There is a growing body of evidence that the 2024–2030 period will present us with a critical juncture, upending a centuries long era of economic growth. No, it will have nothing to do with climate change or novel viruses: those two will come somewhat later. Missing entirely from mainstream discourse there is a greatly overlooked side of our predicament, which will set a nice little ‘game of musical chairs’ in motion most probably around 2025. Fasten your seat belts, while you can.
Climate Change is bullshit... man has minimal impact on the climate...
In any even why worry about it - even if it was true there is nothing to be done ... and soon we'll have clear blue skies... cuz that is what collapse will bring.
I speculate that Texas and Louisiana holding the last of the American oil cards, will begin to ask why are they exporting oil to DC and New York for little return, and begin to work out bilateral trade agreements with those states and countries with agricultural products to sell.
Interesting speculation as to what events may unfold.
I realised that if I had read your comment outside of the context of reading this article beforehand, my first instinct might have been "Man, this is 9 out of 10 on the "weird shit-o-meter".
But when I think about it in the context of the persuasive argument put forward by the author of the substack post, I think "Gee, this is really quite plausible if things rapidly unfold".
My hypothesis is that whatever is going to unfold, the likelihood of it unfolding is increasing exponentially with every passing day. This article reinforces rhat hypothesis.
Kinda makes me want to put more effort into my "survivalist" instincts (becoming debt free, expanding my own back yard vegie patch) rather than political activism of any sort! Anyway that is just how it makes me feel and think at this point in time . . .
"Sooner or later though, the oil shock will hit, and the music will stop playing. Everybody will be desperately looking for a seat (except for Europe bleeding out on the floor already). As the first wave of panic is over, however, people all around the world will start to adapt to this new reality, but currently there are no models to predict how exactly this will play out. We will be in completely uncharted territory."
A similar narrative w/ helpful strategies and lists of supplies necessary to surviveworldcollapse.com
Thanks B. You have written an article that I write a couple of times per year, so I'll use yours this time.
I learned about The Limits To Growth almost/maybe precisely 10 years ago in 10th grade in Yokohama. The oil-embargo was happening. It all made perfect sense.
If I may point out the x-axis on that World-3 BAU model. Peak industrial output is in the rearview-mirror, end of 2018...
Your predictions are all underway. Post-peak industrial output looked like COVID lockdowns and "going direct" to TBTF global banks and casinos.
"Killing some folks" is the strategy to prevent resource shortages, also well underway.
We can no more stop our voracious consumption of the world than a cancer cell can stop dividing. The only truly effective cure for cancer is the death of the host. We are well on our way to destroying the ecosphere.
That being said, we are marvelously designed to wiggle out of suffering and death, so all projection models and scenarios have a wild card in them. But the "too smart/too late" event horizon is rapidly approaching. We shall see.
I highly recommend this Channel 4 documentary from 2007 for a more nuanced take on the climate narrative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY-gRFSaP7o
Climate Change is bullshit... man has minimal impact on the climate...
In any even why worry about it - even if it was true there is nothing to be done ... and soon we'll have clear blue skies... cuz that is what collapse will bring.
Find something more useful to spend your time on
Yeah. Did you even watch the video? It's called 'The great global warming swindle'. The rants are funny but becoming increasingly unhinged.
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Thank you B🙏
Great summary of our probable future. Thank you for writing it all out for reading and contemplation.
I speculate that Texas and Louisiana holding the last of the American oil cards, will begin to ask why are they exporting oil to DC and New York for little return, and begin to work out bilateral trade agreements with those states and countries with agricultural products to sell.
There is rumored to be a LOT of oil in Alaska, discovered and capped-off under Carter.
It's Top-Secret.
Interesting speculation as to what events may unfold.
I realised that if I had read your comment outside of the context of reading this article beforehand, my first instinct might have been "Man, this is 9 out of 10 on the "weird shit-o-meter".
But when I think about it in the context of the persuasive argument put forward by the author of the substack post, I think "Gee, this is really quite plausible if things rapidly unfold".
My hypothesis is that whatever is going to unfold, the likelihood of it unfolding is increasing exponentially with every passing day. This article reinforces rhat hypothesis.
Kinda makes me want to put more effort into my "survivalist" instincts (becoming debt free, expanding my own back yard vegie patch) rather than political activism of any sort! Anyway that is just how it makes me feel and think at this point in time . . .
Hey man thanks! I was thinking of something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
An excellent and well reasoned article B. I hope that it can reach a very large audience
V Many thanks.
It would make sense to exterminate everyone ... before we reach the tipping point and BAU collapses ... resulting in the Gates of Hell opening.
Oh right... they are exterminating everyone
"Sooner or later though, the oil shock will hit, and the music will stop playing. Everybody will be desperately looking for a seat (except for Europe bleeding out on the floor already). As the first wave of panic is over, however, people all around the world will start to adapt to this new reality, but currently there are no models to predict how exactly this will play out. We will be in completely uncharted territory."
A similar narrative w/ helpful strategies and lists of supplies necessary to surviveworldcollapse.com
I am on your team. I have been on this team for 50 years.
for your readers what happens in the next 80 years:
Civilization's: "Running out of gas" story. 9 minute animation
youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0
Summary of my work https://www.evernote.com/l/AAmZY0Hicy9KbLmuRpZRVAjtdR3UQC_bhEE
full content www.skil.org
Please contact me directly
Jack Alpert PhD Director:
Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory http://www.skil.org
(C) 913 708 2554 jackalpert4@gmail.com
We've been on that same-team for 50 years, Jack. I wasn't sure I'd live to be old.
Here I am. https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/
Thanks B. You have written an article that I write a couple of times per year, so I'll use yours this time.
I learned about The Limits To Growth almost/maybe precisely 10 years ago in 10th grade in Yokohama. The oil-embargo was happening. It all made perfect sense.
If I may point out the x-axis on that World-3 BAU model. Peak industrial output is in the rearview-mirror, end of 2018...
Your predictions are all underway. Post-peak industrial output looked like COVID lockdowns and "going direct" to TBTF global banks and casinos.
"Killing some folks" is the strategy to prevent resource shortages, also well underway.
We can no more stop our voracious consumption of the world than a cancer cell can stop dividing. The only truly effective cure for cancer is the death of the host. We are well on our way to destroying the ecosphere.
That being said, we are marvelously designed to wiggle out of suffering and death, so all projection models and scenarios have a wild card in them. But the "too smart/too late" event horizon is rapidly approaching. We shall see.
This was excellent, I'll recommend to others.