There is a rule in ecology called the maximum power principle formulated by Lokta in 1925. It can be summarized as follows: “The systems that survive in competition are those that develop more power inflow and use it best to meet the needs of survival.” If one wanted to describe the animating force behind the rise and fall of civilizations, they would be hard pressed to come up with a better one. Complex systems — such as our modern industrial world economy — appear to be ruled by the same ecological principles to which all other complex organisms obey. These rules are so universal, independent from size and scale from microbes to galaxies, that one would do better to call them natural laws. Join me on a wild ride from bacteria to petroleum extraction to see how these rules govern our daily life and how they could eventually lead to the decline of what we call modernity.
I appreciate how you are able to illuminate the physics of growth and collapse. It’s a sobering analysis that doesn’t get distracted by the political entanglements of human endeavors.
" ...If there ever is a time of plenty, this very fact will automatically lead to an increase in the population until the natural state of starvation and misery is restored. In a universe of electrons and selfish genes, blind physical forces and genetic replication, some people are going to get hurt, other people are going to get lucky, and you won't find any rhyme or reason in it, nor any justice. The universe that we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but pitiless indifference.”
― Richard Dawkins, River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life
Mostly right but no ... in this case collapse will be total ... the supply chains will rupture ... and 8 billion will take to the streets angry and hungry.
No oil. No food. Permanently.
Yes all the infrastructure will be available -- but it will be useless.
This is what will happen:
Murder and ‘corpse-eating’
Starving peasants were observed digging up recently buried corpses for their flesh. Accounts of murder or euthanasia, followed by butchery and feasting, were also reported. One woman refused to give over the body of her dead husband because she was using it for meat. Parents and siblings ate the bodies of dead children.
As the death toll increased, illegal trade in human flesh also emerged. Quantities of nondescript meat appeared in markets in Russian towns and cities, some of it undoubtedly human. An aid worker wrote of the situation in late 1921:
“Families were killing and devouring fathers, grandfathers and children. Ghastly rumours about sausages prepared with human corpses (the technical expression was ‘ground to sausages’) though officially contradicted, were common. In the market, among rough huckstresses swearing at each other, one heard threats to make sausages of a person.”
All the while many companies are getting ready to start mining the deep sea in the next years and decades. Something tells me their plans won't end up as expected in their projects and studies.
I just discovered this blog, absolutely brilliant! Thank you for clear explanations and very valid perspectives from an enlightened engineering point of view.
After reading several of your posts, I see we read/watch many of the same resources (Nate Hagens, Tom Murphy, Alan Urban, etc.). I haven’t yet come across Jem Bendell being mentioned though, are you familiar with his work? He came up with the concept of Deep Adaptation, which organically evolved into its own community (DA Forum), which I recently joined. His new book “Breaking Together” is a very good resource on the matter of ongoing civilisational collapse.
Looking forward to more insightful posts from you. Take care ❤️
Thank you B🙏
I appreciate how you are able to illuminate the physics of growth and collapse. It’s a sobering analysis that doesn’t get distracted by the political entanglements of human endeavors.
I loved this post! And I could read it twice by reading it once I loved this post! And I could read it twice by reading it once.
Grim prognosis.
Didn't a guy called Malthus offer a similar analysis?
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-15/overshoot-nutshell-malthus-was-optimist/
" ...If there ever is a time of plenty, this very fact will automatically lead to an increase in the population until the natural state of starvation and misery is restored. In a universe of electrons and selfish genes, blind physical forces and genetic replication, some people are going to get hurt, other people are going to get lucky, and you won't find any rhyme or reason in it, nor any justice. The universe that we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but pitiless indifference.”
― Richard Dawkins, River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life
Excellent essay.
Thank you.
Mostly right but no ... in this case collapse will be total ... the supply chains will rupture ... and 8 billion will take to the streets angry and hungry.
No oil. No food. Permanently.
Yes all the infrastructure will be available -- but it will be useless.
This is what will happen:
Murder and ‘corpse-eating’
Starving peasants were observed digging up recently buried corpses for their flesh. Accounts of murder or euthanasia, followed by butchery and feasting, were also reported. One woman refused to give over the body of her dead husband because she was using it for meat. Parents and siblings ate the bodies of dead children.
As the death toll increased, illegal trade in human flesh also emerged. Quantities of nondescript meat appeared in markets in Russian towns and cities, some of it undoubtedly human. An aid worker wrote of the situation in late 1921:
“Families were killing and devouring fathers, grandfathers and children. Ghastly rumours about sausages prepared with human corpses (the technical expression was ‘ground to sausages’) though officially contradicted, were common. In the market, among rough huckstresses swearing at each other, one heard threats to make sausages of a person.”
https://alphahistory.com/russianrevolution/great-famine-of-1921/#Cannibalism
But fortunately we are unlikely to experience that because they are exterminating us to prevent this nightmare from unfolding https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
All the while many companies are getting ready to start mining the deep sea in the next years and decades. Something tells me their plans won't end up as expected in their projects and studies.
Totally coincidentally, in 2019 a 'virus' called SARS-CoV-2 appeared ...
I just discovered this blog, absolutely brilliant! Thank you for clear explanations and very valid perspectives from an enlightened engineering point of view.
After reading several of your posts, I see we read/watch many of the same resources (Nate Hagens, Tom Murphy, Alan Urban, etc.). I haven’t yet come across Jem Bendell being mentioned though, are you familiar with his work? He came up with the concept of Deep Adaptation, which organically evolved into its own community (DA Forum), which I recently joined. His new book “Breaking Together” is a very good resource on the matter of ongoing civilisational collapse.
Looking forward to more insightful posts from you. Take care ❤️
I strongly believe that railroads will become the only economic form of transportation.
Good Work! :-)