Smith’s from his video series HTETEOTW = How To Enjoy The End Of The World:
“HTETEOTW Chapter 5: Ecological Overshoot”🤔
This may feel like an end times scenario for a lot of city-domiciled folk who are used to an unending supply of food, fuel and fun delivered by mysterious means to their nearest gas station, super market or costco.
For the overwhelming majority of humams on planet Earth who, everyday, work with their hands to grow food and make needed things, it is not necessarily a big deal. Night follows day, babies are born, food is grown rather than bought and life goes on. Often it's struggle street, often it's hard slogging but always it has been the way of living in the world for most of humanity for all of history.
Fact of the matters that western people live lives seperated from life, glamoured by cheap energy, fake money and idle distractions they eagerly suck up to feed empty lives going nowhere. This bullshit war is just another iteration of all the previous bullshit wars entitled folk have waged since year one.
There is no answer beyond the simple fact that wr are born, we live, we die. Some people are pricks, some are victims and most of us just go along with the crowd, it's easier that way, until it's not. Think the average German in 1930s Europe. That's the exemplar
Given that the average IQ is 100, it's doubtful that amything will change anytime soon. We may claim to be the most intelligent species on the planet but we are deeply dumb when it comes down to the nitty gritty.
*Many* rural farmers in *many* countries also depend upon fertilizer and/or diesel. There is no clear line in dependence upon modern systems between city dwellers & rural folk.
I've lived the last 25 years in several US rural areas. With few exceptions, WalMart is the supply chain of choice (for food & everything else) and soybeans or feed corn are, by far, the only calories being produced.
Point being: It's gonna be ugly for everyone.
You could almost be describing Steve the early days as described in Kurt Dahl’s book, should you consider reading it I recommend as a primer: Alice J Friedemann’s (nonfiction book) “When Trucks Stop Running - Energy and the Future of Transportation”.
“An American Famine” a short synopsis:
As America's fragile empire crumbles under the weight of insatiable consumption and ecological ruin, “An American Famine” unleashes a nightmarish chronicle of societal disintegration that claws at the soul. What begins as an insidious downward spiral. Supply chains fracturing, farmlands withering into dust, and cities swelling with the desperate and the destitute; escalates into a cataclysmic year where the grid fails. Marauding gangs descend upon the starving masses, and the veneer of civilisation shreds to reveal the primal beast within humanity. Through a mosaic of shattered voices; widowed mothers clawing through rubble for scraps, once respectable men turned cannibals in the flickering light of burning suburbs, and hollow-eyed survivors bartering their last shreds of humanity. Kurt Dahl paints a harrowing tableau of anarchy's embrace, where famine doesn't just empty bellies but devours the very essence of the American dream, leaving only echoes of screams in the endless barren night.
As you might detect Steve, it’s a dark and haunting story, one that’s not for those of a sensitive disposition. The book opens with a quote by Thomas Hobbes, one we should all heed, “Hell is the truth seen too late.
Anyone who believes they could survive in such a dire situation, this book will test whether they truly have what it takes to survive🤔
Thank you for this breakdown
Shockingly, many of my friends and family are not even remotely aware of this crisis.
"Grow some vegetables if you want, but don’t think it will save you."
Vegetable gardening is a hobby.
You need carbohydrate, protein, and fat. Most vegetables don't have much of any of those.
Plant potatoes for carbs. They are dead simple. Hill them. You can grow them in little space. I had some expanded metal cages, about three feet tall and wide, joined by 1x1 with screws. I put seed potatoes in the bottom, then kept raising the soil as they grew. Before first killing frost, I took the screws out, and the "potato tower" came apart, with potatoes through the entire height!
Plant legumes for protein. Scarlet runners are dead simple, and you can even do them on a high-rise balcony. But if you have room, grow a variety. These are incomplete proteins; they can complement potato protein, but better would be some grain, which is a lot of work.
Getting quality fat out of soil is not easy. Perennials like nuts are the best, but they take years.
If you have access to at least a quarter acre of grass or browse, goats can fill both protein and quality fat nicely! However little pasture you have, cross-fence it and rotate the goats. Goats are social… you need at least two. Many municipalities will let you keep goats.
If I were just starting out, I'd focus on protein and fat first. Carbs are easier. And do whatever you can to have a couple goats! Then, you can feed yourself.
I’m from Australia and we have often ridden out bad times due to our isolation and mineral/agricultural wealth. But seeing our level of risk just on fertiliser/herbicide availability alone is horrifying. I didn’t realise our crops are maximised for growth and not resilience and hardiness. It makes sense, of course, the market’s prime consideration is profits underpinned by a presumption of endless fertiliser and herbicides access The last El Niño caused the largest bush fire the east coast of Australia has ever experienced (in living history). I actually dread the coming fire season.
The following is highly amoral speculation, but I think is worth discussing:
About your suggestion to pay down debt and get a certified financial advisor, I can't help feeling uneasy: if we expect collapse, isn't all money dedicated to pay down debt better used on anything else?
My guess is that collapse is still early and progressing slowly so that the ability of creditors (banks) to enforce the payment of the debts is still significant, but at some point things will become bad enough that outlasting the creditors will become a realistic strategy. How much years until we get there?
This is great B and echoes much of what I've written in terms of what to do here: https://wiseresponse.substack.com/p/what-can-i-do-in-response-to-the and here: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/no-fuel-still-fed
Are you engaging with your local government officials around this: urban https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/public-forum-at-invercargill-city and rural https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/deputation-to-southland-district
I particularly like your reference to Tradable Energy Quotas TEQs which I've written about here: https://wiseresponse.substack.com/p/fair-shares-why-tradable-energy-quotas
I have been advocating for that release of detailed fuel rationing plans here's in New Zealand: https://wiseresponse.substack.com/p/open-letter-new-zealand-needs-an - hadn't got an far as thinking good raining yet, but that's a good point.
You provide such a comprehensive overview of the scale of this crisis which is both readable and mildly terrifying to consider! Thanks!
MMT and Richard Murphy explain how tax doesn't fund government spending
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPKLgUDgnH0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKoQAYPU_rE
So this is not going to work:-
"Tax profits made on commodity trading, heavily (independent from what happens with that money, whether it’s reinvested or not). Use this revenue to subsidize fuel for farming, food delivery and to help the most vulnerable."
I’m just glad I’m old and have had a good life…just need to find the perfect end
Spoken like grandma who delights in spending her children’s inheritance
Ah…. except I have no children.
Doesn't China get a say? And Japan, South Korea and so on. They have no beef with Iran , why should they get tangled up in this.
What happens if a Chinese tanker loads with Iranian oil and heads for the straight. What will Trump do?