I believe you misunderstand the percentages of crude oil going into various factions. You only lightly touch on cracking, yet this is FAR more important in your analysis than you give it credit for.
Consider that tar sands oil (bitumen) natively yields 5% gasoline weight hydrocarbons and 15% diesel. Yet after cracking it yields 30% gasoline and 30% diesel. If the cracking process is optimized for diesel, it can produce 65% diesel.
Where light (sweet) crude natively produces 30% gasoline and 25% diesel. After cracking it produces 45% gasoline, and 25% diesel (conventional cracking to optimize both gasoline and diesel). But if cracking is optimized for diesel, it can produce 50% diesel.
The examples you gave are based on existing DEMAND, and not capability. There is much higher demand for gasoline weight distillates and much lower demand for diesel, so that is exactly what they produce. Yes, there are sporadic shortages, but that’s based on the refinery design.
If much more diesel is needed, it will be produced from all crude, and especially heavy crude. There’s MUCH more heavy crude in the world than light crude.
Realistically, if there’s oil, there’s no shortage of diesel.
Of course, and cracking heavy oil and bitumen requires even more energy. It’s basic chemistry, it takes energy to break the carbon bonds. Doing conversions using average values, the amount of energy to crack a long chain hydrocarbon using heat and a catalyst, with heat recovery is about 1 kWh per gallon.
A gallon of diesel fuel contains about 40 kWh of heat energy. So a bit over a gallon of diesel to crack a barrel of heavy oil. This is a crude approximation, some fractions are removed before cracking heavy oils, etc, but it puts you in the ballpark. So about 2% to 3% of the energy in a barrel of oil is used for cracking heavy fractions. Less than you might expect.
I’m only focusing on the one point, and I agree with B for most of what is written.
Okay, so if we take your point into account, the difference between the author's model and your's would simply be some extra number of years before we reach the still-inevitable crunch point.
I think the author's most crucial point is that even our feeble attempts at "energy transition" are not replacing fossil fuel energy sources, but simply being added to the heap, as they are entering into a system designed to generate exponential growth.
Our problem here is not really technological, it is cultural. Let's imagine we had begun an energy transition in the 70's (when we were quite aware of the problem, and still had plenty of time and cheap energy ahead of us to make significant changes before they were needed). It would be to no avail, the oligarchs would simply have usurped the new power sources in order to concentrate even more power to themselves.
What it would take to work is a human culture that was willing to invest a substantial chunk of their cheap energy in as yet unborn generations. It would take a culture that fully intended to plateau its overall production.
Instead, we live in a world dominated by greedy, violent, competitive psychopaths, who are not really in control at all - they grow exponentially like a cancer, with no thought for the long term survival of the host. Instead of putting aside some portion of our production as an inheritance for our descendants, by allowing the unbridled expansion of interest bearing debt, we are robbing from our children instead.
I agree. I have been following both the science and these debates since the 1970's and I have also watched the growth in population, with the massive growth in the energy usage of each of those people, has always been an exponential path to a crisis. The only difference is that now we can clearly see the detail of each brick in that wall right in front of us!
But whilst we can do little about the climate crisis short of moving somewhere safer, we can at least make personal decisions to reduce our exposure to the energy crisis, at least for a while. An investment in a solar roof and battery pack, plugged in to an electric vehicle, for example, may give 20 years of independence from the monopolies of distributed and centralised Grid power, and the ability to drive past those angry queues at the petrol stations when each fuel supply crisis cause disruption. Not to mention that you can keep the lights on and keep cooking your food!
I dunno. Before we get to the full blown consequences of climate change, we'll be dealing with the reducing energy/food supply. But even before we get to that, we'll be facing the collapse of the global economy. It's been pretty shaky for a couple decades now, we keep kicking the can down the road by writing up ever larger mountains of debt. Sooner or later, though, the system will have to admit that we're borrowing from a future that will not be able to pay (I imagine the insurance companies will be the first to give way). After that, all bets will be off (literally as well as figuratively).
I mean, we've put solar cells on our roof, yeah, but it's just a stopgap - no amount of stuff will be as important as forming a reliable community. And in that sense, being the only house on your street with the lights on ain't gonna go down so well. Can PV cells shield you from empty supermarket shelves, food rations, hungry mobs? Defend you from local gangsters who'll just take whatever stuff you have, including the cells? Stop soldiers from herding you into a labour camp? I could go on, but you get the idea.
You'll need to pool stuff and skills with a group of people you've learned to trust for mutual benefit and defence. Westerners are out of practice at this, to say the least.
As you say, community is the hard thing, and I would guess particularly difficult in an America with many men determined to be individuals and tough and unemotional - a strong male identity that might get in the way of caring about other people's wellbeing. It certainly seems to be difficult for many of them to accept all kinds of other people for who they are, and without judgement or criticism.
And, of course, all those guns, and the gun culture that goes with it. Scary!
The “lone wolves” won’t last long. I have seen this firsthand in Liberia (west Africa). I was there over a decade and a half ago, just a few years after their 16 year civil war. There was zero infrastructure left in the country, no outside goods, (6 years after the war, there were still only 2 gas stations in the country). See my post above.
Liberia is the size of Florida without the panhandle. During the war it had a population of about 2 or so million, with up to a quarter million killed. In comparison, Florida has 21 million people. Individuals couldn’t sustain themselves, and if they tried, they were killed.
The lone wolf is a romantic ideal, and they will survive, for a couple years. And a few could survive longer, providing they are so remote they can’t be found. Do you think it’s sustainable?
No, I agree with you, although as I said it is a strong part of American culture, and perhaps encouraged by successive American governments that don't want to pay for social projects. Like unemployment support and healthcare!
I have said elsewhere that in times of collapse, in whatever form, that Westerner's complex systems and detached social and family structures will collapse more quickly and more deeply than simpler, more sociable countries. Perhaps even to the point where as populations crash, the humans and gene pools most likely to survive will be the peoples living in ways barely affected by the crash in systems, like daily access to fossil fuels, electricity, banking, and internet. In short, the future human race may well revert to being black and African, as we all started out from!
You make several interesting points, here and in the your reply to me above, but I'll just pick up on your experiences in Liberia, and go with that. I think Westerners can learn a lot from the "Third World" - they've already endured centuries of hardship and danger. I live in one of the poorer areas our city, economically speaking, so living around us are many migrant families from all the Empire's warzones, including Liberia. In general, they really make a go of things and have improved the culture of our local area greatly over the last few decades.
Although, of course, they enjoy not being shot at or starved and appreciate the opportunity to finally build lives after years in limbo, I can see that they're also dismayed and confused by the lack of community here. They put a lot of effort into their expat community organisations, especially in regards to getting newcomers on their feet.
They give me hope for the possibility of survival in this location. I reckon when it comes to the crunch, these will be the people who'll understand the importance of cooperation, while the people born and raised here will, for the most part I expect, be squabbling amid empty supermarket shelves and looking for some strongman to lead them back to the good old days.
Thanks for that site - it's encouraging when you come across a bunch of people who have been thinking along the same lines as you, makes you feel less alone. I especially like the focus on localism.
In our family we call it "falling through the gaps" - letting go of the current insane culture early while we still have resources available to begin a new one.
Thanks! Yes - I like that phrase. Indeed- it's a mad, mad, world. We can't change the past, obviously - and we can't be certain about the future. But we are here, now, in the present, and we can still do what we can, while we can. That's the effort for a 'just' collapse. :)
You are aware those “greedy, violent, competitive psychopaths” include you and I….
Every single thing you own, use, buy, maintain, touch, and eat is essentially energy. And even today, 83% of all energy used on earth comes from fossil fuels. Electricity is only 20% of worldwide energy usage, and 60% of electricity is generated by fossil fuels.
It’s not cultural, it’s because there is no substitute for fossil fuels. Every alternative energy source is many times as expensive if used as a replacement for fossil fuels. Currently, alternatives are an intermittent supplement only.
The alternative energy being built every year doesn’t even keep up with annual increases in energy consumption. Remember the alternatives is only the 12% electricity which is fossil fuel powered. And that increased consumption of energy is actually the embedded energy in all goods, services, transportation and food, not just electricity.
So, to “transition” away from fossil fuels, you can start by not buying a single thing. Because everything you buy is almost entirely composed of fossil fuel energy. This includes stopping eating, because all food is entirely dependent on fossil fuels.
There is no energy transition, because there can’t be one. There is no substitute for fossil fuels. And every alternative is MANY, MANY times more expensive as a REPLACEMENT for fossil fuels. Are you willing pay many times more for absolutely everything? Including food and taxes? Because that’s what an “energy transition” would involve, and that’s why it’s not happening and never will happen, until we run out of fossil fuels.
I am aware. Tell me, what part of my words implied that I believe there will be an energy transition? Forgive me for my miscommunication.
We do find ourselves in a sociopathic state, but I don't think most humans are sociopathic in the fringe manner of the oligarchs. The guilt most of us bear is that, over many generations, we've allowed our social fabric to unravel. We've allowed ourselves to become caught up in vast hierarchies, a Machine beyond human scale, beyond our capacity to affect with our sociable instincts. We have built a runaway train without brakes that is charging full steam ahead toward a cliff. There is no one in charge. There is no stopping this disaster. That is why I said our problem is cultural. Our alienation is what prevented us from acting in our own interests sooner, even though we knew what was needed in every fibre of our being.
The choice left to us is not whether the Machine will collapse or not. We will be forced out of our current habits by plain old thermodynamics, into lives of ever increasing hardship, witnessing the starvation of billions. The living will envy the dead.
The choice we have is whether to cower in fear and despair or to find the courage to struggle, to rebuild communities that will make our suffering a little less than if we face our fate alone, and give breath to the hope that we will not become completely extinct. In this way we can resume the legacy of all life on Earth and rejoin the biosphere.
Each night, in my dreams, I see our future and it fills me with sadness, because I can also see that other Earth. The one in which we made different use of the one-time energy windfall we were gifted, the bequest of our distant ancestors, since we did not allow our pursuit of knowledge to lead us to forget the wisdom ingrained in us by our Mother.
But here we are in the world where we found Her underground stores and foolishly set off an explosion. Oh well. Since we've become so good at digging, let us bury ourselves in Her crust and in Her sheltering embrace perhaps we might find the strength we need.
Agree entirely with your points. I wasn’t implying you believed in an energy transition or not.
Much of the fossil fuels used to date have been squandered and the remaining will certainly be mindlessly squandered.
Only then will the masses wonder “what happened?”. Of course they will blame everyone else for running out. This is inevitable. The only outcome.
Individuals can be smart and do the right thing for themselves. Society is stupid and will never think of the future, only of themselves, for today.
I am not one to cower. Instead, I will see how I can take advantage of the opportunity. Not so much for myself, but for my family and descendants. Such as establishing a sustainable base of land on a large body of fresh water. Away from large population centres. I’m currently on the Great Lakes, this is a region which will naturally be moderated from the most extreme warming.
Sorry to say, but the most important thing is to establish generational wealth, and a means of sustaining income/revenue well into the future. This will determine who survives and who doesn’t.
There will be a gradual descent into the lack of energy, then at some point, it will happen very quickly. The vast majority won’t be prepared, and only substantial amounts of wealth will get some people out of that trap. It can’t be “financial” wealth, with the massive debt every level of government and corporations are carrying, the “system” will likely collapse. It will need to be physical wealth, and as mentioned, a means of continuing to generate income/revenue.
The worst off will be people who are employed by a government or company. They are totally reliant on others.
I have personally seen what it’s like to have no source of energy (no goods or services of any kind). I was working in Liberia a few years after the end of their 16 year civil war. There was still absolutely nothing in the country. No outside goods, no manufacturing, no energy of any kind, not even food. There was no animal in the country larger than a large rodent. Everything else had been eaten. The people who were doing the best had businesses. Something to consider.
Thank you for this data filled analysis. One of the Laws of Thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor lost, only changed in form. Our current fossil fuel dependent 8B+ human population has multiplied 3,000 times from our ecologically balanced and selfsustaining ancestral Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands, fueled by the fossil fuels we burn. Unfortunately, for our offspring, that fossil fuel burning is generating, along with the trapped solar radiation due to CO2/GHGs, the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. Little wonder that we are setting global temp increase records year after year and our ecosystem is collapsing. In the Wayne National Forest near my home, there are 6,000 abandoned oil/gas wells.
We will be/are our own undoing, but we never think of the world we are leaving for the next generation. C3S (EU) predicts that, at the current rate of global heating, we may see 1 degC global temp increases EVERY FIVE YEARS, so that any child born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD in a world 6 degC hotter than today, an unlivable world for all but the uber riche few remnants of our species. Finis.
Why don't you start eating only bread and vegetables in order to "save the planet"? Also no trips for you. STOP using the internet as well. No electricity or heat in winter. Common. Give us an example.
Even a loaf of bread is energy negative when accounting for seed to table energy inputs. Back of the envelope calculations puts it about 1.3 fossil energy units in for 1 unit of edible energy out (country dependent as grain yield matters). Overall current US food system has an "EROI" of 0.1 - actually it is worse because of the energy cost of energy going up - it's now more like 14 or 15 units of fossil energy going in for every edible food energy unit in your pantry....
Dude. Stop and think for a minute. If I'm eating a chicken sandwich, the wheat comes from Canada, the chickens from Holland, and the chicken feed from Ukraine, the butter from Brazil, and the whole creation process relies upon thousands of miles of diesel-fueled transport, then that is Craig's point above.
It may be slightly cheaper, due to multinational playing with various tax regimes, but in terms of ENERGY, it is catastrophic.
A locally produced loaf, with local chickens, will not have the same energy cost.
As the oil flow slows, and becomes more expensive, we will have to eat more local, and those communities that are more autarkic will be better placed not to starve.
As I said. Start by starving for a couple of days in search for fully locally produced bread. Or give up on your high paid useless job, sell your assets and buy some land and start growing it yourself. Be part of the solution. Reduce your own footprint and only then lecture anyone about the extra high energy they consume per person. This is what all clubs of rome members and fans should do. Otherwise feck off.
The POINT is that once the cheap energy starts to run out and becomes expensive, we are all going to have to do that.
Ironically, if we started now, the oil would last considerably longer. and there would be more local employment, which means more local taxes paid, which means more local services.
I already buy local as much as I can, and avoid the large chains except for a few luxuries. Yes, it is more expensive, but if/when we get a sudden crash - fx, if the US/Israel blows up the Iranian refineries, or when the $ crashes again (Which will happen very very soon) - then there ARE local production which have been supported to survive.
I've moved to a semi-rural area, and there are farms around within decent cycling distance, small family farms not reliant on the global infrastructure to survive.
I know many people who have gone full autarky, and they are very, very happy.
Better to get your own hands dirty than to be working a Bullshit Job (Graeber).
What made you think you were being lectured to Joe? I was just pointing out that we happen to have an energy negative food system for the majority of people. Good on you for being (presumably) self-sufficient (based on your comments so far). Pat yourself on the back but don't make assumptions about the other people commenting here i.e. be constructive rather than combative (yes now I am lecturing).
Can I have yours? Or can I buy it off you? Will you fight me for it? What about me and all my peeps? No - individualist prepping is a good way to get yourself killed. Solidaristic community planning on the other hand provides genuine resilience in face of decline.
Thanks, Eddy, but I'm leavin the future up to the Higher Power that gave us this Garden of Eden, which we have so destroyed and debased for anyone left in the collapsing climate/ecosystem. He/She is far more capable and well informed than I, so I'll just let it play out. Just got off the phone with my only living cousin and we are best friends through thick and thin, so, along with the wonderful folks likes yourself I've had the great pleasure of meeting on the net, and my near daily walks down to the banks of the Muskingum River here in Marietta, what else could I ask for? Have a blessed evening and sleep tight, don't let the bed bugs bight! ( :)) Gregg
I think if we do find ourselves facing extinction, we, the ones left for dead, should make it our solemn duty to dig those oligarch motherfuckers out of their fancy bunkers to join the misery party.
Having said that, if the human species does survive the next couple centuries, it'll probably be Derin Kuyu style.
I've recently discovered this substack and really love it. I've read the past dozen or so posts. There is much talk of peak oil and rightly so, but has anyone come across a good prediction / model for peak coal? I feel like we should watch out for both.
You might try following Art Berman on "X" or his excellent blog which can be found on his website: artberman.com on the topic of oil, gas and all fossil fuels.
The way they spin this is ... they blame it on a ban of new exploration for oil and gas... only because they cannot tell the barnyard animals the truth - which is ... if there is oil and gas out there... it's too expensive to extract....
They tell the barnyard animals that solar will save the day.... everyone feels better... my advice is that anyone who can leave that country should sell everything ... and exit... NZers can move to Australia without a visa... do it.
Fears mill closures could create ‘ghost towns’ in New Zealand
Amid the cheerful chatter of children playing at Raetihi’s community-based Nancy Winter Early Childhood Centre, there is a palpable tension in the air, with worry etched on the faces of the parents and carers.
Manager Brenda Burnard said the tight-knit community was reeling from the shock of losing its largest employer.
“It really does feel like a car crash happening in slow motion,” she said.
Would we as a civilization be better off not producing solar panels and wind turbines? If we have to use so much precious diesel fuel just to mine the ores and produce and transport them into the field would it not make sense to cease their production to conserve the fossil fuels?
We might be better off designing solar panels, wind turbines, etc, for longevity instead of efficiency. Make them smaller and easier to repair, using common materials whenever possible.
Peak oil and the EROI scam is basically just that a theory unsupported by Empirical evidence, Lifting costs are decreasing and production increasing . The Narratives are fabricated to support the Price floor scheme that has been in place since the 1930's
Tim Morgans Seeds Falsified? Peak Oil Falsified.
The Peak Oil theory refuses to die, it is contradicted by the evidence.
I believe you misunderstand the percentages of crude oil going into various factions. You only lightly touch on cracking, yet this is FAR more important in your analysis than you give it credit for.
Consider that tar sands oil (bitumen) natively yields 5% gasoline weight hydrocarbons and 15% diesel. Yet after cracking it yields 30% gasoline and 30% diesel. If the cracking process is optimized for diesel, it can produce 65% diesel.
Where light (sweet) crude natively produces 30% gasoline and 25% diesel. After cracking it produces 45% gasoline, and 25% diesel (conventional cracking to optimize both gasoline and diesel). But if cracking is optimized for diesel, it can produce 50% diesel.
The examples you gave are based on existing DEMAND, and not capability. There is much higher demand for gasoline weight distillates and much lower demand for diesel, so that is exactly what they produce. Yes, there are sporadic shortages, but that’s based on the refinery design.
If much more diesel is needed, it will be produced from all crude, and especially heavy crude. There’s MUCH more heavy crude in the world than light crude.
Realistically, if there’s oil, there’s no shortage of diesel.
Interesting info. Thanks.
The point being that the cracking process requires energy and materials (equipment) inputs. EROI is important.
Of course, and cracking heavy oil and bitumen requires even more energy. It’s basic chemistry, it takes energy to break the carbon bonds. Doing conversions using average values, the amount of energy to crack a long chain hydrocarbon using heat and a catalyst, with heat recovery is about 1 kWh per gallon.
A gallon of diesel fuel contains about 40 kWh of heat energy. So a bit over a gallon of diesel to crack a barrel of heavy oil. This is a crude approximation, some fractions are removed before cracking heavy oils, etc, but it puts you in the ballpark. So about 2% to 3% of the energy in a barrel of oil is used for cracking heavy fractions. Less than you might expect.
I’m only focusing on the one point, and I agree with B for most of what is written.
Okay, so if we take your point into account, the difference between the author's model and your's would simply be some extra number of years before we reach the still-inevitable crunch point.
I think the author's most crucial point is that even our feeble attempts at "energy transition" are not replacing fossil fuel energy sources, but simply being added to the heap, as they are entering into a system designed to generate exponential growth.
Our problem here is not really technological, it is cultural. Let's imagine we had begun an energy transition in the 70's (when we were quite aware of the problem, and still had plenty of time and cheap energy ahead of us to make significant changes before they were needed). It would be to no avail, the oligarchs would simply have usurped the new power sources in order to concentrate even more power to themselves.
What it would take to work is a human culture that was willing to invest a substantial chunk of their cheap energy in as yet unborn generations. It would take a culture that fully intended to plateau its overall production.
Instead, we live in a world dominated by greedy, violent, competitive psychopaths, who are not really in control at all - they grow exponentially like a cancer, with no thought for the long term survival of the host. Instead of putting aside some portion of our production as an inheritance for our descendants, by allowing the unbridled expansion of interest bearing debt, we are robbing from our children instead.
I agree. I have been following both the science and these debates since the 1970's and I have also watched the growth in population, with the massive growth in the energy usage of each of those people, has always been an exponential path to a crisis. The only difference is that now we can clearly see the detail of each brick in that wall right in front of us!
But whilst we can do little about the climate crisis short of moving somewhere safer, we can at least make personal decisions to reduce our exposure to the energy crisis, at least for a while. An investment in a solar roof and battery pack, plugged in to an electric vehicle, for example, may give 20 years of independence from the monopolies of distributed and centralised Grid power, and the ability to drive past those angry queues at the petrol stations when each fuel supply crisis cause disruption. Not to mention that you can keep the lights on and keep cooking your food!
Some small comfort as the world goes to hell!
I dunno. Before we get to the full blown consequences of climate change, we'll be dealing with the reducing energy/food supply. But even before we get to that, we'll be facing the collapse of the global economy. It's been pretty shaky for a couple decades now, we keep kicking the can down the road by writing up ever larger mountains of debt. Sooner or later, though, the system will have to admit that we're borrowing from a future that will not be able to pay (I imagine the insurance companies will be the first to give way). After that, all bets will be off (literally as well as figuratively).
I mean, we've put solar cells on our roof, yeah, but it's just a stopgap - no amount of stuff will be as important as forming a reliable community. And in that sense, being the only house on your street with the lights on ain't gonna go down so well. Can PV cells shield you from empty supermarket shelves, food rations, hungry mobs? Defend you from local gangsters who'll just take whatever stuff you have, including the cells? Stop soldiers from herding you into a labour camp? I could go on, but you get the idea.
You'll need to pool stuff and skills with a group of people you've learned to trust for mutual benefit and defence. Westerners are out of practice at this, to say the least.
As you say, community is the hard thing, and I would guess particularly difficult in an America with many men determined to be individuals and tough and unemotional - a strong male identity that might get in the way of caring about other people's wellbeing. It certainly seems to be difficult for many of them to accept all kinds of other people for who they are, and without judgement or criticism.
And, of course, all those guns, and the gun culture that goes with it. Scary!
The “lone wolves” won’t last long. I have seen this firsthand in Liberia (west Africa). I was there over a decade and a half ago, just a few years after their 16 year civil war. There was zero infrastructure left in the country, no outside goods, (6 years after the war, there were still only 2 gas stations in the country). See my post above.
Liberia is the size of Florida without the panhandle. During the war it had a population of about 2 or so million, with up to a quarter million killed. In comparison, Florida has 21 million people. Individuals couldn’t sustain themselves, and if they tried, they were killed.
The lone wolf is a romantic ideal, and they will survive, for a couple years. And a few could survive longer, providing they are so remote they can’t be found. Do you think it’s sustainable?
No, I agree with you, although as I said it is a strong part of American culture, and perhaps encouraged by successive American governments that don't want to pay for social projects. Like unemployment support and healthcare!
I have said elsewhere that in times of collapse, in whatever form, that Westerner's complex systems and detached social and family structures will collapse more quickly and more deeply than simpler, more sociable countries. Perhaps even to the point where as populations crash, the humans and gene pools most likely to survive will be the peoples living in ways barely affected by the crash in systems, like daily access to fossil fuels, electricity, banking, and internet. In short, the future human race may well revert to being black and African, as we all started out from!
That idea will piss off the racists! 🙂
You make several interesting points, here and in the your reply to me above, but I'll just pick up on your experiences in Liberia, and go with that. I think Westerners can learn a lot from the "Third World" - they've already endured centuries of hardship and danger. I live in one of the poorer areas our city, economically speaking, so living around us are many migrant families from all the Empire's warzones, including Liberia. In general, they really make a go of things and have improved the culture of our local area greatly over the last few decades.
Although, of course, they enjoy not being shot at or starved and appreciate the opportunity to finally build lives after years in limbo, I can see that they're also dismayed and confused by the lack of community here. They put a lot of effort into their expat community organisations, especially in regards to getting newcomers on their feet.
They give me hope for the possibility of survival in this location. I reckon when it comes to the crunch, these will be the people who'll understand the importance of cooperation, while the people born and raised here will, for the most part I expect, be squabbling amid empty supermarket shelves and looking for some strongman to lead them back to the good old days.
Huzzah! A sensible human - so rare! :) Let's get real about preparing for accelerating breakdown. Don't 'just collapse' - #JustCollapse!
JustCollapse.org
Thanks for that site - it's encouraging when you come across a bunch of people who have been thinking along the same lines as you, makes you feel less alone. I especially like the focus on localism.
In our family we call it "falling through the gaps" - letting go of the current insane culture early while we still have resources available to begin a new one.
Thanks! Yes - I like that phrase. Indeed- it's a mad, mad, world. We can't change the past, obviously - and we can't be certain about the future. But we are here, now, in the present, and we can still do what we can, while we can. That's the effort for a 'just' collapse. :)
You are aware those “greedy, violent, competitive psychopaths” include you and I….
Every single thing you own, use, buy, maintain, touch, and eat is essentially energy. And even today, 83% of all energy used on earth comes from fossil fuels. Electricity is only 20% of worldwide energy usage, and 60% of electricity is generated by fossil fuels.
It’s not cultural, it’s because there is no substitute for fossil fuels. Every alternative energy source is many times as expensive if used as a replacement for fossil fuels. Currently, alternatives are an intermittent supplement only.
The alternative energy being built every year doesn’t even keep up with annual increases in energy consumption. Remember the alternatives is only the 12% electricity which is fossil fuel powered. And that increased consumption of energy is actually the embedded energy in all goods, services, transportation and food, not just electricity.
So, to “transition” away from fossil fuels, you can start by not buying a single thing. Because everything you buy is almost entirely composed of fossil fuel energy. This includes stopping eating, because all food is entirely dependent on fossil fuels.
There is no energy transition, because there can’t be one. There is no substitute for fossil fuels. And every alternative is MANY, MANY times more expensive as a REPLACEMENT for fossil fuels. Are you willing pay many times more for absolutely everything? Including food and taxes? Because that’s what an “energy transition” would involve, and that’s why it’s not happening and never will happen, until we run out of fossil fuels.
I am aware. Tell me, what part of my words implied that I believe there will be an energy transition? Forgive me for my miscommunication.
We do find ourselves in a sociopathic state, but I don't think most humans are sociopathic in the fringe manner of the oligarchs. The guilt most of us bear is that, over many generations, we've allowed our social fabric to unravel. We've allowed ourselves to become caught up in vast hierarchies, a Machine beyond human scale, beyond our capacity to affect with our sociable instincts. We have built a runaway train without brakes that is charging full steam ahead toward a cliff. There is no one in charge. There is no stopping this disaster. That is why I said our problem is cultural. Our alienation is what prevented us from acting in our own interests sooner, even though we knew what was needed in every fibre of our being.
The choice left to us is not whether the Machine will collapse or not. We will be forced out of our current habits by plain old thermodynamics, into lives of ever increasing hardship, witnessing the starvation of billions. The living will envy the dead.
The choice we have is whether to cower in fear and despair or to find the courage to struggle, to rebuild communities that will make our suffering a little less than if we face our fate alone, and give breath to the hope that we will not become completely extinct. In this way we can resume the legacy of all life on Earth and rejoin the biosphere.
Each night, in my dreams, I see our future and it fills me with sadness, because I can also see that other Earth. The one in which we made different use of the one-time energy windfall we were gifted, the bequest of our distant ancestors, since we did not allow our pursuit of knowledge to lead us to forget the wisdom ingrained in us by our Mother.
But here we are in the world where we found Her underground stores and foolishly set off an explosion. Oh well. Since we've become so good at digging, let us bury ourselves in Her crust and in Her sheltering embrace perhaps we might find the strength we need.
Agree entirely with your points. I wasn’t implying you believed in an energy transition or not.
Much of the fossil fuels used to date have been squandered and the remaining will certainly be mindlessly squandered.
Only then will the masses wonder “what happened?”. Of course they will blame everyone else for running out. This is inevitable. The only outcome.
Individuals can be smart and do the right thing for themselves. Society is stupid and will never think of the future, only of themselves, for today.
I am not one to cower. Instead, I will see how I can take advantage of the opportunity. Not so much for myself, but for my family and descendants. Such as establishing a sustainable base of land on a large body of fresh water. Away from large population centres. I’m currently on the Great Lakes, this is a region which will naturally be moderated from the most extreme warming.
Sorry to say, but the most important thing is to establish generational wealth, and a means of sustaining income/revenue well into the future. This will determine who survives and who doesn’t.
There will be a gradual descent into the lack of energy, then at some point, it will happen very quickly. The vast majority won’t be prepared, and only substantial amounts of wealth will get some people out of that trap. It can’t be “financial” wealth, with the massive debt every level of government and corporations are carrying, the “system” will likely collapse. It will need to be physical wealth, and as mentioned, a means of continuing to generate income/revenue.
The worst off will be people who are employed by a government or company. They are totally reliant on others.
I have personally seen what it’s like to have no source of energy (no goods or services of any kind). I was working in Liberia a few years after the end of their 16 year civil war. There was still absolutely nothing in the country. No outside goods, no manufacturing, no energy of any kind, not even food. There was no animal in the country larger than a large rodent. Everything else had been eaten. The people who were doing the best had businesses. Something to consider.
As always, thank you for this B. I try to point other people to this space to learn more about the challenges we face. Keep up the good work.
Thank you for this data filled analysis. One of the Laws of Thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor lost, only changed in form. Our current fossil fuel dependent 8B+ human population has multiplied 3,000 times from our ecologically balanced and selfsustaining ancestral Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands, fueled by the fossil fuels we burn. Unfortunately, for our offspring, that fossil fuel burning is generating, along with the trapped solar radiation due to CO2/GHGs, the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. Little wonder that we are setting global temp increase records year after year and our ecosystem is collapsing. In the Wayne National Forest near my home, there are 6,000 abandoned oil/gas wells.
We will be/are our own undoing, but we never think of the world we are leaving for the next generation. C3S (EU) predicts that, at the current rate of global heating, we may see 1 degC global temp increases EVERY FIVE YEARS, so that any child born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD in a world 6 degC hotter than today, an unlivable world for all but the uber riche few remnants of our species. Finis.
Why don't you start eating only bread and vegetables in order to "save the planet"? Also no trips for you. STOP using the internet as well. No electricity or heat in winter. Common. Give us an example.
Even a loaf of bread is energy negative when accounting for seed to table energy inputs. Back of the envelope calculations puts it about 1.3 fossil energy units in for 1 unit of edible energy out (country dependent as grain yield matters). Overall current US food system has an "EROI" of 0.1 - actually it is worse because of the energy cost of energy going up - it's now more like 14 or 15 units of fossil energy going in for every edible food energy unit in your pantry....
Dude. Stop and think for a minute. If I'm eating a chicken sandwich, the wheat comes from Canada, the chickens from Holland, and the chicken feed from Ukraine, the butter from Brazil, and the whole creation process relies upon thousands of miles of diesel-fueled transport, then that is Craig's point above.
It may be slightly cheaper, due to multinational playing with various tax regimes, but in terms of ENERGY, it is catastrophic.
A locally produced loaf, with local chickens, will not have the same energy cost.
As the oil flow slows, and becomes more expensive, we will have to eat more local, and those communities that are more autarkic will be better placed not to starve.
You get this, its just common sense.
As I said. Start by starving for a couple of days in search for fully locally produced bread. Or give up on your high paid useless job, sell your assets and buy some land and start growing it yourself. Be part of the solution. Reduce your own footprint and only then lecture anyone about the extra high energy they consume per person. This is what all clubs of rome members and fans should do. Otherwise feck off.
The POINT is that once the cheap energy starts to run out and becomes expensive, we are all going to have to do that.
Ironically, if we started now, the oil would last considerably longer. and there would be more local employment, which means more local taxes paid, which means more local services.
I already buy local as much as I can, and avoid the large chains except for a few luxuries. Yes, it is more expensive, but if/when we get a sudden crash - fx, if the US/Israel blows up the Iranian refineries, or when the $ crashes again (Which will happen very very soon) - then there ARE local production which have been supported to survive.
I've moved to a semi-rural area, and there are farms around within decent cycling distance, small family farms not reliant on the global infrastructure to survive.
I know many people who have gone full autarky, and they are very, very happy.
Better to get your own hands dirty than to be working a Bullshit Job (Graeber).
What made you think you were being lectured to Joe? I was just pointing out that we happen to have an energy negative food system for the majority of people. Good on you for being (presumably) self-sufficient (based on your comments so far). Pat yourself on the back but don't make assumptions about the other people commenting here i.e. be constructive rather than combative (yes now I am lecturing).
Can I have yours? Or can I buy it off you? Will you fight me for it? What about me and all my peeps? No - individualist prepping is a good way to get yourself killed. Solidaristic community planning on the other hand provides genuine resilience in face of decline.
Indeed.... if HS is aware of this situation ... the Men Who Run the World are definitely aware https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/who-runs-the-world
Would it be responsible to allow the collapse to happen .. and do nothing to lessen the suffering?
When the power goes out 8B will be on the dark cold streets ... starving.... https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-happens-when-the-power-goes
Will they join hands and sign KOOMbaya ... or will they tear each other to shreds.... and eat the bodies?
Fortunately our masters are doing something to ensure extinction is an orderly event https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-extinction-plan-uep
Nobody survives https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
Thanks, Eddy, but I'm leavin the future up to the Higher Power that gave us this Garden of Eden, which we have so destroyed and debased for anyone left in the collapsing climate/ecosystem. He/She is far more capable and well informed than I, so I'll just let it play out. Just got off the phone with my only living cousin and we are best friends through thick and thin, so, along with the wonderful folks likes yourself I've had the great pleasure of meeting on the net, and my near daily walks down to the banks of the Muskingum River here in Marietta, what else could I ask for? Have a blessed evening and sleep tight, don't let the bed bugs bight! ( :)) Gregg
I think if we do find ourselves facing extinction, we, the ones left for dead, should make it our solemn duty to dig those oligarch motherfuckers out of their fancy bunkers to join the misery party.
Having said that, if the human species does survive the next couple centuries, it'll probably be Derin Kuyu style.
A very interesting post that deserves much attention. You have sent me off on several paths to find out and understand more. Thank you.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Nice work B.
It's best when HS doesn't include a final paragraph of hopium to keep the barnyard animals happy... f789 them if they cannot handle The Truth
I've recently discovered this substack and really love it. I've read the past dozen or so posts. There is much talk of peak oil and rightly so, but has anyone come across a good prediction / model for peak coal? I feel like we should watch out for both.
Alice Friedemann is an excellent source for all things energy and peaky. https://energyskeptic.com/category/fastcrash/peakeverything/peak-coal/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/02/22/have-we-already-passed-world-peak-oil-and-world-peak-coal/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/
You might try following Art Berman on "X" or his excellent blog which can be found on his website: artberman.com on the topic of oil, gas and all fossil fuels.
I was going to suggest the same, but at least one of The Sorcerer's embedded links was to Art's site, so I think there's awareness.
New Zealand is a real life example of this playing out... they are starting to de-industrialize because they are running out of affordable energy.... https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/nz-is-running-out-of-gas-literally
The way they spin this is ... they blame it on a ban of new exploration for oil and gas... only because they cannot tell the barnyard animals the truth - which is ... if there is oil and gas out there... it's too expensive to extract....
They tell the barnyard animals that solar will save the day.... everyone feels better... my advice is that anyone who can leave that country should sell everything ... and exit... NZers can move to Australia without a visa... do it.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/new-zealand-panics Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashes interest rates again, by 50 basis points to 4.75 per cent
Fears mill closures could create ‘ghost towns’ in New Zealand
Amid the cheerful chatter of children playing at Raetihi’s community-based Nancy Winter Early Childhood Centre, there is a palpable tension in the air, with worry etched on the faces of the parents and carers.
Manager Brenda Burnard said the tight-knit community was reeling from the shock of losing its largest employer.
“It really does feel like a car crash happening in slow motion,” she said.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/this-is-what-peak-cheap-energy-looks
I suspect NZ will eventually receive an IMF bailout ... to prevent it from becoming a failed state.
The rest of the world is not far behind
Very good work, B, a fine presentation, which should be clear in any mind which is willing to accept reality.
Excellent summary and explanation. Thank you.
Would we as a civilization be better off not producing solar panels and wind turbines? If we have to use so much precious diesel fuel just to mine the ores and produce and transport them into the field would it not make sense to cease their production to conserve the fossil fuels?
We might be better off designing solar panels, wind turbines, etc, for longevity instead of efficiency. Make them smaller and easier to repair, using common materials whenever possible.
Oil was a one off bonus for mankind. We pissed it away and I think any talk of a replacement is just cope.
It's always an (expensive ) option (using 100+ year-old Fischer-Tropsch process)to make very clean diesel from natural gas (GTL ) or coal (CTL).
As always, your sh*t's on point B.
Peak oil and the EROI scam is basically just that a theory unsupported by Empirical evidence, Lifting costs are decreasing and production increasing . The Narratives are fabricated to support the Price floor scheme that has been in place since the 1930's
Tim Morgans Seeds Falsified? Peak Oil Falsified.
The Peak Oil theory refuses to die, it is contradicted by the evidence.
https://grubstreetinexile.substack.com/p/tim-morgans-seeds-falsified-peak