If Iran has closed the Strait... and it is not quickly reopened... this is the end of the world.
One would assume that China, Russia, the USA and every other country on the planet ... would immediately launch Operation Open Hormuz and Destroy Iran (ya think there would not be a plan for this sort of situation? If so you are an idiot).
A massive force would already have landed in the region ... millions of men ... thousands of naval ships and fighter aircraft...
A huge ground force would have overwhelmed Iran already... the entire power structure dismantled... total curfew... all oil installations turned into military bases (as they are in Iraq)... this country would be locked down tighter than a nuns pussy.
Ya'll need to stop believing what CNNBBC is telling you ... they won't tell you the truth... they almost never do
Every single US president in my long life promised peace, but delivered war. Every day I see news reports declaring how horrible it is that we lost 6 members of our military while ignoring the growing numbers of innocent civilians. Will millions die because one pedophiles fears being held accountable?
Dennis- no they didn’t. Obama and Biden did not take us to war. When they were elected they had wars to deal with that were started by republican administrations
My book, “The Vital Villain”, was intended as an antidote to this madness. It tells the story of ancient Israel and how their continued existence as a nation was dependent on their spiritual fidelity. And because they were not faithful to their covenant, Jesus predicted they would be destroyed, which they were in AD70. Jesus predicted they would provoke a war with Rome that would destroy them, and now “Israel” and the west is provoking a war that will also destroy them
The US collapse will mean the end of the world, because they are spoiled, childish, stupid, greedy, religiously delusional (Hegseth and co are literally talking about bringing forth Armageddon to trigger the second coming of Christ, with commanders trying to brainwash the troops).
They will throw a toddler tantrum as their Empire and US dollar hegemony collapses along with the global trade that feeds them their luxury lifestyle and unleash their military and probably their nuclear bombs upon everyone not bending the knee. It’s a cultural issue that can only be combated from within, and that much needed revolution and maturing is happening way too slowly.
Although the initial carbon footprint of this regional war will be huge, Honest, it's effect might be to demonstrate to the wold the danger of delaying a transition to renewables energy sources. Israel/US decided when this war would begin but it may be Iran that decides when (and where?) it will end. The biblical Samson strategy could result in the decimation of 25% of global hydrocarbon capacity. Would this trigger massive, unplanned Degrowth that would benefit the biosphere? We shouldn't expect not to be exposed to self-serving narratives masquerading as news as truth is the first casualty of war. But does this unfolding regional unnecessary war, which is less than a week old as I type this, look and feel like that of 1914 in its potential for a troubled world that has lost it's moorings?
Diesel fuel is a primary concern because it has a much higher torque than oil does. It keeps our agriculture, asphalt for roads, long haul trucks, construction, military equipment, trains, boats, barges all use forms of diesel. The very heavy oil in Venezuela is not an easy answer to acquire it and convert to diesel.
Wait, my kids and I just wanted to bring back fish 🐟 in the Danube and Chestnut 🌰 in the Woods for more wild and healthy and also backup food - so this comes way toooo early!
Anyone paying attention to global affairs over the past few decades has understood these points for a long time, and yet here we are. Too few people care—a few hundred likes, appearances on podcasts, and despite the best efforts of a tiny few, we know our final destination is not a happy place. In many parts of the world, life has been a precarious struggle from day one. And yet, those who struggle know well what's wrong with the way the world is governed, and what's truly important. Too many US Americans are fat, well entertained, and comfortable with low-resolution information, dogma, and superstitious beliefs that provide the right neurochemical cocktail. "The choir" (the few of us engaging in the conversation) seems as powerless as always. (Profusive praise would get more likes.)
"Too many US Americans are fat, well entertained, and comfortable with low-resolution information, dogma, and superstitious beliefs that provide the right neurochemical cocktail."
.......This. Americans are no longer capable of discernment or nuance, which were never our strong points to begin with, but now......it's not even worth having attempting a conversation in far too many cases.
A tiny number of people enjoy having conversations about Overshoot, Collapse, and The Limits to Growth, and some of us feel quite heroic because of our interests. We are quite enamoured with ourselves at "having the conversation."
However:
@TheNewAtlas, Brian Berletic, sees things clearly. It's always easier to think about a supervillain, Trump, Putin, rather than confront the Beast (read my capitalist cabinet of curiosities series), or the Empire, and risk one's last Netflix series, Infotainment, or frozen pizza. Western citizens will not confront the Beast; they won't die fighting it, but they will die for it. It's quite the magic spell, and so the self-fulfilling prophecy ends in nuclear Armageddon. The Players don't care about you, but they will keep your attention from focusing on omnicide. The forever war to maintain hegemony and Empire on the world, on any resistance, will continue: ecocide, global heating, overshoot, limits to growth, and a Biblical conflagration followed by mass starvation. So let's feel good about ourselves while we can. The flames are coming to you sooner or later. Choose your medicine.
I take it you are a warfighter. The Players who make money use other people’s blood and treasure to play for the spoils that too many folks take for entertainment, truck payments, and heroic narratives that are full of shyte. Most people want to trade in peace. Of course, if the incentive is there for you, thank you for your service. Thanks for your comment.
Yours is the optimistic version of this escapade (in this case, I’m referring to the collapse of the western empire and capitalist system, which is a good thing in my mind). I actually think the US and Israel will pull out before the situation reaches your scenario, and that the Strait of Hormuz will open sooner than you think. It’s a gut feeling, based on global business interests forcing the situation to ease, and most countries realizing that the conflict being extended isn’t in their interests. And my gut feeling that Iran’s capabilities have been overestimated. We’ll see…
Certainly underestimated by the average american. I suspect the same is true of our leaders. These folks get tunnel vision, assume things that shouldnt be assumed.
An instructive read was reading how a jail responded to spice. They didnt search Amazon packages cause they assumed they were safe. Like, what? I could be a amazon seller, i think my mom sold books on amazon in the early 2010s. Lol. Such tunnel vision they couldnt see how the spice paper was getting in.
These days i think it gets in mostly cause of half assed booking processes
The Iranian War is an accelerant to collapse that will significantly exhaust and disarm the West of conventional munitions. Engaged in a conflict that cannot be won without the introduction of massive ground forces or the use of weapons of mass destruction this will become another in the long list of failed colonial wars.
I respectively disagree. Regardless of who you believe is behind it, I think we can agree on the lunacy of it all and how it is leading to the downfall of the US globally.
The risk Trump has put the world in is far more about the USA and not Israel. Israel has only a few million people. Some are highly skilled in high tech as we've seen with the cell phones exploding in Lebanon, tracking for years the daily location of Iranian leadership. Trump is about Trump and the USA, no one else IMO.
This chaos has have to been understood and desired. Flight to USD and USD denominated assets- something I'm see personally at work, continued hegemonic control of oil, oil producing regions in turmoil, domestic pacification and decoupling of productive assets from unproductive internally in westerner countries will increase.
I expect to see increased 'green-zoning' domestically where large sways of the country are ringfenced and left to wither while hubs prosper. increased domestic servailence. cost of living increase and outright shortages. People can't riot if they're hungry.
I think this is consolidation of empire, or an attempt at it but I could be and probably am wrong. Reminds me of Mirks strategy in 08 where they ran ships at a loss in the hope that they could outlast the competition.
I've seen comparative trade maps which show us about 2 years ago as the major trade partner of Africa and S. America. The current map showed China as displacing us on both continents. Regardless of day-to-day developments, China is and will eat our lunch when it comes to long-range planning.
Just like Japan has a long range view; even though their economy had tanked for a long time. Asia has this outlook, something the west needs to learn. Islamic religious fantatics also have this view. That's why they don't mind having suicide bombers and loosing civilians of having 12 year old boys go to war to fight against Iraq a few decades ago.
China has problems but has patience. Its long-range planning indicates awareness of the fragility of fossil supply, processing and shipment. The are the champ of alternative energy and battery technology. One Chinese battery manufacturer produces more in one year than all of our companies combined.
I agree with many of the assessments of much of the piece, however the aspects on China are flawed. China has moved its exports to ASEAN and away from US. Total trade with US is ~10% and Europe ~15%. Painful to lose it, but not catastrophic. It would be more problematic for Europe to lose trade from China. No doubt that China is moving more trade to ASEAN and Africa. I wonder what it will do in South America given US proximity.
But China is energy poor with respect to oil production and products, particularly diesel, which runs all heavy machinery around the world...China is good at compensating , but it will be hurt...
China’s goal is to be energy independent and totally independent in the not too distant future. They have realized nearly every goal they have set. Don’t underestimate them
“Do you want Rubio to come out and say 'We had to bolster the petrodollar and squeeze China's energy supply so we could trade oil to them for critical minerals and parts.'? That wasn't going to happen. So thus is the cover. US needed Iran taken down for these reasons, Israel for obviously different reasons, but the objectives overlapped. Jesus Ed, stooping to suggesting Israel manipulated us into war is tucker carlson / charles lindbergh level drivel.“?
This is an amazingly well written description of the consequences of the Iran War on collapse dynamics.
The thing is...
If Iran has closed the Strait... and it is not quickly reopened... this is the end of the world.
One would assume that China, Russia, the USA and every other country on the planet ... would immediately launch Operation Open Hormuz and Destroy Iran (ya think there would not be a plan for this sort of situation? If so you are an idiot).
A massive force would already have landed in the region ... millions of men ... thousands of naval ships and fighter aircraft...
A huge ground force would have overwhelmed Iran already... the entire power structure dismantled... total curfew... all oil installations turned into military bases (as they are in Iraq)... this country would be locked down tighter than a nuns pussy.
Ya'll need to stop believing what CNNBBC is telling you ... they won't tell you the truth... they almost never do
And we are committing suicide so big oil can make a buck....utter nonsense
Every single US president in my long life promised peace, but delivered war. Every day I see news reports declaring how horrible it is that we lost 6 members of our military while ignoring the growing numbers of innocent civilians. Will millions die because one pedophiles fears being held accountable?
Dennis- no they didn’t. Obama and Biden did not take us to war. When they were elected they had wars to deal with that were started by republican administrations
Yes.
Regarding religious fanatics at the helm, this is quite astonishing:
https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for
God is going to be really pissed when he finds out we started Armageddon without him.
My book, “The Vital Villain”, was intended as an antidote to this madness. It tells the story of ancient Israel and how their continued existence as a nation was dependent on their spiritual fidelity. And because they were not faithful to their covenant, Jesus predicted they would be destroyed, which they were in AD70. Jesus predicted they would provoke a war with Rome that would destroy them, and now “Israel” and the west is provoking a war that will also destroy them
It is always something, but this time it is everything.
Simplicity at it's best. Thank you.
The US collapse will mean the end of the world, because they are spoiled, childish, stupid, greedy, religiously delusional (Hegseth and co are literally talking about bringing forth Armageddon to trigger the second coming of Christ, with commanders trying to brainwash the troops).
They will throw a toddler tantrum as their Empire and US dollar hegemony collapses along with the global trade that feeds them their luxury lifestyle and unleash their military and probably their nuclear bombs upon everyone not bending the knee. It’s a cultural issue that can only be combated from within, and that much needed revolution and maturing is happening way too slowly.
The only constant in the universe is change. Buckle up.
Love your work. Thanks for this excellent assessment and insight. ❤️🥰☮️
Although the initial carbon footprint of this regional war will be huge, Honest, it's effect might be to demonstrate to the wold the danger of delaying a transition to renewables energy sources. Israel/US decided when this war would begin but it may be Iran that decides when (and where?) it will end. The biblical Samson strategy could result in the decimation of 25% of global hydrocarbon capacity. Would this trigger massive, unplanned Degrowth that would benefit the biosphere? We shouldn't expect not to be exposed to self-serving narratives masquerading as news as truth is the first casualty of war. But does this unfolding regional unnecessary war, which is less than a week old as I type this, look and feel like that of 1914 in its potential for a troubled world that has lost it's moorings?
The problem being that alternate energy is inefficient, and won't run heavy equipment, leading to much recession or depression...
I agree. The Honest Sorcerer was just on YT's Nate Hagens channel. See The Dwindling Lifeblood of Civilization.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id6W4mTPlKA
Diesel fuel is a primary concern because it has a much higher torque than oil does. It keeps our agriculture, asphalt for roads, long haul trucks, construction, military equipment, trains, boats, barges all use forms of diesel. The very heavy oil in Venezuela is not an easy answer to acquire it and convert to diesel.
Which is inevitable anyway. Read: https://www.amazon.com/Overshoot-Ecological-Basis-Revolutionary-Change-ebook/dp/B00VVH4UGG
Don't give Bezos and the broligarchs any more money!
You can download Catton for free here: https://monoskop.org/images/9/92/Catton_Jr_William_R_Overshoot_The_Ecological_Basis_of_Revolutionary_Change.pdf
Or if you want a physical artifact, look for a used one on evilBay or similar.
STARVE THE BEAST!
Thank you. Downloaded.
Wait, my kids and I just wanted to bring back fish 🐟 in the Danube and Chestnut 🌰 in the Woods for more wild and healthy and also backup food - so this comes way toooo early!
Noble goals!
Anyone paying attention to global affairs over the past few decades has understood these points for a long time, and yet here we are. Too few people care—a few hundred likes, appearances on podcasts, and despite the best efforts of a tiny few, we know our final destination is not a happy place. In many parts of the world, life has been a precarious struggle from day one. And yet, those who struggle know well what's wrong with the way the world is governed, and what's truly important. Too many US Americans are fat, well entertained, and comfortable with low-resolution information, dogma, and superstitious beliefs that provide the right neurochemical cocktail. "The choir" (the few of us engaging in the conversation) seems as powerless as always. (Profusive praise would get more likes.)
"Too many US Americans are fat, well entertained, and comfortable with low-resolution information, dogma, and superstitious beliefs that provide the right neurochemical cocktail."
.......This. Americans are no longer capable of discernment or nuance, which were never our strong points to begin with, but now......it's not even worth having attempting a conversation in far too many cases.
Your comment is a much-appreciated gift, Janet D.
A tiny number of people enjoy having conversations about Overshoot, Collapse, and The Limits to Growth, and some of us feel quite heroic because of our interests. We are quite enamoured with ourselves at "having the conversation."
However:
@TheNewAtlas, Brian Berletic, sees things clearly. It's always easier to think about a supervillain, Trump, Putin, rather than confront the Beast (read my capitalist cabinet of curiosities series), or the Empire, and risk one's last Netflix series, Infotainment, or frozen pizza. Western citizens will not confront the Beast; they won't die fighting it, but they will die for it. It's quite the magic spell, and so the self-fulfilling prophecy ends in nuclear Armageddon. The Players don't care about you, but they will keep your attention from focusing on omnicide. The forever war to maintain hegemony and Empire on the world, on any resistance, will continue: ecocide, global heating, overshoot, limits to growth, and a Biblical conflagration followed by mass starvation. So let's feel good about ourselves while we can. The flames are coming to you sooner or later. Choose your medicine.
Very wise words. And don't forget that many in the US are actively supportive of all this bombing. JC, what a Death Cult this culture is.....
So true. It’s vexing and tragic.
US "doves" want the spoils of war without the bother of war. BS.
I take it you are a warfighter. The Players who make money use other people’s blood and treasure to play for the spoils that too many folks take for entertainment, truck payments, and heroic narratives that are full of shyte. Most people want to trade in peace. Of course, if the incentive is there for you, thank you for your service. Thanks for your comment.
Yours is the optimistic version of this escapade (in this case, I’m referring to the collapse of the western empire and capitalist system, which is a good thing in my mind). I actually think the US and Israel will pull out before the situation reaches your scenario, and that the Strait of Hormuz will open sooner than you think. It’s a gut feeling, based on global business interests forcing the situation to ease, and most countries realizing that the conflict being extended isn’t in their interests. And my gut feeling that Iran’s capabilities have been overestimated. We’ll see…
I saw ONE tanker (PARIMAL) go through Hormuz yesterday. And it probably didn't get attacked because it was simply going from Kuwait to Khor Fakkan.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.3/centery:25.9/zoom:9
(The tankers are the red ones.)
Certainly underestimated by the average american. I suspect the same is true of our leaders. These folks get tunnel vision, assume things that shouldnt be assumed.
An instructive read was reading how a jail responded to spice. They didnt search Amazon packages cause they assumed they were safe. Like, what? I could be a amazon seller, i think my mom sold books on amazon in the early 2010s. Lol. Such tunnel vision they couldnt see how the spice paper was getting in.
These days i think it gets in mostly cause of half assed booking processes
The Gulf will remain closed until the economy of the USA and the economies of its vassals have been completely destroyed. Iran has no other option.
The Iranian War is an accelerant to collapse that will significantly exhaust and disarm the West of conventional munitions. Engaged in a conflict that cannot be won without the introduction of massive ground forces or the use of weapons of mass destruction this will become another in the long list of failed colonial wars.
Everything on social media is fake and dumb. They want the empire to collapse so can bring in the technate.
It’s interesting how you barely mention Israel in this mess. They are the driving force here, imo
The US is the driving force. Don't hide behind Israel.
I respectively disagree. Regardless of who you believe is behind it, I think we can agree on the lunacy of it all and how it is leading to the downfall of the US globally.
You need to accept how utterly evil your country is. It won't be missed, trust me.
Oh, absolutely, the US is evil and so is Israel. Lest you have total disregard for their genocide in Gaza?
You're the ones providing the weapons
Again, agree. You're the ones choosing to use them on innocent people
The risk Trump has put the world in is far more about the USA and not Israel. Israel has only a few million people. Some are highly skilled in high tech as we've seen with the cell phones exploding in Lebanon, tracking for years the daily location of Iranian leadership. Trump is about Trump and the USA, no one else IMO.
This chaos has have to been understood and desired. Flight to USD and USD denominated assets- something I'm see personally at work, continued hegemonic control of oil, oil producing regions in turmoil, domestic pacification and decoupling of productive assets from unproductive internally in westerner countries will increase.
I expect to see increased 'green-zoning' domestically where large sways of the country are ringfenced and left to wither while hubs prosper. increased domestic servailence. cost of living increase and outright shortages. People can't riot if they're hungry.
I think this is consolidation of empire, or an attempt at it but I could be and probably am wrong. Reminds me of Mirks strategy in 08 where they ran ships at a loss in the hope that they could outlast the competition.
I've seen comparative trade maps which show us about 2 years ago as the major trade partner of Africa and S. America. The current map showed China as displacing us on both continents. Regardless of day-to-day developments, China is and will eat our lunch when it comes to long-range planning.
Just like Japan has a long range view; even though their economy had tanked for a long time. Asia has this outlook, something the west needs to learn. Islamic religious fantatics also have this view. That's why they don't mind having suicide bombers and loosing civilians of having 12 year old boys go to war to fight against Iraq a few decades ago.
China has problems but has patience. Its long-range planning indicates awareness of the fragility of fossil supply, processing and shipment. The are the champ of alternative energy and battery technology. One Chinese battery manufacturer produces more in one year than all of our companies combined.
I agree with many of the assessments of much of the piece, however the aspects on China are flawed. China has moved its exports to ASEAN and away from US. Total trade with US is ~10% and Europe ~15%. Painful to lose it, but not catastrophic. It would be more problematic for Europe to lose trade from China. No doubt that China is moving more trade to ASEAN and Africa. I wonder what it will do in South America given US proximity.
But China is energy poor with respect to oil production and products, particularly diesel, which runs all heavy machinery around the world...China is good at compensating , but it will be hurt...
China is in fact one of the world's largest oil producers and has access to Russian oil.
China’s goal is to be energy independent and totally independent in the not too distant future. They have realized nearly every goal they have set. Don’t underestimate them
“Do you want Rubio to come out and say 'We had to bolster the petrodollar and squeeze China's energy supply so we could trade oil to them for critical minerals and parts.'? That wasn't going to happen. So thus is the cover. US needed Iran taken down for these reasons, Israel for obviously different reasons, but the objectives overlapped. Jesus Ed, stooping to suggesting Israel manipulated us into war is tucker carlson / charles lindbergh level drivel.“?
https://x.com/LMaranoid/status/2028689414147187035?s=20
You havent squeezed it, China's tankers are still passing through the Straits. Yours are being blown up.
China doesn't produce the same quality of computer chips that Taiwan does. This is one reason it wants Taiwan back.
it doesnt matter. China's chips are good enough.