If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident
However, many of the radioactive elements in spent fuel have long half-lives. For example, plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years, and plutonium-240 has a half-life of 6,800 years. Because it contains these long half-lived radioactive elements, spent fuel must be isolated and controlled for thousands of years.
Great article again as a 24 year old software engineer living in an urban place having read a lot of B,JMG,Tom Murphy and others. There is a sense developing within me about some level of radical acceptance cripping in but It is making me more confused as to what should be a future course of action and what skills at bare minimum should someone know like what are the first steps towards working towards this radical acceptance. If anyone in the comments section going through the same thoughts pls connect with me.
I’m just a random guy on the internet, but here are a few thoughts and suggestions I have.
Understanding these things, and converting understanding into a plan for your life, is not a process with steps but a path you walk. You are on a path now. Stay on the path—don’t get distracted or lulled into a sense of safety.
Acceptance takes time. It’s not a purely logical thing, you have to feel your way thru it too—you have to grieve, because the future we were taught to believe in and expect was a lie. And that’s painful. But you can find acceptance and peace, if you allow yourself to grieve.
Spend time learning about nature! Try to connect with nature. We are all animals—we are all a part of the family of living things on this beautiful planet. Learn about plants and animals and ecology. Not because it’s useful, but because they are friends and family to us. This will help you get a feel for where you are in life in what life is about. Spirituality is a big and necessary aspect too, because humans are animals that needed stories about life and death and where we came from and where we’re going in order to feel ok about the universe and our place in it.
When you think about skills, think about needs. What are your needs? Probably the same as mine: water, food, and shelter. What are the skills you need to provide those basic things? You don’t have to go crazy with it, this is a path too, and it takes a long time. And man has never met all his basic needs all by himself for his whole life, we have always lived in communities where we cooperate to survive.
Learn about pre-industrial methods of doing agriculture. Try to garden, and build those skills. Very important.
A great interview with Tim Garrett on open systems, thermodynamics, snowflakes, collapse..
According to him the key metric is the rate of change (differential) of global energy consumption that is the indicator of collapse and this has been in decline for over twenty years.
"For now I can only lay out the fundamentals based on what I learned so far:"
I like your list, but it is missing one huge item: community.
For at least some 200,000 years, humans have gathered in groups of 20 to 150 or so. Being exiled from such a group was generally a death sentence.
The days of the "rugged individualist" are over, tied, as they were by either "taking over" so-called "uninhabited" lands occupied by mostly-sustainable indigenous people, or by "drawing down" on the fossil fuel teat, by stocking up on ammunition, survival food, etc.
Whatever future humanity has will be driven by current photosynthesis, and it will be hard work, requiring many hands, with diverse skills.
Beat the rush! Start your tribe today, before it's too late!
"At best, it [conservation] means we will run out of energy a little more slowly." — Ronald Reagan
Thank you for another terrific essay!
Nice article but I'll rain on the parade:
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/the-devils-scenario-near-miss-at-fukushima-is-a-warning-for-u-s/
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16628547/
However, many of the radioactive elements in spent fuel have long half-lives. For example, plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years, and plutonium-240 has a half-life of 6,800 years. Because it contains these long half-lived radioactive elements, spent fuel must be isolated and controlled for thousands of years.
Thank you B 🙏
Great article again as a 24 year old software engineer living in an urban place having read a lot of B,JMG,Tom Murphy and others. There is a sense developing within me about some level of radical acceptance cripping in but It is making me more confused as to what should be a future course of action and what skills at bare minimum should someone know like what are the first steps towards working towards this radical acceptance. If anyone in the comments section going through the same thoughts pls connect with me.
I’m just a random guy on the internet, but here are a few thoughts and suggestions I have.
Understanding these things, and converting understanding into a plan for your life, is not a process with steps but a path you walk. You are on a path now. Stay on the path—don’t get distracted or lulled into a sense of safety.
Acceptance takes time. It’s not a purely logical thing, you have to feel your way thru it too—you have to grieve, because the future we were taught to believe in and expect was a lie. And that’s painful. But you can find acceptance and peace, if you allow yourself to grieve.
Spend time learning about nature! Try to connect with nature. We are all animals—we are all a part of the family of living things on this beautiful planet. Learn about plants and animals and ecology. Not because it’s useful, but because they are friends and family to us. This will help you get a feel for where you are in life in what life is about. Spirituality is a big and necessary aspect too, because humans are animals that needed stories about life and death and where we came from and where we’re going in order to feel ok about the universe and our place in it.
When you think about skills, think about needs. What are your needs? Probably the same as mine: water, food, and shelter. What are the skills you need to provide those basic things? You don’t have to go crazy with it, this is a path too, and it takes a long time. And man has never met all his basic needs all by himself for his whole life, we have always lived in communities where we cooperate to survive.
Learn about pre-industrial methods of doing agriculture. Try to garden, and build those skills. Very important.
Anyways… sorry, I hope some of this is helpful.
Thanks Derek for your thoughtful response and you have rightfully said that it is a long path that one has to be on rather than it be a process.
Excellent article boiling down physical reality vs. the continuing delusion being fed to us.
Can we wake up in time to flatten the descent? I am doubtful. The inmates run the asylum.
Good writing as per usual.
Another dent in the CO2 drives heating narrative? :
https://frontline.news/post/new-study-shows-carbon-dioxide-s-impact-on-global-warming-ended-decades-ago
A great interview with Tim Garrett on open systems, thermodynamics, snowflakes, collapse..
According to him the key metric is the rate of change (differential) of global energy consumption that is the indicator of collapse and this has been in decline for over twenty years.
The thermodynamics of collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN0fal80K1I
Plus he has a new one I haven't yet listened to :
The thermodynamics of degrowth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M01Q3ZR-Mzs
"For now I can only lay out the fundamentals based on what I learned so far:"
I like your list, but it is missing one huge item: community.
For at least some 200,000 years, humans have gathered in groups of 20 to 150 or so. Being exiled from such a group was generally a death sentence.
The days of the "rugged individualist" are over, tied, as they were by either "taking over" so-called "uninhabited" lands occupied by mostly-sustainable indigenous people, or by "drawing down" on the fossil fuel teat, by stocking up on ammunition, survival food, etc.
Whatever future humanity has will be driven by current photosynthesis, and it will be hard work, requiring many hands, with diverse skills.
Beat the rush! Start your tribe today, before it's too late!
"At best, it [conservation] means we will run out of energy a little more slowly." — Ronald Reagan
100%
As John M Greer said in 2012: 'Collapse now and avoid the rush'.
"Like" (blocked from liking, for some reason).
Your insights on the importance of community and sustainable living are spot on. It’s clear that working together is essential for a better future.
Here's the bible for those who want to create intentional community. (Free to read online, but not downloadable.)
https://archive.org/details/creatinglifetoge0000chri