Modern — overdeveloped — societies in the West are already in a severe crisis. Something, which will eventually turn into a long global emergency in the years and decades ahead. A five centuries long era of economic growth — ushered in by colonization and leading to the plundering of natural, mineral and most of all fossil fuel resources —
A quite realistic asessment of our failing civilization. We have existing examples of how this process works. Haití, for instance, has been in population overshoot and state of collapse for ages. Government ceases to exist, and a more primitive, feudalistic local organization takes its place: local gangs. But we also have worse examples of present day collapse: Palestines in Gaza, crowded and desperate, make an attempt at breakout and are crushed brutally.
I totally agree with your prognosis. Now, can we start building local networks of people who realize what is coming and start to collaborate in preparation? How can your readers in a geographical area connect with one another?
Won’t a drastically reduced world population actually make a lot of these issues easier to deal with? As you rightly point out, population numbers are trending down for a host of reasons. One only needs to look at the population pyramids of the modern world to see that a 40%+ decline in population over the next 50 - 100 years is in progress. Seems like this will extend the useful life of energy reserves and make alternatives more viable because demand will be lower by default.
To be clear, I am not advocating for population control or anything of the sort. Nor am I saying that this means the proverbial Line can keep going up and to the right. Rather it seems that most decisions being made are to deal with these conundrums, not to actually solve them. It strikes me that the powers that be understand all of this and are trying (crudely and riddled with major issues) to manage through this in a way that doesn’t lead to catastrophe.
I agree that there is an element of government-approved corporate consolidation to keep the grift going. But I can’t help but think that physics will help bring an end to that. Not in some dramatic way, but in a reorienting of resources such that they are allocated based on underlying factors, not top down directives.
As you say, collapse isn’t some Event, but a long process of adjustment in which we all must deal with physical reality. Given this, it seems to me that the best thing a person can do is understand that this isn’t something to hide from in a bunker. Rather you must live actively and try and use this understanding to your advantage.
B, Thank you, You have more of the collapse pieces assembled correctly than most. You have included some views of several unfolding futures. However, you have not put numbers on "who is going to get injured and when." Let me provide one view in the form of short animation-- Civilization's: "Running out of gas" story. youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0 9 minutes
There are several more short videos that may help with your project. They are posted at www.skil.org. I even suggest the design of a civilization that would not collapse. ”A non-injury producing Civilization” 55 minutes
The owners are likely to overlay war, famine and pestilence over the degradation taking place in the hyperfinancialized west.
Don't bite.
Grow vegetables; give away what you can't eat or store effectively. Be a friend. Have a good bike that is well fitted to your body that can carry modest luggage or groceries. Ride it at least 4 hours a week, though you may have to work up to that.
Pray and meditate, in a group if you can find one that you fit into.
I think a collapse is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy, “Slowly, and then all at once”. In the West, we have a debt-based financial system. It requires perpetual growth, or it will collapse. Growth means growth in capital, labor, and inputs.
(Why growth? - All money is loaned into existence at interest, so it requires $10 + interest to pay back the original $10 that was loaned out. The sum, greater than the original $10, must come from somewhere, must come from future growth.)
If fiat currency is a demand on future units of energy, then growth is based on the (unwarranted) assumption that future energy will be available to satisfy my demand. Right now, the economy runs on the delusion that this will be the case, i.e., the energy will be there to satisfy all of the existing claims.
So the question arises, what happens when it is clear that growth is no longer possible? Will I loan out $10, knowing that I will only get $8 back? Wasn’t this the issue in 2008, a potential locking up of the financial system? Banks did not want to loan out money because they weren’t sure that they were going to get paid back. Supply chains run on this liquidity, this willingness to loan out money. When the supply chains stop, and the workers go back to their villages (China), are they coming back? – I think that once the supply chains break, I am not sure that they will come back.
I think that the Western financial system will collapse, a bunch of people will starve to death, and then, depending on the bandit situation, regional supply chains may spring up to take up the slack, but these are big ifs. (FE would point to the spent fuel ponds scattered around and say that vaxxing (predominately) the Western world, was not an accident. Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind, amirite?)
Movies and stories are for catharsis and commerce, not "truth". We'll watch and read on our devices and subscriptions until the internet crashes and the power goes off. And we'll ask: "Why didn't anyone warn us/do anything?"
recently i discovered there is a 'post-doom' wikipedia article - the concept was articulated by michael dowd, who died last october at the age of 64
in some ways collapse is already under way, but it might be like going bankrupt - slowly, step by step, and then suddenly all at once - the gradualness of what's going on now might have a major inflection point
This is very good. Ian Welsh has been hammering on these points for a long time. "ianwelsh.net", an excellent site. Others- William Gibson, the SF author, has a concept of "The Jackpot" which is a realistic simulation as outlined above, leading to a much smaller population of survivors.
I believe that railroads will re-emerge as the dominant form of transportation, due to economics of fuel use. But, they won't be the same mix of train sizes. Very small solar-powered/large-battery railcars are feasible today. If I was managing a "family office" for a multigeneration fortune today, I would buy railroads and rights-of-way.
Good overview. FIY, I often point out that "REAL downshifting is necessary for our own mental health anyway, even if limitless energy were available", but it is also something that would, in your words, "make collapse much more human".
A quite realistic asessment of our failing civilization. We have existing examples of how this process works. Haití, for instance, has been in population overshoot and state of collapse for ages. Government ceases to exist, and a more primitive, feudalistic local organization takes its place: local gangs. But we also have worse examples of present day collapse: Palestines in Gaza, crowded and desperate, make an attempt at breakout and are crushed brutally.
I totally agree with your prognosis. Now, can we start building local networks of people who realize what is coming and start to collaborate in preparation? How can your readers in a geographical area connect with one another?
Where can you get one of those red houses?
Thank you B🙏
Won’t a drastically reduced world population actually make a lot of these issues easier to deal with? As you rightly point out, population numbers are trending down for a host of reasons. One only needs to look at the population pyramids of the modern world to see that a 40%+ decline in population over the next 50 - 100 years is in progress. Seems like this will extend the useful life of energy reserves and make alternatives more viable because demand will be lower by default.
To be clear, I am not advocating for population control or anything of the sort. Nor am I saying that this means the proverbial Line can keep going up and to the right. Rather it seems that most decisions being made are to deal with these conundrums, not to actually solve them. It strikes me that the powers that be understand all of this and are trying (crudely and riddled with major issues) to manage through this in a way that doesn’t lead to catastrophe.
I agree that there is an element of government-approved corporate consolidation to keep the grift going. But I can’t help but think that physics will help bring an end to that. Not in some dramatic way, but in a reorienting of resources such that they are allocated based on underlying factors, not top down directives.
As you say, collapse isn’t some Event, but a long process of adjustment in which we all must deal with physical reality. Given this, it seems to me that the best thing a person can do is understand that this isn’t something to hide from in a bunker. Rather you must live actively and try and use this understanding to your advantage.
When the financial system vapourizes... the entire world will within hours ... descend into chaos.
The supermarkets will within a day or so be looted and permanently emptied.
There will be no power - so no water. There will be no petrol.
This is what collapse light looks like - black in NYC 1997
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4krDA1kjsP0
This was a temporary situation - and yet...
The coming collapse will be rapid - and global... and we will be killing and eating each other as we face starvation.
Fortunately the men who run the world will not allow it to come to this - they are exterminating us
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
B, Thank you, You have more of the collapse pieces assembled correctly than most. You have included some views of several unfolding futures. However, you have not put numbers on "who is going to get injured and when." Let me provide one view in the form of short animation-- Civilization's: "Running out of gas" story. youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0 9 minutes
There are several more short videos that may help with your project. They are posted at www.skil.org. I even suggest the design of a civilization that would not collapse. ”A non-injury producing Civilization” 55 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYR5Ix-1wMs. Jackalpert4@gmail.com
The owners are likely to overlay war, famine and pestilence over the degradation taking place in the hyperfinancialized west.
Don't bite.
Grow vegetables; give away what you can't eat or store effectively. Be a friend. Have a good bike that is well fitted to your body that can carry modest luggage or groceries. Ride it at least 4 hours a week, though you may have to work up to that.
Pray and meditate, in a group if you can find one that you fit into.
I have nothing fancy since before Y2k.
I think a collapse is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy, “Slowly, and then all at once”. In the West, we have a debt-based financial system. It requires perpetual growth, or it will collapse. Growth means growth in capital, labor, and inputs.
(Why growth? - All money is loaned into existence at interest, so it requires $10 + interest to pay back the original $10 that was loaned out. The sum, greater than the original $10, must come from somewhere, must come from future growth.)
If fiat currency is a demand on future units of energy, then growth is based on the (unwarranted) assumption that future energy will be available to satisfy my demand. Right now, the economy runs on the delusion that this will be the case, i.e., the energy will be there to satisfy all of the existing claims.
So the question arises, what happens when it is clear that growth is no longer possible? Will I loan out $10, knowing that I will only get $8 back? Wasn’t this the issue in 2008, a potential locking up of the financial system? Banks did not want to loan out money because they weren’t sure that they were going to get paid back. Supply chains run on this liquidity, this willingness to loan out money. When the supply chains stop, and the workers go back to their villages (China), are they coming back? – I think that once the supply chains break, I am not sure that they will come back.
I think that the Western financial system will collapse, a bunch of people will starve to death, and then, depending on the bandit situation, regional supply chains may spring up to take up the slack, but these are big ifs. (FE would point to the spent fuel ponds scattered around and say that vaxxing (predominately) the Western world, was not an accident. Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind, amirite?)
Movies and stories are for catharsis and commerce, not "truth". We'll watch and read on our devices and subscriptions until the internet crashes and the power goes off. And we'll ask: "Why didn't anyone warn us/do anything?"
Thanks for warning us B! 👏
recently i discovered there is a 'post-doom' wikipedia article - the concept was articulated by michael dowd, who died last october at the age of 64
in some ways collapse is already under way, but it might be like going bankrupt - slowly, step by step, and then suddenly all at once - the gradualness of what's going on now might have a major inflection point
This is very good. Ian Welsh has been hammering on these points for a long time. "ianwelsh.net", an excellent site. Others- William Gibson, the SF author, has a concept of "The Jackpot" which is a realistic simulation as outlined above, leading to a much smaller population of survivors.
I believe that railroads will re-emerge as the dominant form of transportation, due to economics of fuel use. But, they won't be the same mix of train sizes. Very small solar-powered/large-battery railcars are feasible today. If I was managing a "family office" for a multigeneration fortune today, I would buy railroads and rights-of-way.
Good overview. FIY, I often point out that "REAL downshifting is necessary for our own mental health anyway, even if limitless energy were available", but it is also something that would, in your words, "make collapse much more human".
See as example the central part of this post: https://mfioretti.substack.com/p/a-nuclear-power-offer-that-you-cannot