Excellent factual extrapolations - until the hopium "spiritual" and " ecotechnic" (spelling aside) windup.
You don't seem to want to confront the mass death and comprehensive ecological destruction your outlook portends.
What use will there be of overmassive hulks of steel like F-350s with restricted fuel supplies? What "spirituality" contends with the deaths of 3/4 of your family and friends? What animal is going to live in unlivable skyscrapers? What force can powerfully extract value from a thoroughly trashed and extinction-suffused planet?
Off topic, but.. search for something like: Louis D. Smullin was the first to bounce a laser beam off the moon using a telescope at Lincoln Laboratory in 1962.
*Earth systems critical to all life are on the verge of total collapse*
.
As global temperatures keep rising because of human activities like burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests, Earth is getting closer to critical points that could permanently disrupt its complex systems.
.
Our planet is in a dangerously precarious state. Pretending otherwise, or simply continuing to ignore the issue, definitely won’t make it go away. We’ve reached the point of no return, and no amount of denial will change that fact.
*The Scientific Case for NTHE (Near-Term Human Extinction): Reviewing the Evidence*
-Apr 6, 2024
.
Direct mortal effects of climate change include heat waves, which have already caused thousands of human deaths by a combination of heat and humidity (wet-bulb temperature >35°C, such that the human body is physically unable to cool itself with perspiration).
.
Intermediate causes of death (between direct and indirect) involve crop failures, droughts, flooding, extreme weather, wildfires, and rising seas.
.
Extinction is the complete disappearance of a species from Earth. The predominant cause of extinction is loss of habitat.
The risk of human extinction has been dangerously underexplored.
.
Table of Contents
.
Is near-term human extinction really possible?
How soon is “near-term”?
Is there any scientific research supporting the case for near-term human extinction?
The number of consequences and victims of runaway climate change mount daily.
~~~~~
*Jasper wildfire: Before-and-after photos show destruction of town*
.
A fierce wildfire has ravaged the town of Jasper, Alta., potentially destroying up to 50 per cent of its buildings. Among the losses are a historic church once attended by Queen Elizabeth II, a long-standing lodge and numerous residents’ homes reduced to ashes.
As firefighters continue their efforts Thursday to save as many buildings as possible, images and videos surfacing online have begun to reveal the full scale of the devastation.
The town and Jasper National Park, which draw more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday when officials estimated there were up to 10,000 people in the town and a further 15,000 visitors in the park.
*The Jasper fire highlights the risks climate change poses to Canada's world heritage sites*
.
"Climate change and extreme weather events pose a real risk to the world’s heritage sites — a stark reality laid bare by the recent wildfire in Jasper, Alta.
.
Canada has 22 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world heritage sites, most of which are at high risk of disruption due to climate change and their particularly vulnerable location.
.
The catastrophic wildfire to recently hit Jasper burned significant parts of Jasper National Park, which — along with Banff, Kootenay and Yoho — forms a part of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Parks."
"The Jasper wildfire indicates that Canada may be increasingly unable to fully protect its world heritage sites from wildfire — despite decades of accumulated knowledge as to the growing problems wildfires will pose in a warming world."
*About 3 million Americans are already "climate migrants," analysis finds. Here's where they left.*
.
"Climate change is already forcing millions of people around the world to leave their homes to seek refuge from the rising seas, devastating droughts and the other effects of global warming. But that migration is also happening within the U.S. as extreme weather makes parts of the country virtually inhospitable, according to a new analysis.
.
About 3.2 million Americans have moved due to the mounting risk of flooding, the First Street Foundation said in a report that focuses on so-called "climate abandonment areas," or locations where the local population fell between 2000 and 2020 because of risks linked to climate change.
*The Earth experienced its hottest day ever in July*
.
Experts say 2024 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record, in what is being called another yet sign of how global warming is changing the climate
“After the floods: ‘A catastrophic year’ on farms [UK].
“Farmers are counting the cost of the long, wet winter as they start to bring in record low harvests of grain… Throughout winter and spring many fields were waterlogged, crops that had been sown were lost and farmers couldn’t get onto fields to sow anything.”
At least as far back to 2017 climate research predicted bigger hail - NAILED IT!! that has come to pass and it is one of the most costly climate consequences. Hial size records have been smashed the world over.
..
June 2017 16:00
*Giant hailstones to increasingly strike North America under climate change*
.
"Damaging large hail “events” may become more common across the central and central-western parts of North America, concludes a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
The paper also finds that a warming climate will reduce the number of small hailstorms, as more hail melts prior to hitting the surface. However, the vast majority of hail damage comes from much rarer storms that feature large hailstones.
.
The changes to the climate across much of North America expected over the coming century will favour the formation of larger hail, the paper says.
.
Large hailstorms can be extremely damaging events. In 2016 alone, hail damage in northern Texas topped $5.5bn, with some hailstones the size of baseballs or larger.
“Dozens of flights cancelled after 16 WestJet planes damaged in Monday’s hailstorm [Calgary].
“Sixteen WestJet planes — 10 per cent of its entire fleet — have been grounded and require “substantial repairs and inspections before returning to service,” WestJet wrote in a Wednesday statement.”
*Hero pilot lands plane after hailstorm rips off aircraft’s nosecone mid-flight*
.
"An Austrian Airlines passenger jet suffered heavy damage flying through a hail storm, pictures have revealed.
.
The aircraft, an Airbus A320-200, had its nosecone smashed away and its cockpit windows left almost opaque when it was battered by hailstones, pictures show.
.
The pilots made a mayday call – an emergency broadcast to air traffic controllers – as a result of the damage, Austrian Airlines said."
.
"The pictures, taken at Vienna Airport, show that the radome, a composite fibre cover that protects the weather radar dish on the nose of the plane, was almost completely torn away.
That is but a sample of reported climate consequences and records, I've come across today. I could keep listing new ones all day and do the same thing tomorrow - all newly reported climate consequences and broken records. I don't normally do it anymore. Only when I feel like making a point.
.
If I'm wagering, I'll give the humans less than < 5% chance of making it out of this century.
I give global techno industrial civilization a less than < 10% chance of making it to 2050 even remotely intact.
.
Runaway climate change and the other Overshoot predicaments are going to drive millions of creatures to extinction within this century and humans will be likely be among them.
Fermi's Paradox list here we come....thanks for the memories dear Terra.
There is a LOT of slack that can be removed, before we hit extremis (Still inevitable, but slower). What would be the figures for ESSENTIAL uses of oil - in the diesel transports, food production etc - rather than Joe the Useless driving to Starbucks for a coffee, instead of making a nicer one at home (Which isn't advertised as much).
CONSIDERABLY lower, is my guess. People could also commute to work on public transport, rather than private vehicles - as rural Africans do on minibusses.
More people may take up cycling, more pleasant without the billions of cars to compete with.
I suspect that Europe is going to be the first to discover the bridled joys of "post-oil life", although sadly probably the second least most likely place to behead the oligarchs and ditch all the useless "Bullshit Jerbs" after the US itself during the transformation - at least, for a while.
Perhaps more concerning will be the reaction of said oligarchs to their loss of private wealth and privileges, many will choose to "Press the Big Red Button" than face up to that prospect, let aone the psychopaths in Israel and their Samson Option currently being the curent global spectre.
I don't agree. What you call 'slack' is merely a fundamental quality of our stupid oil-soaked infrastructure. Too late to drill train lines through suburbia; no room, no energy for that. Starbuck trips are just part of our daily commute and shopping trips (for necessities like food)
You seem to think “The Honest Sorcerer” that as Oil diminishes so will CO2, I don’t believe that will be the case for quite some time, as we’ll revert to burning more biomass (mainly forests) and more Coal, substituting Oil for Coal liquefaction, taking us back to the era of dark satanic mills whilst entering “The Great Simplification”, but no matter what it’ll end with a massive fall in global population, initially living a 17th century lifestyle, until humanity’s final mass extinction.
This is a frightening scenario, but like me those that have read your essay know there is nothing we can do to stop Oil from declining, after all it is finite, and we just love using and wasting its energy. Doomer or not, we all believe in hopium, deep ingrained hopium that this won’t happen in our lifetimes, for me that’s probably in the next 25 years, any offspring we’ve been responsible for bringing into this world, well best not think what will happen to them. I’ve read Stephen King’s “The Stand” and Cormac McCarthy’s “The Road” but the books that come closest to depicting the demise of Oil (I’d like to know of pertinent others) are Suzanne Weyn’s “Empty” and Kurt Dahl’s “An American Famine” Dahl’s book is truly frightening it’s half based on human psychology, past events, and half fiction🤔
Hi Barry. Maybe you should read the book "Mona" available on Amazon by Adam Flint. With a strong slant on a very likely fascist United States (if not in 2024 by votes or vote denials, then later). Famine is part of this future, of course, realistically, and as always in history, the leading class doesn't suffer from it.
In Kurt Dahl’s book “An American Famine” there’s little regarding politics, the story starts with some some historic and recent time examples of what people do when they’re starving, it then moves to a time when Oil (Gas) supplies are no longer dependable and the delivery trucks stop running. I’m not going to give too much away but Dahl’s story doesn’t discriminate in what happens to the average citizen or elites, they all suffer equally. If you’ve not read it get yourself a copy and if you have maybe read it again, I’ve read it three times just to remind myself how bad things can get very quickly🤔
No, I haven't read the books you mention, but I will. I believe (I am sure actually) that fiction-literary fiction or cinema-can best convey the essential issues of our time. Not that I dismiss dissertations like the ones of "B"; they are on point and necessary, but one is not exclusive of the other. Fiction can bring the understanding of the heart.
About the equal or unequal share of pain and death with famines, what ALWAYS happened in history, and there were famines everywhere many times, the elites never suffered from famines but common people. And there is no reason to believe that this will not happen the same way, at least as long as some possibility of survival will remain. Power is ALWAYS a fundamental factor to consider, and power in a dwindling world is a lot more important for survival. This is one of the axes of the book, Mona; this prospective fiction must take its roots in our reality, of the human heart, the human society (in the U.S.), and the physical realities of the world.
Some countries have already gone through and abrupt transition to a low energy economy. Cuba in the 70’s, there is a good doco on it. Everyone started growing food everywhere, making compost.
I used to have hope that once the Boomers all die, there would be "an oversupply of homes stocks and bonds", as you say, and Gen Xers like me could finally have a house. But now I think that our elites are determined to continue mass immigration at such absurd levels that house prices will continue to rise dramatically through the next 50 years. Moreover, the government will continue to provide free houses and apartments to refugees and illegal migrants during that time, and whatever houses they aren't given will be bought by wealthy Chinese. So I think house prices are not in a bubble at all--they're quite cheap now, and there will not be a better time to buy this century.
I think that after peak oil, those of us who work will have a dramatically lower standard of living--like my farmer ancestors circa 1920--but mass immigration will not slow down and the immigrants will be able to maintain 1980 standards of living. Our elites will not allow their pets to bear the brunt of declining oil supplies; white people in formerly white countries will have to work harder to make up for it.
Another great post, B. Two things I've been thinking about but so far have not found an answer:
1. How will the oil scarcity be allocated? We might think food production will be prioritized but who will be doing the prioritizing? It's impossible for me to imagine the "free market" doing so in a responsible fashion. That leaves the government and the nationalization of oil production and control over imports. As I've read, no one really knows what the back side of the collapse curve looks like.
2. What accounts for the ongoing *rise* in pollution after all the other LTG metrics have peaked? I guess if I read the book, I could find out. In any case, this trend line does not comport with the inevitable reduction in oil use. Perhaps it reflects a reversion to coal and wood?
Speaking of "the false definition of “oil”, in a 2012 article, Kurt Cobb explains how the oily Corporate & Gov PTB changed the definition of crude oil to include things like BIC Lighter fluid and other low grade horse piss.
Sunday, July 08, 2012
**How changing the definition of oil has deceived both policymakers and the public**
"Everyone knows that world oil production has been running between 88 and 89 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year because government, industry and media sources tell us so. As it turns out, what everyone knows is wrong.
.
It's wrong not because the range quoted above can't be found in official sources. It's wrong because the numbers include things which are not oil such as natural gas plant liquids and biofuels. If you strip these other things out, then world oil production has been running around 75 mbpd this year. The main thing you need to know about the worldwide rate of production of crude oil alone is that it has been stuck between 71 and 75 mbpd since 2005 (calculated on a monthly basis). And, that has already had huge negative effects on the world economy and world society through high energy prices that are partly responsible for our current economic stagnation.
.
But because natural gas plant liquids production has been growing rather rapidly due to recent intensive drilling for natural gas and because those liquids are misleadingly lumped in with oil supplies, people have been mistakenly given the impression that world oil production continues to grow. Not true! What's growing is a category called "total liquids" which encompasses oil, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels and some other minor fuels. Total liquids are growing only because of large gains in natural gas plant liquids and minor gains in biofuels. And, this is why it is so important to understand what natural gas plant liquids are.
.
But first, an important question. Why do government and industry officials, oil analysts, and energy reporters equate total liquids and total oil supply? They claim that these other liquids are essentially interchangeable with oil. (I will discuss some of the not-so-savory motives behind this claim later.) In a recent report the U.S. Energy Information Administration put it this way: "The term 'liquid fuels' encompasses petroleum and petroleum products and close substitutes, including crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and refinery processing gains." Let's see why the "close substitutes" assumption is demonstrably false when it comes to most natural gas plant liquids and decidedly disingenuous when it comes to biofuels.
Excellent factual extrapolations - until the hopium "spiritual" and " ecotechnic" (spelling aside) windup.
You don't seem to want to confront the mass death and comprehensive ecological destruction your outlook portends.
What use will there be of overmassive hulks of steel like F-350s with restricted fuel supplies? What "spirituality" contends with the deaths of 3/4 of your family and friends? What animal is going to live in unlivable skyscrapers? What force can powerfully extract value from a thoroughly trashed and extinction-suffused planet?
I think,you are taking his last paras literally rather than figuratively.
hahaha... it's not the end of the world.
Yes it is.
In some ways it will be and it will be tragic but still it is not the end of the world.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Off topic, but.. search for something like: Louis D. Smullin was the first to bounce a laser beam off the moon using a telescope at Lincoln Laboratory in 1962.
No Eddy, it's not TEOTWAWKI (regardless of what the Climate Catastrophiles might have us believe). Just the blessed demise of Schizurbia.
Tell yourself.......
~~~~~~
08-07-2024
.
*Earth systems critical to all life are on the verge of total collapse*
.
As global temperatures keep rising because of human activities like burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests, Earth is getting closer to critical points that could permanently disrupt its complex systems.
.
Our planet is in a dangerously precarious state. Pretending otherwise, or simply continuing to ignore the issue, definitely won’t make it go away. We’ve reached the point of no return, and no amount of denial will change that fact.
Now or never for Earth systems
.
https://www.earth.com/news/earth-systems-critical-all-life-on-verge-total-collapse-paris-agreement/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.
*The Scientific Case for NTHE (Near-Term Human Extinction): Reviewing the Evidence*
-Apr 6, 2024
.
Direct mortal effects of climate change include heat waves, which have already caused thousands of human deaths by a combination of heat and humidity (wet-bulb temperature >35°C, such that the human body is physically unable to cool itself with perspiration).
.
Intermediate causes of death (between direct and indirect) involve crop failures, droughts, flooding, extreme weather, wildfires, and rising seas.
.
Extinction is the complete disappearance of a species from Earth. The predominant cause of extinction is loss of habitat.
The risk of human extinction has been dangerously underexplored.
.
Table of Contents
.
Is near-term human extinction really possible?
How soon is “near-term”?
Is there any scientific research supporting the case for near-term human extinction?
Where we are — a snapshot
Sudden events likely to cause human extinction
Scientists’ final warnings fall on deaf ears
Afterword
.
https://medium.com/@kconne/the-scientific-case-for-near-term-human-extinction-nthe-reviewing-the-evidence-2e5b8a12da26
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The number of consequences and victims of runaway climate change mount daily.
~~~~~
*Jasper wildfire: Before-and-after photos show destruction of town*
.
A fierce wildfire has ravaged the town of Jasper, Alta., potentially destroying up to 50 per cent of its buildings. Among the losses are a historic church once attended by Queen Elizabeth II, a long-standing lodge and numerous residents’ homes reduced to ashes.
As firefighters continue their efforts Thursday to save as many buildings as possible, images and videos surfacing online have begun to reveal the full scale of the devastation.
The town and Jasper National Park, which draw more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday when officials estimated there were up to 10,000 people in the town and a further 15,000 visitors in the park.
.
*https://globalnews.ca/news/10645068/jasper-wildfire-before-and-after-pictures-destruction/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.
*The Jasper fire highlights the risks climate change poses to Canada's world heritage sites*
.
"Climate change and extreme weather events pose a real risk to the world’s heritage sites — a stark reality laid bare by the recent wildfire in Jasper, Alta.
.
Canada has 22 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world heritage sites, most of which are at high risk of disruption due to climate change and their particularly vulnerable location.
.
The catastrophic wildfire to recently hit Jasper burned significant parts of Jasper National Park, which — along with Banff, Kootenay and Yoho — forms a part of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Parks."
"The Jasper wildfire indicates that Canada may be increasingly unable to fully protect its world heritage sites from wildfire — despite decades of accumulated knowledge as to the growing problems wildfires will pose in a warming world."
.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/the-jasper-fire-highlights-the-risks-climate-change-poses-to-canadas-world-heritage-sites/
~~~~~~~~
*About 3 million Americans are already "climate migrants," analysis finds. Here's where they left.*
.
"Climate change is already forcing millions of people around the world to leave their homes to seek refuge from the rising seas, devastating droughts and the other effects of global warming. But that migration is also happening within the U.S. as extreme weather makes parts of the country virtually inhospitable, according to a new analysis.
.
About 3.2 million Americans have moved due to the mounting risk of flooding, the First Street Foundation said in a report that focuses on so-called "climate abandonment areas," or locations where the local population fell between 2000 and 2020 because of risks linked to climate change.
.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-america-3-million-migrants-first-street-nature/
~~~~~~~~~
*The Earth experienced its hottest day ever in July*
.
Experts say 2024 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record, in what is being called another yet sign of how global warming is changing the climate
.
https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-08-08/the-earth-experienced-its-hottest-day-ever-in-july.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*Debby drenched the southeast: Climate change is making storms like this even wetter*
.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/debby-drenched-southeast-climate-change-155553864.html?guccounter=1
.
*Florida's Biggest Insurer Says It Needs to Increase Rates by 93 Percent*
.
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388
~~~~~~~~~~~~
“After the floods: ‘A catastrophic year’ on farms [UK].
“Farmers are counting the cost of the long, wet winter as they start to bring in record low harvests of grain… Throughout winter and spring many fields were waterlogged, crops that had been sown were lost and farmers couldn’t get onto fields to sow anything.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rdlpvzvpqo
~~~~~~~~~~~
“EXCEPTIONAL 97F/36C IN THE ARCTIC… ALL TIME RECORDS:
“CANADA: 35.9 [96.6F] Little Chicago; 34.5 Inuvik; 34.6 Fort McPherson; 33 Trail Valley; TMIN 18.0 Ivvavik Park; ALASKA 89F [31.7C] Deadhorse; 86 Kuparuk; 88 Nuiqsut; 87 Franklin Bluff; TMIN 71 Delta Junction.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1821344818800316438
~~~~~~~~~~
At least as far back to 2017 climate research predicted bigger hail - NAILED IT!! that has come to pass and it is one of the most costly climate consequences. Hial size records have been smashed the world over.
..
June 2017 16:00
*Giant hailstones to increasingly strike North America under climate change*
.
"Damaging large hail “events” may become more common across the central and central-western parts of North America, concludes a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
The paper also finds that a warming climate will reduce the number of small hailstorms, as more hail melts prior to hitting the surface. However, the vast majority of hail damage comes from much rarer storms that feature large hailstones.
.
The changes to the climate across much of North America expected over the coming century will favour the formation of larger hail, the paper says.
.
Large hailstorms can be extremely damaging events. In 2016 alone, hail damage in northern Texas topped $5.5bn, with some hailstones the size of baseballs or larger.
.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/giant-hailstones-to-increasingly-strike-north-america-under-climate-change/
.
“Dozens of flights cancelled after 16 WestJet planes damaged in Monday’s hailstorm [Calgary].
“Sixteen WestJet planes — 10 per cent of its entire fleet — have been grounded and require “substantial repairs and inspections before returning to service,” WestJet wrote in a Wednesday statement.”
https://calgaryherald.com/news/calgary-international-airport-delays-cancellations-hail-storm-damage
................
Record-breaking hailstone found in central Alberta
https://globalnews.ca/news/9035746/record-breaking-hailstone-found-central-alberta/
...................
*Massive hail strikes southern Alberta Monday, causes major damage*
.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/in-photos-massive-hail-strikes-southern-alberta-monday-causes-major-damage
~~~~~~~~~
*Hero pilot lands plane after hailstorm rips off aircraft’s nosecone mid-flight*
.
"An Austrian Airlines passenger jet suffered heavy damage flying through a hail storm, pictures have revealed.
.
The aircraft, an Airbus A320-200, had its nosecone smashed away and its cockpit windows left almost opaque when it was battered by hailstones, pictures show.
.
The pilots made a mayday call – an emergency broadcast to air traffic controllers – as a result of the damage, Austrian Airlines said."
.
"The pictures, taken at Vienna Airport, show that the radome, a composite fibre cover that protects the weather radar dish on the nose of the plane, was almost completely torn away.
.
The hail also badly damaged the pilots’ windows"
.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/pictured-passenger-jet-loses-nosecone-122634200.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That is but a sample of reported climate consequences and records, I've come across today. I could keep listing new ones all day and do the same thing tomorrow - all newly reported climate consequences and broken records. I don't normally do it anymore. Only when I feel like making a point.
.
If I'm wagering, I'll give the humans less than < 5% chance of making it out of this century.
I give global techno industrial civilization a less than < 10% chance of making it to 2050 even remotely intact.
.
Runaway climate change and the other Overshoot predicaments are going to drive millions of creatures to extinction within this century and humans will be likely be among them.
Fermi's Paradox list here we come....thanks for the memories dear Terra.
You may have seen 'this'?
https://climateandeconomy.com/
“ . . . it is these ocean state changes that are
1:02:28 correlated with the great disasters of the past impact can cause extinction but
1:02:35 it did so in our past only wants[once] that we can tell whereas this has happened over
1:02:40 and over and over again we have fifteen evidences times of mass extinction in the past 500 million years
1:02:48 so the implications for the implications the implications of the carbon dioxide is really dangerous if you heat your
1:02:55 planet sufficiently to cause your Arctic to melt if you cause the temperature
1:03:01 gradient between your tropics and your Arctic to be reduced you risk going back
1:03:07 to a state that produces these hydrogen sulfide pulses . . . “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ako03Bjxv70
Great essay
Great article. The faster people ahead of the curve simplify and move small-town/semi-rural, the better equipped they’ll be for a low-energy future
A brilliant, critical summary of our peak-oil plight. It's all here folks, the doom in black and white, the doom in bits and bytes.
There is a LOT of slack that can be removed, before we hit extremis (Still inevitable, but slower). What would be the figures for ESSENTIAL uses of oil - in the diesel transports, food production etc - rather than Joe the Useless driving to Starbucks for a coffee, instead of making a nicer one at home (Which isn't advertised as much).
CONSIDERABLY lower, is my guess. People could also commute to work on public transport, rather than private vehicles - as rural Africans do on minibusses.
More people may take up cycling, more pleasant without the billions of cars to compete with.
I suspect that Europe is going to be the first to discover the bridled joys of "post-oil life", although sadly probably the second least most likely place to behead the oligarchs and ditch all the useless "Bullshit Jerbs" after the US itself during the transformation - at least, for a while.
Perhaps more concerning will be the reaction of said oligarchs to their loss of private wealth and privileges, many will choose to "Press the Big Red Button" than face up to that prospect, let aone the psychopaths in Israel and their Samson Option currently being the curent global spectre.
I don't agree. What you call 'slack' is merely a fundamental quality of our stupid oil-soaked infrastructure. Too late to drill train lines through suburbia; no room, no energy for that. Starbuck trips are just part of our daily commute and shopping trips (for necessities like food)
Oh, America, Peter. I was referencing the civilised parts of the world. :P
Still, even in 'merica, minibusses will be picking up the slack as personal cars become too expensive.
You seem to think “The Honest Sorcerer” that as Oil diminishes so will CO2, I don’t believe that will be the case for quite some time, as we’ll revert to burning more biomass (mainly forests) and more Coal, substituting Oil for Coal liquefaction, taking us back to the era of dark satanic mills whilst entering “The Great Simplification”, but no matter what it’ll end with a massive fall in global population, initially living a 17th century lifestyle, until humanity’s final mass extinction.
This is a frightening scenario, but like me those that have read your essay know there is nothing we can do to stop Oil from declining, after all it is finite, and we just love using and wasting its energy. Doomer or not, we all believe in hopium, deep ingrained hopium that this won’t happen in our lifetimes, for me that’s probably in the next 25 years, any offspring we’ve been responsible for bringing into this world, well best not think what will happen to them. I’ve read Stephen King’s “The Stand” and Cormac McCarthy’s “The Road” but the books that come closest to depicting the demise of Oil (I’d like to know of pertinent others) are Suzanne Weyn’s “Empty” and Kurt Dahl’s “An American Famine” Dahl’s book is truly frightening it’s half based on human psychology, past events, and half fiction🤔
Hi Barry. Maybe you should read the book "Mona" available on Amazon by Adam Flint. With a strong slant on a very likely fascist United States (if not in 2024 by votes or vote denials, then later). Famine is part of this future, of course, realistically, and as always in history, the leading class doesn't suffer from it.
In Kurt Dahl’s book “An American Famine” there’s little regarding politics, the story starts with some some historic and recent time examples of what people do when they’re starving, it then moves to a time when Oil (Gas) supplies are no longer dependable and the delivery trucks stop running. I’m not going to give too much away but Dahl’s story doesn’t discriminate in what happens to the average citizen or elites, they all suffer equally. If you’ve not read it get yourself a copy and if you have maybe read it again, I’ve read it three times just to remind myself how bad things can get very quickly🤔
Hi, Barry.
No, I haven't read the books you mention, but I will. I believe (I am sure actually) that fiction-literary fiction or cinema-can best convey the essential issues of our time. Not that I dismiss dissertations like the ones of "B"; they are on point and necessary, but one is not exclusive of the other. Fiction can bring the understanding of the heart.
About the equal or unequal share of pain and death with famines, what ALWAYS happened in history, and there were famines everywhere many times, the elites never suffered from famines but common people. And there is no reason to believe that this will not happen the same way, at least as long as some possibility of survival will remain. Power is ALWAYS a fundamental factor to consider, and power in a dwindling world is a lot more important for survival. This is one of the axes of the book, Mona; this prospective fiction must take its roots in our reality, of the human heart, the human society (in the U.S.), and the physical realities of the world.
Some countries have already gone through and abrupt transition to a low energy economy. Cuba in the 70’s, there is a good doco on it. Everyone started growing food everywhere, making compost.
Libya would be a more recent example.
One other question is that during this tapering out period, countries will stockpile if they can afford to. That might hasten the end of oil trading.
I used to have hope that once the Boomers all die, there would be "an oversupply of homes stocks and bonds", as you say, and Gen Xers like me could finally have a house. But now I think that our elites are determined to continue mass immigration at such absurd levels that house prices will continue to rise dramatically through the next 50 years. Moreover, the government will continue to provide free houses and apartments to refugees and illegal migrants during that time, and whatever houses they aren't given will be bought by wealthy Chinese. So I think house prices are not in a bubble at all--they're quite cheap now, and there will not be a better time to buy this century.
I think that after peak oil, those of us who work will have a dramatically lower standard of living--like my farmer ancestors circa 1920--but mass immigration will not slow down and the immigrants will be able to maintain 1980 standards of living. Our elites will not allow their pets to bear the brunt of declining oil supplies; white people in formerly white countries will have to work harder to make up for it.
Meanwhile
Miracle!!!!
Let's take a look at Donald Trump's Ear
Seemingly No Injury...
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/lets-take-a-look-at-donald-trumps
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Thank you B🙏
Another great post, B. Two things I've been thinking about but so far have not found an answer:
1. How will the oil scarcity be allocated? We might think food production will be prioritized but who will be doing the prioritizing? It's impossible for me to imagine the "free market" doing so in a responsible fashion. That leaves the government and the nationalization of oil production and control over imports. As I've read, no one really knows what the back side of the collapse curve looks like.
2. What accounts for the ongoing *rise* in pollution after all the other LTG metrics have peaked? I guess if I read the book, I could find out. In any case, this trend line does not comport with the inevitable reduction in oil use. Perhaps it reflects a reversion to coal and wood?
Speaking of "the false definition of “oil”, in a 2012 article, Kurt Cobb explains how the oily Corporate & Gov PTB changed the definition of crude oil to include things like BIC Lighter fluid and other low grade horse piss.
Sunday, July 08, 2012
**How changing the definition of oil has deceived both policymakers and the public**
"Everyone knows that world oil production has been running between 88 and 89 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year because government, industry and media sources tell us so. As it turns out, what everyone knows is wrong.
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It's wrong not because the range quoted above can't be found in official sources. It's wrong because the numbers include things which are not oil such as natural gas plant liquids and biofuels. If you strip these other things out, then world oil production has been running around 75 mbpd this year. The main thing you need to know about the worldwide rate of production of crude oil alone is that it has been stuck between 71 and 75 mbpd since 2005 (calculated on a monthly basis). And, that has already had huge negative effects on the world economy and world society through high energy prices that are partly responsible for our current economic stagnation.
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But because natural gas plant liquids production has been growing rather rapidly due to recent intensive drilling for natural gas and because those liquids are misleadingly lumped in with oil supplies, people have been mistakenly given the impression that world oil production continues to grow. Not true! What's growing is a category called "total liquids" which encompasses oil, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels and some other minor fuels. Total liquids are growing only because of large gains in natural gas plant liquids and minor gains in biofuels. And, this is why it is so important to understand what natural gas plant liquids are.
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But first, an important question. Why do government and industry officials, oil analysts, and energy reporters equate total liquids and total oil supply? They claim that these other liquids are essentially interchangeable with oil. (I will discuss some of the not-so-savory motives behind this claim later.) In a recent report the U.S. Energy Information Administration put it this way: "The term 'liquid fuels' encompasses petroleum and petroleum products and close substitutes, including crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and refinery processing gains." Let's see why the "close substitutes" assumption is demonstrably false when it comes to most natural gas plant liquids and decidedly disingenuous when it comes to biofuels.
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https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-changing-definition-of-oil-has.html
"However, as Kurt Cobb explains, there were unexplained massive one-year jumps in oil reserves of major OPEC producers in the 1980s"
Can't remember where, but I have read that this is a result of a change in OPEC production quota rules.
During this time OPEC went from production quotas based on past performance, to determining production quota based on reserves.
Needless to say, every OPEC nation instantly doubled their reserves, so they could pump more!
"I need to remind my readers about another peer reviewed study examining the amount of energy needed to be re-invested into continuing drilling"
Damn. Paywalled by Elsevier… has anyone found a free copy of this paper?
Found it: https://hal.science/hal-03360253/document