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Marion Troia's avatar

Thank you for all the thoughtful writing you have given us this year. I wish you and your family and friends a warm and new year celebration and all the best in the dangerous times ahead.

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Adam Flint's avatar

I see that you still follow very closely (the equivalent of, actually) the Russian propaganda machine. "And that includes mineral resources, labor and markets for the West, and security concerns for Russia. " Are you kidding me? Who is so naive? Oh, well, of course, The "West" is the invader and aggressor for its profit, and Russia is all for peace!!! (WHAT???).The difference is that you do it more and more, under the guise of someone dealing with the real issue of energy shortage.

But with the election of Trump in the U.S.A., Russia already won its major battle along with China, to destroy democracy in the world.

How I see the future is this: there will soon be four or five big powers in this world (if we include India), and very soon after the U.S. becomes a dictatorship, only one weak democratic one (the EU, partially and for how long?)

The positions of Russia and China are already very clear as fascist and nationalist dictatorships with regional ambitions. Your last post about Georgia and Moldova refects it, and is, again, the exact narrative of their giant neighbor, Russia. Sure enough, Russia will invade Ukraine (whole, in one or two steps), then Moldova, then Georgia, then the Baltic States, then... Putin makes no mystery of his goal to rebuild the USSR. Then he will lay his eyes on the rest of Europe (taking it directly or installing puppet governments).

The same goes with China with Taiwan, then Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines, etc.

The new U.S.A. with Trump will quit NATO, give a free range to Putin in Europe, a free range to China at least in Taiwan and South Korea, and acquire its own territories. It is not a hoax when he speaks about "purchasing" Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, taking back the Panama Canal... The whole of the Americas will be more than ever the U.S. backyard or its direct possessions. Trump will keep and extend the U.S. power in ther Pacific, and, of course, will never abandon the Middle East.

The world will be carved out by these three nations. Maybe the other nuclear powers will be able to retain some independence (The UK, France, Israel, Pakistan and India). If Ukraine had kept and not relinquished its nuclear power (Ukraine had one third of the USSR nuclear capabilities) with the written assurance of Russia to not invade them and with the promise of the U.S. and the UK to protect them in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 (you should know something about that, "B"), Russia would not have touched one inch of the Ukrainian territory, and not massacred tens of thousands of people there.

I said that there will be four or five big powers remaining. Until there will be only three, probably. The only chance for the European Union to subsist is with a lot more integration and shared military. But it is not likely to happen. Maybe France and the UK will keep their independence from Russia, and maybe with a few countries around France if they can merge together (the Benelux? Italy? Spain? Germany?). But the energy challenges will be enormous. Their impoverishment is certain, but they do have enough nuclear power to deter Russia.

India is a tropical country and will be hammered, then destroyed by global heating. So, India won't matter to anyone.

Energy is everything to maintain power. Russia has plenty of it and of the best (conventional oil). The U.S.A. is currently the first world producer, shale oil representing 70% of its oil. But this will soon come to an end (in the next ten years). Shale oil is going to peak soon and then plummet more rapidly than the other types of oil (also declining in the U.S.) But the U.S. will keep, and this will be an absolute priority, the Middle Eastern oil, which is a lot more durable. China also has oil, but not enough, and no big prospect of it abroad except for Africa (but also declining). Yet China controls most of the minerals's chain supply.

Looking further, global heating will not stop at the tropics and will eventually destroy all civilizations, including these three world powers. Then, it will be another world entirely.

A nuclear winter is still a possible scenario. If so, bye bye humanity.

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