I’ve been writing long and extensively about peak oil for some time now, still, after so many years spent on researching the topic, I had to realize that I might’ve missed an important point.
We cannot afford to wait for the "elites," especially if they are United States Democrats, to admit that we must shift to a low energy lifestyle NOW, not in 2030, to save any species alive. No office jobs, no electric cars, no "bio"fuels, and especially, no more war machine. The "elites" will drive us to our doom if we continue to let them.
Another one that still doesn't understand the ROLE of the Secular Ruling Families & Billionaires in the civilization he[we] slaves-on!
"We are at the very end of the Oil Age" says he... He appears to not realize that this "end" is not a real end because oil is not ending. The SRF&Billionaires want to avoid that ALL uman animals keep having access to it (and to all the other products oil provides) and by so extend Their Bubble Wealthy Life.
What you describe in your posts is essentially what is very likely to happen in our near future, in our real world. In doing so, you find yourself, of course, in a tiny, tiny minority of people holding these views. Not surprising. There is absolutely nothing in our media, the arts—literary fiction—to give a voice or an image to this impending reality. Without knowing you, I wrote a novel, "Mona" (self-published on Amazon; not one of the 5 big publishers would ever publish such a story), picturing very closely in terms of real life for commoners what you envision: starting from our present political and social reality, a story in a world descending into the tyrannical rule of the elites, religious fanaticism, extreme inequality and poverty, the deadly consequences of global warming, and the dire depletion of resources. The end of capitalism, killed by capitalism itself and replaced by neo-feudalism. There is not a single other fiction book available depicting this same impending reality you write about. This in itself is another sign of our society's total denial.
Dr. Arnoux in my humble opinion is a plagiarist and a snake oil salesman
For the second part first:
He continues to claim that he has invented a machine for every home that provides all energy needs, called the genie or something like that. Check his website. I do not want to search it now because it is boring.
for the first part:
His Graphs are pretty much the same as the ones created by the Hills Group, an oil research firm that did some thermodynamics calculations decades ago.
If you think that economists do not know energy, they certainly do not understand thermodynamics.
About 20 years ago they already knew that engines will stop running in 2022 but they could not pin it down because the data is not clear.
Berndt Warm from ASPO Germany is the only person in the world who does follow up work on that because the Hills Group is long time no longer interested / existing in this topic because it drives away business.
Two potential 'accelerators' you missed out that is worth mentioning at the moment
- The military use and absolutely depend on massive amount of those same fuels to keep their fuel-hungry jets and tanks and ships running, and multiply that 100-fold or 1,000-fold during a war. At the moment America is lined up with NATO for a war with Russia in Ukraine, a war against China protecting Taiwan and the Philippines, and is perhaps also getting itself dragged into the imminent Middle East war protecting Israel (and probably the Saudi oilfields too).
The military always take first, so that would immediately mean little or nothing left for public use.
-Secondly, in times of crisis, every country protects it's own first. So oil producer countries will stop exports and nationalise their resources the moment this crisis hits the news channels, public domain and nationalist politicians. Almost all Western economies are fossil based, and have to import some or even all their oil. Their economies would collapse within weeks, and supermarket shelves would be empty within days. That includes America with fossil use some 8 times that of Germany per capita, particularly in some of it's regions, particularly in winter.
I always assumed I might live long enough, perhaps to 2040 or even 2045, to glean the first indications of coming Western society's problems, like Peak Oil, climate change, mass migration, and world wars. I thought it would be an intellectual pastime for my retirement. A spectator sport. I didn't need to experience them for myself, thank you very much!
Maybe time for a rethink. Maybe time for EVERYONE to have a rethink?
We cannot afford to wait for the "elites," especially if they are United States Democrats, to admit that we must shift to a low energy lifestyle NOW, not in 2030, to save any species alive. No office jobs, no electric cars, no "bio"fuels, and especially, no more war machine. The "elites" will drive us to our doom if we continue to let them.
Thank you B🙏
Lots of information. Much to think about. The time line to major disruption is considerably shorter than 2050 or beyond.
We are very close to the end game... that is why they have prepped us for extermination
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
Another one that still doesn't understand the ROLE of the Secular Ruling Families & Billionaires in the civilization he[we] slaves-on!
"We are at the very end of the Oil Age" says he... He appears to not realize that this "end" is not a real end because oil is not ending. The SRF&Billionaires want to avoid that ALL uman animals keep having access to it (and to all the other products oil provides) and by so extend Their Bubble Wealthy Life.
You do not understand economies of scale.
In that world nobody will survive that does not labor hard 24/7
You will not be able to create an army in that world because there simply will not be enough food due to habitat destruction.
In this point I agree with Fast Eddy that killing us all off is more humane.
The ancient kings had rich lands to plunder. Slaves that is.
Our entire globe is essentially dead now and the last remaining reservoirs for slaves will be dead soon.
Look up forest fires in Africa, The Pacific Islands, Canada, South America this year.
I do not endore killing a single human.
I can just understand the cold logic of a bunch of idiots that ran capitalism for 2000 years and did not change course a single iota.
Funny, you clearly don't understand the Civilization you slave on.
Excellent article! Thank you.
Dear "B"
What you describe in your posts is essentially what is very likely to happen in our near future, in our real world. In doing so, you find yourself, of course, in a tiny, tiny minority of people holding these views. Not surprising. There is absolutely nothing in our media, the arts—literary fiction—to give a voice or an image to this impending reality. Without knowing you, I wrote a novel, "Mona" (self-published on Amazon; not one of the 5 big publishers would ever publish such a story), picturing very closely in terms of real life for commoners what you envision: starting from our present political and social reality, a story in a world descending into the tyrannical rule of the elites, religious fanaticism, extreme inequality and poverty, the deadly consequences of global warming, and the dire depletion of resources. The end of capitalism, killed by capitalism itself and replaced by neo-feudalism. There is not a single other fiction book available depicting this same impending reality you write about. This in itself is another sign of our society's total denial.
Sorry to digress here.
Dr. Arnoux in my humble opinion is a plagiarist and a snake oil salesman
For the second part first:
He continues to claim that he has invented a machine for every home that provides all energy needs, called the genie or something like that. Check his website. I do not want to search it now because it is boring.
for the first part:
His Graphs are pretty much the same as the ones created by the Hills Group, an oil research firm that did some thermodynamics calculations decades ago.
If you think that economists do not know energy, they certainly do not understand thermodynamics.
About 20 years ago they already knew that engines will stop running in 2022 but they could not pin it down because the data is not clear.
Berndt Warm from ASPO Germany is the only person in the world who does follow up work on that because the Hills Group is long time no longer interested / existing in this topic because it drives away business.
A Book is here:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363862194_Calculations_on_the_Lifespan_of_Vehicle_Production_and_Petroleum_Production
Hand it over to your physicists and tell me if they find an error.
There has been a smear campaign against the ETP Model some 10 years ago by a certain physicist and I looked in the papers and found a mistake.
It is always the same mistake: confusing +/- sign in Thermodynamics.
I tried to have it corrected but to no avail.
Anyhow since then ETP is officially been declared dead.
Berndt Warm is still doing well, *cough*....
Good post, thanks!
Two potential 'accelerators' you missed out that is worth mentioning at the moment
- The military use and absolutely depend on massive amount of those same fuels to keep their fuel-hungry jets and tanks and ships running, and multiply that 100-fold or 1,000-fold during a war. At the moment America is lined up with NATO for a war with Russia in Ukraine, a war against China protecting Taiwan and the Philippines, and is perhaps also getting itself dragged into the imminent Middle East war protecting Israel (and probably the Saudi oilfields too).
The military always take first, so that would immediately mean little or nothing left for public use.
-Secondly, in times of crisis, every country protects it's own first. So oil producer countries will stop exports and nationalise their resources the moment this crisis hits the news channels, public domain and nationalist politicians. Almost all Western economies are fossil based, and have to import some or even all their oil. Their economies would collapse within weeks, and supermarket shelves would be empty within days. That includes America with fossil use some 8 times that of Germany per capita, particularly in some of it's regions, particularly in winter.
I always assumed I might live long enough, perhaps to 2040 or even 2045, to glean the first indications of coming Western society's problems, like Peak Oil, climate change, mass migration, and world wars. I thought it would be an intellectual pastime for my retirement. A spectator sport. I didn't need to experience them for myself, thank you very much!
Maybe time for a rethink. Maybe time for EVERYONE to have a rethink?
In the meantime, Prof. Simon Michaux is looking at ammonia as an energy carrier.