I believe you misunderstand the percentages of crude oil going into various factions. You only lightly touch on cracking, yet this is FAR more important in your analysis than you give it credit for.
Consider that tar sands oil (bitumen) natively yields 5% gasoline weight hydrocarbons and 15% diesel. Yet after cracking it yields 30% gasoline and 30% diesel. If the cracking process is optimized for diesel, it can produce 65% diesel.
Where light (sweet) crude natively produces 30% gasoline and 25% diesel. After cracking it produces 45% gasoline, and 25% diesel (conventional cracking to optimize both gasoline and diesel). But if cracking is optimized for diesel, it can produce 50% diesel.
The examples you gave are based on existing DEMAND, and not capability. There is much higher demand for gasoline weight distillates and much lower demand for diesel, so that is exactly what they produce. Yes, there are sporadic shortages, but that’s based on the refinery design.
If much more diesel is needed, it will be produced from all crude, and especially heavy crude. There’s MUCH more heavy crude in the world than light crude.
Realistically, if there’s oil, there’s no shortage of diesel.
Of course, and cracking heavy oil and bitumen requires even more energy. It’s basic chemistry, it takes energy to break the carbon bonds. Doing conversions using average values, the amount of energy to crack a long chain hydrocarbon using heat and a catalyst, with heat recovery is about 1 kWh per gallon.
A gallon of diesel fuel contains about 40 kWh of heat energy. So a bit over a gallon of diesel to crack a barrel of heavy oil. This is a crude approximation, some fractions are removed before cracking heavy oils, etc, but it puts you in the ballpark. So about 2% to 3% of the energy in a barrel of oil is used for cracking heavy fractions. Less than you might expect.
I’m only focusing on the one point, and I agree with B for most of what is written.
Thank you for this data filled analysis. One of the Laws of Thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor lost, only changed in form. Our current fossil fuel dependent 8B+ human population has multiplied 3,000 times from our ecologically balanced and selfsustaining ancestral Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands, fueled by the fossil fuels we burn. Unfortunately, for our offspring, that fossil fuel burning is generating, along with the trapped solar radiation due to CO2/GHGs, the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. Little wonder that we are setting global temp increase records year after year and our ecosystem is collapsing. In the Wayne National Forest near my home, there are 6,000 abandoned oil/gas wells.
We will be/are our own undoing, but we never think of the world we are leaving for the next generation. C3S (EU) predicts that, at the current rate of global heating, we may see 1 degC global temp increases EVERY FIVE YEARS, so that any child born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD in a world 6 degC hotter than today, an unlivable world for all but the uber riche few remnants of our species. Finis.
Why don't you start eating only bread and vegetables in order to "save the planet"? Also no trips for you. STOP using the internet as well. No electricity or heat in winter. Common. Give us an example.
Even a loaf of bread is energy negative when accounting for seed to table energy inputs. Back of the envelope calculations puts it about 1.3 fossil energy units in for 1 unit of edible energy out (country dependent as grain yield matters). Overall current US food system has an "EROI" of 0.1 - actually it is worse because of the energy cost of energy going up - it's now more like 14 or 15 units of fossil energy going in for every edible food energy unit in your pantry....
I've recently discovered this substack and really love it. I've read the past dozen or so posts. There is much talk of peak oil and rightly so, but has anyone come across a good prediction / model for peak coal? I feel like we should watch out for both.
You might try following Art Berman on "X" or his excellent blog which can be found on his website: artberman.com on the topic of oil, gas and all fossil fuels.
The way they spin this is ... they blame it on a ban of new exploration for oil and gas... only because they cannot tell the barnyard animals the truth - which is ... if there is oil and gas out there... it's too expensive to extract....
They tell the barnyard animals that solar will save the day.... everyone feels better... my advice is that anyone who can leave that country should sell everything ... and exit... NZers can move to Australia without a visa... do it.
Fears mill closures could create ‘ghost towns’ in New Zealand
Amid the cheerful chatter of children playing at Raetihi’s community-based Nancy Winter Early Childhood Centre, there is a palpable tension in the air, with worry etched on the faces of the parents and carers.
Manager Brenda Burnard said the tight-knit community was reeling from the shock of losing its largest employer.
“It really does feel like a car crash happening in slow motion,” she said.
I believe you misunderstand the percentages of crude oil going into various factions. You only lightly touch on cracking, yet this is FAR more important in your analysis than you give it credit for.
Consider that tar sands oil (bitumen) natively yields 5% gasoline weight hydrocarbons and 15% diesel. Yet after cracking it yields 30% gasoline and 30% diesel. If the cracking process is optimized for diesel, it can produce 65% diesel.
Where light (sweet) crude natively produces 30% gasoline and 25% diesel. After cracking it produces 45% gasoline, and 25% diesel (conventional cracking to optimize both gasoline and diesel). But if cracking is optimized for diesel, it can produce 50% diesel.
The examples you gave are based on existing DEMAND, and not capability. There is much higher demand for gasoline weight distillates and much lower demand for diesel, so that is exactly what they produce. Yes, there are sporadic shortages, but that’s based on the refinery design.
If much more diesel is needed, it will be produced from all crude, and especially heavy crude. There’s MUCH more heavy crude in the world than light crude.
Realistically, if there’s oil, there’s no shortage of diesel.
Interesting info. Thanks.
The point being that the cracking process requires energy and materials (equipment) inputs. EROI is important.
Of course, and cracking heavy oil and bitumen requires even more energy. It’s basic chemistry, it takes energy to break the carbon bonds. Doing conversions using average values, the amount of energy to crack a long chain hydrocarbon using heat and a catalyst, with heat recovery is about 1 kWh per gallon.
A gallon of diesel fuel contains about 40 kWh of heat energy. So a bit over a gallon of diesel to crack a barrel of heavy oil. This is a crude approximation, some fractions are removed before cracking heavy oils, etc, but it puts you in the ballpark. So about 2% to 3% of the energy in a barrel of oil is used for cracking heavy fractions. Less than you might expect.
I’m only focusing on the one point, and I agree with B for most of what is written.
Thank you for this data filled analysis. One of the Laws of Thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor lost, only changed in form. Our current fossil fuel dependent 8B+ human population has multiplied 3,000 times from our ecologically balanced and selfsustaining ancestral Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands, fueled by the fossil fuels we burn. Unfortunately, for our offspring, that fossil fuel burning is generating, along with the trapped solar radiation due to CO2/GHGs, the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. Little wonder that we are setting global temp increase records year after year and our ecosystem is collapsing. In the Wayne National Forest near my home, there are 6,000 abandoned oil/gas wells.
We will be/are our own undoing, but we never think of the world we are leaving for the next generation. C3S (EU) predicts that, at the current rate of global heating, we may see 1 degC global temp increases EVERY FIVE YEARS, so that any child born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD in a world 6 degC hotter than today, an unlivable world for all but the uber riche few remnants of our species. Finis.
Why don't you start eating only bread and vegetables in order to "save the planet"? Also no trips for you. STOP using the internet as well. No electricity or heat in winter. Common. Give us an example.
Even a loaf of bread is energy negative when accounting for seed to table energy inputs. Back of the envelope calculations puts it about 1.3 fossil energy units in for 1 unit of edible energy out (country dependent as grain yield matters). Overall current US food system has an "EROI" of 0.1 - actually it is worse because of the energy cost of energy going up - it's now more like 14 or 15 units of fossil energy going in for every edible food energy unit in your pantry....
Indeed.... if HS is aware of this situation ... the Men Who Run the World are definitely aware https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/who-runs-the-world
Would it be responsible to allow the collapse to happen .. and do nothing to lessen the suffering?
When the power goes out 8B will be on the dark cold streets ... starving.... https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-happens-when-the-power-goes
Will they join hands and sign KOOMbaya ... or will they tear each other to shreds.... and eat the bodies?
Fortunately our masters are doing something to ensure extinction is an orderly event https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-extinction-plan-uep
Nobody survives https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
A very interesting post that deserves much attention. You have sent me off on several paths to find out and understand more. Thank you.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Nice work B.
It's best when HS doesn't include a final paragraph of hopium to keep the barnyard animals happy... f789 them if they cannot handle The Truth
I've recently discovered this substack and really love it. I've read the past dozen or so posts. There is much talk of peak oil and rightly so, but has anyone come across a good prediction / model for peak coal? I feel like we should watch out for both.
Alice Friedemann is an excellent source for all things energy and peaky. https://energyskeptic.com/category/fastcrash/peakeverything/peak-coal/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/02/22/have-we-already-passed-world-peak-oil-and-world-peak-coal/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/
You might try following Art Berman on "X" or his excellent blog which can be found on his website: artberman.com on the topic of oil, gas and all fossil fuels.
New Zealand is a real life example of this playing out... they are starting to de-industrialize because they are running out of affordable energy.... https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/nz-is-running-out-of-gas-literally
The way they spin this is ... they blame it on a ban of new exploration for oil and gas... only because they cannot tell the barnyard animals the truth - which is ... if there is oil and gas out there... it's too expensive to extract....
They tell the barnyard animals that solar will save the day.... everyone feels better... my advice is that anyone who can leave that country should sell everything ... and exit... NZers can move to Australia without a visa... do it.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/new-zealand-panics Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashes interest rates again, by 50 basis points to 4.75 per cent
Fears mill closures could create ‘ghost towns’ in New Zealand
Amid the cheerful chatter of children playing at Raetihi’s community-based Nancy Winter Early Childhood Centre, there is a palpable tension in the air, with worry etched on the faces of the parents and carers.
Manager Brenda Burnard said the tight-knit community was reeling from the shock of losing its largest employer.
“It really does feel like a car crash happening in slow motion,” she said.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/this-is-what-peak-cheap-energy-looks
I suspect NZ will eventually receive an IMF bailout ... to prevent it from becoming a failed state.
The rest of the world is not far behind
Very good work, B, a fine presentation, which should be clear in any mind which is willing to accept reality.