The thing that keeps hitting me is..... we can still have 80% of our technological society, at 20% of the cost. Small 3D printed homes (perhaps shaped like beehives), with 2 PSI water systems, and 12 Volt electrical. A little woodstove for hot water, and a cooking top. The TV could run from an inverter. That sort of thing.
Cars (1/10th the weight of what we commonly have now) could be electric, limited to 35 kph and 50km range... (but easily rechargeable from solar panels) ... perhaps built like Sinclair (ZX 81) suggested. Slow enough that it could self drive (or generally follow a metallic painted line), and not be too dangerous to others.
We have the wireless internet for work and entertainment which should be reasonably inexpensive to maintain... especially it it slows down a bit. Why are we not building a step down solution which anticipates a lower energy future?
In Canada, it is no longer possible to build a modern home for the price of conforming to regulations. That right there screams.... its time to try new things. Everything could be so much more enjoyable... with locally fabricated as much as possible... things. Almost everything substantial could be fabricated with 3D Printers, C&C laser metal cutters, and repurposed components provided by the last 50 years or so.
Perhaps a 25 hour work week would become the norm, so that more time could be spent throwing a ball around, and learning localism skills (building, gardening, beer etc).
Honest Sorcerer's pieces always remind me of the habitual Eeyore-like (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eeyore) perspective of a usually very tired old veterinarian we used to know. Generally, that vet predicted the worst outcome of many of his patients. Generally, his patients did much better than he expected.
Like you say, making do with much less is a largely unexplored frontier of activity in these modern times, but is something most, if not all, people have an innate (but usually dormant) talent for doing. This being the case, "...having a [centralized] plan" is probably not at all necessary.
We will probably take such steps - but not based on „we should / could / must“. They are obvious but will occur only after the fact, involuntarily, by sheer necessity. Not because they‘re a logical step now, no. Now the System will run its course until „The Machine Stops“ (great little visionary book, btw).
B says: "This American power grab, dubbed as Energy Dominance, is therefore more of a sign of sheer desperation and shortsightedness—motivated by selfish interests and pushed forward in an administration which has completely severed its ties with reality—than a coherent plan. In other words it’s madness."
This is what Emmanuel Todd called American Nihilism. He is absolutely correct. But don't forget Israeli Nihilism. Together, these two forces doom ALL those invested in the System. Detach as much as you can.
The oil market is being deliberately depressed for political reasons. You can probably guess who is doing that. We're within weeks of "tank bottom," when reserves run out. Very little oil is getting out via pipelines. Storage is running out in the Gulf. The C-suite execs of Exxon Mobil and Chevron have said all of this in public on news programs. If/when that happens, we suddenly will be ~18% short worldwide. It will shatter the world economy unless wiser minds and cooler tempers prevail.
El primer paso para restablecer una posibilidad de mantener la vida humana en la tierra será “hacer caer” la población de los individuos de la especie a más de la mitad (según cálculos de los Meadows en su famoso informe).
Cómo lo haremos?
Me temo que no nos va a gustar y será horrible y nosotros lo veremos.
Lo bueno es que será rápido. De hecho ya están en ello.
Espero que los que queden vivan en armonía con la naturaleza.
Aunque, me temo que volveremos a tropezar otra ve en la misma piedra. Pero eso ya son historias para dentro de mucho tiempo.
And so here we are, retreating from near-term doom, getting back to the basics of long-term doom. Brent is at $72 as I type, even though the IRGC actually fired at a ship in strait yesterday. Nothing can dint the optimism.
The sorcerer's explanation for our near-term doomlessness is a mainstream explanation this time: that China had the reserves, plus the willingness to absorb demand destruction, to save the world economy.
I for one have not yet given up on this being a moment of maximum delusion and insanity, the calm before the real storm hits. But I'll admit to some doubt.
No diesel…. No food, no mining, no electricity, no renewables, no nuclear power stations, no transport, No modern civilisation. At current rates of extraction there's about 50 years of diesel left. How old are your children or grandchildren?
LiWe are already witnessing an intensification of conflicts and tensions.
How likely is "It means seeking ways to live a more fulfilling way of life, one not centered around chasing profits and limitless growth, but one which is aimed at finding the balance between what’s still possible and what needs to be done to ensure a peaceful transition into a future of less consumption and more connection".
Such calls for restraint and frugality have been voiced in the thousands since the first realized that infinite growth on a finite planet looked highly improbable (just not to say impossible).
The exact opposite happened.
The end of this essay looks like a desperate attempt to close on a positive note trying to paint blue what the dooming 98% of it conveys.
Yes, frugality and simpler lives will be forced upon us by necessity, not because we choose so. But I have a hard time believing some kind of enlightened regeneration mindset suddenly takes over, as so many good-thinkers (bless them) foresee, suggesting a shift in society comparable to an unlikely spiritual mass awakening.
The likelier unfolding is most probably different, and I am sure everyone who made it to the end can get its main flavor.
We stumbled upon an incredible source of energy. We could have smartly invested it in an harmonious future, instead we got greedy. Teenager attitude, I want it all, I want it now.
We further confused our luck for intelligence. Usually bad for business.
Whatever we choose to do with energy will always follow consciousness, that is an immutable law of nature.
As long as our consciousness is driven by fear, we will reproduce the same outcomes.
When/if we finally understand who we are and our place in the universe, fear would eventually recede and trust can be built instead.
When/if consciousness follow this new path, we will create a different future. Not before.
I think it is an incredible show we are watching, it dwarf Lord of the Ring or GOT by a long mile. The difference now is that we have skin in the game.
Correct, we will have a smaller but better World in a hundred years...And "renewables" are net consumers of energy, not producers, but politicians mostly don't do math...As a physicist I know said, the only real Winner was having a southern exposure in a northern climate.....
I always appreciate these overview entries.
The thing that keeps hitting me is..... we can still have 80% of our technological society, at 20% of the cost. Small 3D printed homes (perhaps shaped like beehives), with 2 PSI water systems, and 12 Volt electrical. A little woodstove for hot water, and a cooking top. The TV could run from an inverter. That sort of thing.
Cars (1/10th the weight of what we commonly have now) could be electric, limited to 35 kph and 50km range... (but easily rechargeable from solar panels) ... perhaps built like Sinclair (ZX 81) suggested. Slow enough that it could self drive (or generally follow a metallic painted line), and not be too dangerous to others.
We have the wireless internet for work and entertainment which should be reasonably inexpensive to maintain... especially it it slows down a bit. Why are we not building a step down solution which anticipates a lower energy future?
In Canada, it is no longer possible to build a modern home for the price of conforming to regulations. That right there screams.... its time to try new things. Everything could be so much more enjoyable... with locally fabricated as much as possible... things. Almost everything substantial could be fabricated with 3D Printers, C&C laser metal cutters, and repurposed components provided by the last 50 years or so.
Perhaps a 25 hour work week would become the norm, so that more time could be spent throwing a ball around, and learning localism skills (building, gardening, beer etc).
Honest Sorcerer's pieces always remind me of the habitual Eeyore-like (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eeyore) perspective of a usually very tired old veterinarian we used to know. Generally, that vet predicted the worst outcome of many of his patients. Generally, his patients did much better than he expected.
Like you say, making do with much less is a largely unexplored frontier of activity in these modern times, but is something most, if not all, people have an innate (but usually dormant) talent for doing. This being the case, "...having a [centralized] plan" is probably not at all necessary.
We will probably take such steps - but not based on „we should / could / must“. They are obvious but will occur only after the fact, involuntarily, by sheer necessity. Not because they‘re a logical step now, no. Now the System will run its course until „The Machine Stops“ (great little visionary book, btw).
B says: "This American power grab, dubbed as Energy Dominance, is therefore more of a sign of sheer desperation and shortsightedness—motivated by selfish interests and pushed forward in an administration which has completely severed its ties with reality—than a coherent plan. In other words it’s madness."
This is what Emmanuel Todd called American Nihilism. He is absolutely correct. But don't forget Israeli Nihilism. Together, these two forces doom ALL those invested in the System. Detach as much as you can.
I am pleased to see that your crystal ball is only one year farther away than net zero.
The oil market is being deliberately depressed for political reasons. You can probably guess who is doing that. We're within weeks of "tank bottom," when reserves run out. Very little oil is getting out via pipelines. Storage is running out in the Gulf. The C-suite execs of Exxon Mobil and Chevron have said all of this in public on news programs. If/when that happens, we suddenly will be ~18% short worldwide. It will shatter the world economy unless wiser minds and cooler tempers prevail.
El primer paso para restablecer una posibilidad de mantener la vida humana en la tierra será “hacer caer” la población de los individuos de la especie a más de la mitad (según cálculos de los Meadows en su famoso informe).
Cómo lo haremos?
Me temo que no nos va a gustar y será horrible y nosotros lo veremos.
Lo bueno es que será rápido. De hecho ya están en ello.
Espero que los que queden vivan en armonía con la naturaleza.
Aunque, me temo que volveremos a tropezar otra ve en la misma piedra. Pero eso ya son historias para dentro de mucho tiempo.
En fin, seguimos.
And so here we are, retreating from near-term doom, getting back to the basics of long-term doom. Brent is at $72 as I type, even though the IRGC actually fired at a ship in strait yesterday. Nothing can dint the optimism.
The sorcerer's explanation for our near-term doomlessness is a mainstream explanation this time: that China had the reserves, plus the willingness to absorb demand destruction, to save the world economy.
I for one have not yet given up on this being a moment of maximum delusion and insanity, the calm before the real storm hits. But I'll admit to some doubt.
A-men 🙏
No diesel…. No food, no mining, no electricity, no renewables, no nuclear power stations, no transport, No modern civilisation. At current rates of extraction there's about 50 years of diesel left. How old are your children or grandchildren?
Honest and sobering. John Michael Greer's book, RetroTopia is on my mind.
Thanks B.
Damn, that was so comprehensive and well researched that the final esoteric wekito drop went unexpectedly hard
LiWe are already witnessing an intensification of conflicts and tensions.
How likely is "It means seeking ways to live a more fulfilling way of life, one not centered around chasing profits and limitless growth, but one which is aimed at finding the balance between what’s still possible and what needs to be done to ensure a peaceful transition into a future of less consumption and more connection".
Such calls for restraint and frugality have been voiced in the thousands since the first realized that infinite growth on a finite planet looked highly improbable (just not to say impossible).
The exact opposite happened.
The end of this essay looks like a desperate attempt to close on a positive note trying to paint blue what the dooming 98% of it conveys.
Yes, frugality and simpler lives will be forced upon us by necessity, not because we choose so. But I have a hard time believing some kind of enlightened regeneration mindset suddenly takes over, as so many good-thinkers (bless them) foresee, suggesting a shift in society comparable to an unlikely spiritual mass awakening.
The likelier unfolding is most probably different, and I am sure everyone who made it to the end can get its main flavor.
Energy goes where consciousness goes.
We stumbled upon an incredible source of energy. We could have smartly invested it in an harmonious future, instead we got greedy. Teenager attitude, I want it all, I want it now.
We further confused our luck for intelligence. Usually bad for business.
Whatever we choose to do with energy will always follow consciousness, that is an immutable law of nature.
As long as our consciousness is driven by fear, we will reproduce the same outcomes.
When/if we finally understand who we are and our place in the universe, fear would eventually recede and trust can be built instead.
When/if consciousness follow this new path, we will create a different future. Not before.
I think it is an incredible show we are watching, it dwarf Lord of the Ring or GOT by a long mile. The difference now is that we have skin in the game.
Love
Correct, we will have a smaller but better World in a hundred years...And "renewables" are net consumers of energy, not producers, but politicians mostly don't do math...As a physicist I know said, the only real Winner was having a southern exposure in a northern climate.....