This is a "new" field of study, one of the rare new fields of science.
The funny part, is this one studies the evolution of societies, similar to Tainter, but with much more info on macro data.
Of course, it predicts the demise of the current occidental society.
By 2010 it predicted the rise of Trumpism, as an example, when nobody believed it would happen. It was the most accurate prediction ot certain magazine.
Same with sports.... the world 100m sprint record has held for 15 years... training for all pro sports is highly specialized and begins very young... we likely are at a peak in performance across all sports...
It was you who finally convinced me to watch it. Its.... fascinating. After that, Wagging the Moon Doggie was a great follow up. Jarrad White and Aulis are great places to continue the research
Here is a short teaser for those who prefer to remain in ignorance and not watch American Moon...
A NASA engineer states that they are trying to build a craft that can safely transport man and machine through the deadly Van Allen Belts ... rather odd given that contraption from the 60's already did it...
Peak energy, complexity that cannot be fully comprehended by the individual components of the phenomenon, and biosphere overshoot—what could go wrong? You have written an excellent summary of our predicament.
The bit about physicists surprised me, but I guess it shouldn't have!
When Shakespeare's plays were first performed, they didn't need a script for every actor, and producing that many scripts would have been too time-consuming. So actors would read the script once and know their parts. The same with audiences: they'd go home from Romeo and Juliet able to repeat vast stretches of dialogue and the monologues. The thing that changed that: printing presses able to cheaply produce books and plays.
It's the same with all technology, starting with shoes and the wheel (but probably excluding fire). It just makes us weaker. Wear shoes long enough and you won't be able to go barefoot. Ride everywhere in a cart and you'll lose your ability to walk very far.
The tradeoffs for most technologies were "worth it" in some sense, but we have gotten (or are getting to) the point where that's no longer the case.
I've read of one or two inventions which have potential for clean cheap energy just get mothballed and never see the light of day. Could this be anything to do with profits made from existing energy sources?
The term "enshittification" kept coming up for me as I read this but B got there first.
I could add one observation, which I present without proof as they say. (It is my experience....)
"Friends, family, community. Or just living together with animals of the forest. Dancing, singing, playing a flute, telling stories around a campfire, cooking, gardening, arts and crafts were always be perfectly possible without science and modernity. "
Science in its modern guise is not neutral to all these wonderful, life-affirming relationships and activities. Whether by design or ignorance or some combination, the mechanist, reductivist worldview of bureaucratic, institutional Science (and Technology) has built a world where it is increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for most people to know these simple pleasures. And this graph is still going up.
The next leap for humanity needs to be behavioral and spiritual, one of wisdom. Clearly, we're not there. The science we have achieved, even if it has been appropriated for meaningless consumer endeavors and become stagnant, has been enough to create the 6th Great Extinction, which could very well include us. Perhaps if we hadn't discovered fossil fuels, we could have reached a better potential. Hard to say, we were violent before technology as well.
I have harbored this fantasy (nightmare?) that science is far more evolved than our government lets on. All the good stuff they have hoarded and neglected to share ‘for our safety’ or some such bullshit. My personal theory about the current UFO mania is that they need some kind of cover to sort of hide the fact that they have been able to dart around the sky defying our notions of flying (and a whole lot more) probably since the 50s… but again, how would I know??
Disagree. There's something happening in the academic fields that is filtering out truth and purposely excluding it. Science as a formal field is dead because bureaucrats have locked in every position for grant money and exile anyone who threatens them using their mastery of bureaucracy. As a result politics, ever the domain of bureaucracy, dictates what happens in that field to everyone's detriment.
As a single example look at thorium reactors. They are a big leap ahead of everything we are currently using as well as using relatively abundant thorium and yet the US refuses to invest a cent. It's not a fantasy technology either, the US had a fully operational one in the 1960s! China says they have one running as of 2023 with plans to massively proliferate modular designs. The justification given to shut ours down was that thorium reactors were so safe they couldn't produce nuclear material suitable for nuclear weapons so there was no reason to have any. wtf?
What happened between 1960 and 2023 that we are so behind now? It's not the anointed science caste becoming so otherworldly superior that no pleb can comprehend them. The science caste isn't even up to snuff, in the energy example, with people from the 60's. It's not necessarily plebs becoming dumber; they certainly may be but the policy deciders for nuclear energy are not plebs, management responsibilities fall solely on the heads of management and they are observably worse than before.
Somehow or another all of this happened under the watch of the Baby Boomers. The geniuses are still around but they are given absolutely no seat at the table and it's become a a blase cultural joke that the CIA has and will kill anyone who discovers cheap energy or the cure for cancer. Whatever the Baby Boomers and the hanger on Silents did as managers has led to this sorry state. In short it's a problem of terrible management, not the employees.
Mmmm.
What about cliodynamics?
Ok, not a field that Will deliver the New energy source, but an interesting field.
More probably It Will confirm exactly what you describe in this excelente post!
What about it? 🤔
This is a "new" field of study, one of the rare new fields of science.
The funny part, is this one studies the evolution of societies, similar to Tainter, but with much more info on macro data.
Of course, it predicts the demise of the current occidental society.
By 2010 it predicted the rise of Trumpism, as an example, when nobody believed it would happen. It was the most accurate prediction ot certain magazine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics
Is a new field (really akin to Asimov's psicohistory, both in idea and in predictions), but it confirms the ideas expressed in the post.
Right on the money. In other words, excellent. 👍
Greta overview! Thank you for your time to put it together.
Same with sports.... the world 100m sprint record has held for 15 years... training for all pro sports is highly specialized and begins very young... we likely are at a peak in performance across all sports...
Anyone who believes man has walked on the moon should watch this documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpuKu3F0BvY
"Anyone who believes man has walked on the moon should watch this documentary..."
*ahem* Speaking of flat earthers...
It is not a good idea to conflate people who demand evidence with people who demand none at all
Did you watch it?
BTW - for must of my life I thought we had walked on the moon - then I watched that.
Ignorance and stupidity are often a choice.
It was you who finally convinced me to watch it. Its.... fascinating. After that, Wagging the Moon Doggie was a great follow up. Jarrad White and Aulis are great places to continue the research
Here is a short teaser for those who prefer to remain in ignorance and not watch American Moon...
A NASA engineer states that they are trying to build a craft that can safely transport man and machine through the deadly Van Allen Belts ... rather odd given that contraption from the 60's already did it...
https://youtu.be/4O5dPsu66Kw?t=167
Peak energy, complexity that cannot be fully comprehended by the individual components of the phenomenon, and biosphere overshoot—what could go wrong? You have written an excellent summary of our predicament.
Thank you for this excellent and very insightful article.
The bit about physicists surprised me, but I guess it shouldn't have!
When Shakespeare's plays were first performed, they didn't need a script for every actor, and producing that many scripts would have been too time-consuming. So actors would read the script once and know their parts. The same with audiences: they'd go home from Romeo and Juliet able to repeat vast stretches of dialogue and the monologues. The thing that changed that: printing presses able to cheaply produce books and plays.
It's the same with all technology, starting with shoes and the wheel (but probably excluding fire). It just makes us weaker. Wear shoes long enough and you won't be able to go barefoot. Ride everywhere in a cart and you'll lose your ability to walk very far.
The tradeoffs for most technologies were "worth it" in some sense, but we have gotten (or are getting to) the point where that's no longer the case.
I've read of one or two inventions which have potential for clean cheap energy just get mothballed and never see the light of day. Could this be anything to do with profits made from existing energy sources?
Thank you B 🙏
The term "enshittification" kept coming up for me as I read this but B got there first.
I could add one observation, which I present without proof as they say. (It is my experience....)
"Friends, family, community. Or just living together with animals of the forest. Dancing, singing, playing a flute, telling stories around a campfire, cooking, gardening, arts and crafts were always be perfectly possible without science and modernity. "
Science in its modern guise is not neutral to all these wonderful, life-affirming relationships and activities. Whether by design or ignorance or some combination, the mechanist, reductivist worldview of bureaucratic, institutional Science (and Technology) has built a world where it is increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for most people to know these simple pleasures. And this graph is still going up.
The next leap for humanity needs to be behavioral and spiritual, one of wisdom. Clearly, we're not there. The science we have achieved, even if it has been appropriated for meaningless consumer endeavors and become stagnant, has been enough to create the 6th Great Extinction, which could very well include us. Perhaps if we hadn't discovered fossil fuels, we could have reached a better potential. Hard to say, we were violent before technology as well.
I have harbored this fantasy (nightmare?) that science is far more evolved than our government lets on. All the good stuff they have hoarded and neglected to share ‘for our safety’ or some such bullshit. My personal theory about the current UFO mania is that they need some kind of cover to sort of hide the fact that they have been able to dart around the sky defying our notions of flying (and a whole lot more) probably since the 50s… but again, how would I know??
B, your writing is getting better and better. Ishmael would be proud.
Just ... thank you. I needed that face full if cold water.
Wonderful article, thank you!
Disagree. There's something happening in the academic fields that is filtering out truth and purposely excluding it. Science as a formal field is dead because bureaucrats have locked in every position for grant money and exile anyone who threatens them using their mastery of bureaucracy. As a result politics, ever the domain of bureaucracy, dictates what happens in that field to everyone's detriment.
As a single example look at thorium reactors. They are a big leap ahead of everything we are currently using as well as using relatively abundant thorium and yet the US refuses to invest a cent. It's not a fantasy technology either, the US had a fully operational one in the 1960s! China says they have one running as of 2023 with plans to massively proliferate modular designs. The justification given to shut ours down was that thorium reactors were so safe they couldn't produce nuclear material suitable for nuclear weapons so there was no reason to have any. wtf?
What happened between 1960 and 2023 that we are so behind now? It's not the anointed science caste becoming so otherworldly superior that no pleb can comprehend them. The science caste isn't even up to snuff, in the energy example, with people from the 60's. It's not necessarily plebs becoming dumber; they certainly may be but the policy deciders for nuclear energy are not plebs, management responsibilities fall solely on the heads of management and they are observably worse than before.
Somehow or another all of this happened under the watch of the Baby Boomers. The geniuses are still around but they are given absolutely no seat at the table and it's become a a blase cultural joke that the CIA has and will kill anyone who discovers cheap energy or the cure for cancer. Whatever the Baby Boomers and the hanger on Silents did as managers has led to this sorry state. In short it's a problem of terrible management, not the employees.