Spot on. The decline in EROEI doesn't just lead to a "simplified" society; it triggers what we might call Systemic Cannibalism.
When a complex system can no longer pay its "complexity tax" with new energy flows, it stops growing and starts eating itself. We are seeing this play out in real-time: institutions, social classes, and nations are no longer cooperating to expand the pie, but are actively fighting to liquidate each other’s assets to maintain local stability.
Well said. That’s a surprisingly rare viewpoint despite being so obvious to those that have become aware of the interconnection of energy and society. There’s a cascade effect from declining EROEI which I have written about across various articles. Without sounding forward, you’ll likely enjoy my work if you wish to check it out.
Well done, a very plausible analysis. It had to come some time, but 2026 looks like peak oil. We can only hope it augurs a rapid collapse of industrialism and a rapid decline in carbon emissions.
What's amazing to me is that stock markets have yet to react to the near certainty of global economic recession. They say that markets are "forward looking", but right now they seem to be blind. A perfect example of being "energy blind".
Marching like lemmings right off the cliff.* I'm expecting severe hardship in these waning years of my life (close to 70). I wasn't expecting retirement to be like this, but (gestures).
While true physical supply of oil has plateaued, debt based fiat currency has not. So that tells you that the equity markets are facades inflated by all these fiat currencies which have no where to go. Fake unbanked fiat currency = fake equities.
It does appear that way. I wonder if this is a product of algorithmic trading. I've been thinking about the quick responses to ceasefire news by the market and think that may be a factor.
One can't dedicate ALL their energy to research and writing--and engage in discussion too. That is, you never engage in conversations in the comments. Again, understandable. But you should recognize it makes you, unavoidable, a bit blind.
This is not true, in my experience. "Everyone admits that what we are going through is the biggest energy crisis in history, yet western governments, the media and heads of corporations act as if nothing’s happening."
I don't believe that's what most people believe, which you point out yourself in the essay. We believe it will "go away in a few months".
Even if it doesn't most people don't care. Why? The more you talk to people the more you'd understand that aspect of it.
Thank you. I really appreciate the time and effort you put into writing these. Your posts are the only ones I read every single time one lands in my inbox.
This is excellent news. Instead of intentionally cooperating in the destruction of the planet, Trump accidentally collapsed the global economy, thus saving the planet. Way To Go MAGA!
I've suggested elsewhere that given the US president's obsession with his legacy and naming things after himself, we have the Donald J Trump Global Recession.
Stephen J Newbury demurs, saying this belief is a common misconception which misreads American intentionality. He claims "the US went into this conflict knowing exactly what effect it would have on the essential flows through Hormuz. They did it anyway, gaming that the damage would be entirely fatal to their adversaries."
Newbury suggests that Trump & Co are well aware of resource and oil depletion and are proactively seeking to both destroy the competition (Eurasia) and shore up as much as they can for the US.
This argument is quite plausible in light of 1)Tariffs, 2) Venezuela and the threats to Cuba, Greenland, Canada etc which seem deliberately aimed at creating a 'super continent of America' which hogs as many resources as possible, while bankrupting everyone else.
Western culture is based on debt, greed and corruption. No thought of impact on the killing of innocents, the degradation of our planet, the loot and shoot to grab resources .And now we have AI and quantum compute to force the peasants to a life of slavery , while our assets are stripped. Reality has arrived to slap us in the face. Hard.
Amish culture is based on strong community, independent of energy, electronics and fuel. And they survive. They work the land, focus on trades that support their community needs and they trade their ego for humility.
When Jesus walked the earth, he wasn't a politician , a banker, an arms dealer . He was a teacher , a healer and sacrificed his life for us, too stupid to rip the veil of delusion from our face, our brain, our mind.
Interesting to see the '73 embargo given so much weight in "kickstarting" the industrial decline of the West. As tidy narratives go, I like it.
So whose brilliant idea was it to put the "Holy Land" in the same region as all these crucial resources, along with multiple narrow shipping chokepoints? That's a tidy story too!
So I read the article, took an hour, very dense but well-written. It was mildly depressing, with many many caveats. Can't vouch for the calculus, been a while, I'm 85, BS Physics. But the real punch in the mental gut was the lead sentence in the conclusion: "This is the optimistic scenario." Thanks, I think...
A terrific paper. I was excited to find this declaration about being able to distinguish between conventional and biophysical economics:
"The neoclassical model predicts that crack spreads normalize within 6–12 months as supply chains adapt and substitution occurs. The biophysical model has an equally clear prediction: crack spreads remain elevated because the substitution is hardware-constrained and cannot occur on that timescale. These predictions are mutually exclusive and empirically distinguishable."
I have a long-running debate with an economics instructor about the limits to growth. Maybe this will become a counter-example to "substitution" and unlimited human resourcefulness.
Thanks, sorcerer. I'm not an economics theorist or financial pundit. I honestly have a hard time understanding certain financial concepts because my mind doesn't move in those directions. I don't want to smash someone economically or triumph in a skewed, corrupt market.
However, I have "forecasted" for myself so that I can prepared financially and make certain decisions in my life. E.g., I've decided to move ahead with certain household items I put on hold because I don't see those items returning in the near future once they're gone.
I saw the effects of the Covid shutdown quite clearly. Many supply routes never returned. The shelves in many stores were never stocked again to their full capacity. I.e., pull the front items off the shelves and nothing is behind them. Selection became more limited and of cheaper quality. Stores like Costco recovered offering new items, but I suspect their reach provides them opportunities most stores don't get.
I've noticed a marked deterioration of produce in Whole Food store. Markedly so. I no longer trust their produce.
From a simple consumer POV, I can well predict that what returns after this war will be meager and meager for years. My one hope is that local artisans and growers step up to fill new gap. I'm hoping more supply by more local routes.
The items needed in homes, once they return, will be cheaper than ever. Some won't be worth owning. I bought three lined flannel shirts for this last winter, and only one is worth keeping because the other two--made in China--were so poorly sewn. I'm buying now and won't be buying in future years. I'm on a limited retirement income and must make each purchase count.
I read the article and there's no objection: previous crises linked to various oil shocks have had long-term effects, and this latest war will only metaphorically add salt to the wound. It remains to be seen when this current one will end, given that the drums of war are already beating. A small note: there are some little-known aspects of previous oil crises that are not known to the general public, and some information can be found in Eric Laurent's book "La face cachee du petrole," published by Plon in 2006. P.S.: the financial aspect must also be considered, given the current situation and the debt crisis of various countries...
This post is along the lines of what I was envisioning for my next post, "Not Your Grandpappy's Oil Crisis, Part II - only much, much better than I could have done. A must read!
This is a credible analysis in my opinion. It doesn't overstate things, it simply points to today's situation and how it compares to past oil disruptions. That the current situation looks extremely bad by comparison is the inescapable conclusion.
I suspect that israel and the ruling elite wants the world suffering and waring each other.
The same game plan they did in Syria and Iraq and Libia and ,, - except on a global scale.
Yes, we did most or all of those counties for israel, but you always complement the Master, never the servant.
Trump know - I don't think so. He seemed like it would be as easy as israel told him. They sacrificed him and moved the other party into power next elect.
You can't see how they will profit?
Bess you that, that's because you do see the suffering and the Demons sucking it up.
The suffering has color, and they are still rolling out of Hell on earth, israel.
Great article. When you say ‘shaping up to be a decade(s) long crisis’, global oil reserves have around 45 years before they are depleted at current reserve to consumption rate (1.8trn global reserves at 100mbpd). Does the deeper crisis not rest in this stark reality? There is no vast easy to access pool of oil left to find. Barely a major discovery this century. Regardless of Iran conflict, a supply ‘shock’ seems inevitable on a Decade(s) long time horizon. Welcome to be corrected if I’m missing something.
Yes, the Sorcerer agrees and has been saying so for years. You're just catching him in a little rhetorical slip there.
A recent article intro:
"Let me start by stating: the globalized world economy, unable to grow meaningfully for decades now, was on its deathbed already. ... Over the past decades we ran out of all the easy-to-get minerals, crude oil, wood, fish, topsoil etc., and what remained required a disproportionate increase in energy expenditure to get."
Spot on. The decline in EROEI doesn't just lead to a "simplified" society; it triggers what we might call Systemic Cannibalism.
When a complex system can no longer pay its "complexity tax" with new energy flows, it stops growing and starts eating itself. We are seeing this play out in real-time: institutions, social classes, and nations are no longer cooperating to expand the pie, but are actively fighting to liquidate each other’s assets to maintain local stability.
Well said. That’s a surprisingly rare viewpoint despite being so obvious to those that have become aware of the interconnection of energy and society. There’s a cascade effect from declining EROEI which I have written about across various articles. Without sounding forward, you’ll likely enjoy my work if you wish to check it out.
The red Queen 🫅 race morphs into a fight! We will plunder the wildlife and coal and wood 🪵 to extinction and no one will give a fuck.
I will give a fuck, but there really isn't a fucking thing I can do about it.
Well done, a very plausible analysis. It had to come some time, but 2026 looks like peak oil. We can only hope it augurs a rapid collapse of industrialism and a rapid decline in carbon emissions.
What's amazing to me is that stock markets have yet to react to the near certainty of global economic recession. They say that markets are "forward looking", but right now they seem to be blind. A perfect example of being "energy blind".
Marching like lemmings right off the cliff.* I'm expecting severe hardship in these waning years of my life (close to 70). I wasn't expecting retirement to be like this, but (gestures).
*Which they really don't do, but...
In typical human fashion, we accuse lemmings of our own failings.
While true physical supply of oil has plateaued, debt based fiat currency has not. So that tells you that the equity markets are facades inflated by all these fiat currencies which have no where to go. Fake unbanked fiat currency = fake equities.
It does appear that way. I wonder if this is a product of algorithmic trading. I've been thinking about the quick responses to ceasefire news by the market and think that may be a factor.
Algorithmic trading? How about insider trading based on Taco?
One can't dedicate ALL their energy to research and writing--and engage in discussion too. That is, you never engage in conversations in the comments. Again, understandable. But you should recognize it makes you, unavoidable, a bit blind.
This is not true, in my experience. "Everyone admits that what we are going through is the biggest energy crisis in history, yet western governments, the media and heads of corporations act as if nothing’s happening."
I don't believe that's what most people believe, which you point out yourself in the essay. We believe it will "go away in a few months".
Even if it doesn't most people don't care. Why? The more you talk to people the more you'd understand that aspect of it.
Thank you. I really appreciate the time and effort you put into writing these. Your posts are the only ones I read every single time one lands in my inbox.
This is excellent news. Instead of intentionally cooperating in the destruction of the planet, Trump accidentally collapsed the global economy, thus saving the planet. Way To Go MAGA!
I've suggested elsewhere that given the US president's obsession with his legacy and naming things after himself, we have the Donald J Trump Global Recession.
Stephen J Newbury demurs, saying this belief is a common misconception which misreads American intentionality. He claims "the US went into this conflict knowing exactly what effect it would have on the essential flows through Hormuz. They did it anyway, gaming that the damage would be entirely fatal to their adversaries."
Newbury suggests that Trump & Co are well aware of resource and oil depletion and are proactively seeking to both destroy the competition (Eurasia) and shore up as much as they can for the US.
This argument is quite plausible in light of 1)Tariffs, 2) Venezuela and the threats to Cuba, Greenland, Canada etc which seem deliberately aimed at creating a 'super continent of America' which hogs as many resources as possible, while bankrupting everyone else.
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-brittle-fracture-arrives-why?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=7011593&post_id=196647956&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1byuzq&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Western culture is based on debt, greed and corruption. No thought of impact on the killing of innocents, the degradation of our planet, the loot and shoot to grab resources .And now we have AI and quantum compute to force the peasants to a life of slavery , while our assets are stripped. Reality has arrived to slap us in the face. Hard.
Amish culture is based on strong community, independent of energy, electronics and fuel. And they survive. They work the land, focus on trades that support their community needs and they trade their ego for humility.
When Jesus walked the earth, he wasn't a politician , a banker, an arms dealer . He was a teacher , a healer and sacrificed his life for us, too stupid to rip the veil of delusion from our face, our brain, our mind.
Slap. Slap. Slap.....
Interesting to see the '73 embargo given so much weight in "kickstarting" the industrial decline of the West. As tidy narratives go, I like it.
So whose brilliant idea was it to put the "Holy Land" in the same region as all these crucial resources, along with multiple narrow shipping chokepoints? That's a tidy story too!
You might be interested in this by John Peach, a key member of the Peak Oil Facebook group I am a member of:
https://www.wildpeaches.xyz/blog/2026-04-30-hormuz-closure
So I read the article, took an hour, very dense but well-written. It was mildly depressing, with many many caveats. Can't vouch for the calculus, been a while, I'm 85, BS Physics. But the real punch in the mental gut was the lead sentence in the conclusion: "This is the optimistic scenario." Thanks, I think...
A terrific paper. I was excited to find this declaration about being able to distinguish between conventional and biophysical economics:
"The neoclassical model predicts that crack spreads normalize within 6–12 months as supply chains adapt and substitution occurs. The biophysical model has an equally clear prediction: crack spreads remain elevated because the substitution is hardware-constrained and cannot occur on that timescale. These predictions are mutually exclusive and empirically distinguishable."
I have a long-running debate with an economics instructor about the limits to growth. Maybe this will become a counter-example to "substitution" and unlimited human resourcefulness.
Thanks, sorcerer. I'm not an economics theorist or financial pundit. I honestly have a hard time understanding certain financial concepts because my mind doesn't move in those directions. I don't want to smash someone economically or triumph in a skewed, corrupt market.
However, I have "forecasted" for myself so that I can prepared financially and make certain decisions in my life. E.g., I've decided to move ahead with certain household items I put on hold because I don't see those items returning in the near future once they're gone.
I saw the effects of the Covid shutdown quite clearly. Many supply routes never returned. The shelves in many stores were never stocked again to their full capacity. I.e., pull the front items off the shelves and nothing is behind them. Selection became more limited and of cheaper quality. Stores like Costco recovered offering new items, but I suspect their reach provides them opportunities most stores don't get.
I've noticed a marked deterioration of produce in Whole Food store. Markedly so. I no longer trust their produce.
From a simple consumer POV, I can well predict that what returns after this war will be meager and meager for years. My one hope is that local artisans and growers step up to fill new gap. I'm hoping more supply by more local routes.
The items needed in homes, once they return, will be cheaper than ever. Some won't be worth owning. I bought three lined flannel shirts for this last winter, and only one is worth keeping because the other two--made in China--were so poorly sewn. I'm buying now and won't be buying in future years. I'm on a limited retirement income and must make each purchase count.
Go to the thrift stores. Loads of good quality clothing for practically nothing.
I read the article and there's no objection: previous crises linked to various oil shocks have had long-term effects, and this latest war will only metaphorically add salt to the wound. It remains to be seen when this current one will end, given that the drums of war are already beating. A small note: there are some little-known aspects of previous oil crises that are not known to the general public, and some information can be found in Eric Laurent's book "La face cachee du petrole," published by Plon in 2006. P.S.: the financial aspect must also be considered, given the current situation and the debt crisis of various countries...
This post is along the lines of what I was envisioning for my next post, "Not Your Grandpappy's Oil Crisis, Part II - only much, much better than I could have done. A must read!
This is a credible analysis in my opinion. It doesn't overstate things, it simply points to today's situation and how it compares to past oil disruptions. That the current situation looks extremely bad by comparison is the inescapable conclusion.
I'm curious if you've seen this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw
One man's idea of how the Iran war fits into the MUCH bigger picture. Fascincating!
prepare to eat ze bugs 🐛
I suspect that israel and the ruling elite wants the world suffering and waring each other.
The same game plan they did in Syria and Iraq and Libia and ,, - except on a global scale.
Yes, we did most or all of those counties for israel, but you always complement the Master, never the servant.
Trump know - I don't think so. He seemed like it would be as easy as israel told him. They sacrificed him and moved the other party into power next elect.
You can't see how they will profit?
Bess you that, that's because you do see the suffering and the Demons sucking it up.
The suffering has color, and they are still rolling out of Hell on earth, israel.
Great article. When you say ‘shaping up to be a decade(s) long crisis’, global oil reserves have around 45 years before they are depleted at current reserve to consumption rate (1.8trn global reserves at 100mbpd). Does the deeper crisis not rest in this stark reality? There is no vast easy to access pool of oil left to find. Barely a major discovery this century. Regardless of Iran conflict, a supply ‘shock’ seems inevitable on a Decade(s) long time horizon. Welcome to be corrected if I’m missing something.
Yes, the Sorcerer agrees and has been saying so for years. You're just catching him in a little rhetorical slip there.
A recent article intro:
"Let me start by stating: the globalized world economy, unable to grow meaningfully for decades now, was on its deathbed already. ... Over the past decades we ran out of all the easy-to-get minerals, crude oil, wood, fish, topsoil etc., and what remained required a disproportionate increase in energy expenditure to get."