Your analysis of our civilizational predicament is, as always, enlightening. I am particularly enchanted by the jaunty nature of your writing as you skim along the surface of our collective doom. You make collapse almost an enjoyable entertainment. But of course the dangers embedded into our high-energy techno existence are very serious challenges that require retreat to low energy living. People will only go there kicking and screaming like the clueless toddlers that we are.
Thank you for saying this Ed. I know B advocates for a voluntary transition to a low-tech local agarin lifestyle as I do myself. But B and his readers (myself included) both that this is not going to happen voluntarily. It will happen, just not voluntarily. The coming half century will be marked by wars, famine, disease. Billions will die. The survivors will have no choice but to live sustainably. Sad. This is avoidable yet we will chose self destruction instead.
We are so naive when it comes to the scope of this predicament it is akin to a flat-earther mentally not being able to see the three dimensions of the globe. This WAY beyond our visual cues, ain't it?
Sometimes I want to try to correct ppl who reject this analysis. Memorably recently a non-Thai guy living in Thailand with two dogs writing in medium that the world has no time for climate doomers with a bunch of bogus evidence. But ‘jaunty’ pieces like this remind me that my time is better spent working on food production in my region!
I didn’t read your article yet but I sure didn’t say a word about ‘doomsday prepping’. I said ‘regional food system’ which is CURRENTLY useful as well as likely to be useful in whatever future. Hosting a panel discussion w some smart folks on the transition to the next civilization and the myriad ways that might go as part of our https://heritagefoodfest.org among many many other steps
I looked at that site... I pretty much only eat organic food... my bill - for two people -- is about USD600 per month.... I used to grow my own ... I never worked out the cost but it was easily that much when all the inputs and my time was considered...
The global economy is going to collapse - as will the supply chains that supply the farms with the petro chemicals to grow 99.99999% of the food 8B eat...
There is no transitioning... there is only starvation ... and anyone with a garden will be murdered.
I guess you forgot to read this part?
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
Well just chill and eat your mostly organic food then, what’s the point of stressing over stuff you can’t influence. Sounds like you got it all figured out.
The increase in the number of rich people at the expense of the increase in the number of poor people is unequivocal proof that we are immersed in a decline in the net available energy:
"Physicist Francois Roddier has said that physics dictates the outcome of widely diverging incomes when energy supply is low. It takes much less energy to supply an economy of a few rich people and many poor people than it takes to support an economy with relatively equal incomes. The vast majority of the supposed wealth of the rich exists as promises that can only be fulfilled in the future if there is enough energy of the right kinds to fulfill these promises. Their promised future wealth does not affect today’s energy use. While the energy use of rich people is somewhat higher than that of poor people, much of the difference disappears when a person considers the fact that much of their wealth is essentially “paper wealth” that may or may not actually be present as the future actually unfolds."
Billionaires do not run the world ... the fact that Berlusconi - a billionaire mafia kingpin as replaced by an unelected Goldman Sachs MD ... when he pissed of the Men Who Run the World ... demonstrates that the billionaires are minions.. along with the Deep State and politicians of:
My theory is that the war is a manufactured scapegoat for the out of control inflation that has been pounding billions into poverty in recent years. How many times have you read an article about inflation that blamed the Ukraine war in the first paragraph?
The fundamental cause of inflation is the depletion of affordable resources, including oil. This is not a transitory situation, whereas the Ukraine war is. The message is that as soon as the war ends, we will return to normal. You just have to suck it up for awhile and wait for us to get rid of the villain in Russia.
This is a far better story than telling 8 billion people that all that is left is high cost energy, and we are on the precipice of collapse.
Draghi knows this. He is a minion of the Men Who Run the World... he is performing an important role... the Ukraine Fake War is a hugely important tool in keeping the barnyard animals calm as they are marched towards the extermination moment.
Oh btw - Draghi was the Goldman MD who became unelected dictator of Italy after Big B was deposed by the Men Who Run the World...
The only problem with returning to a low-tech, local economy is that it can only support a limited number of people, much lower than our current population. Who will leave?
It will support 1 to 2 billion at most, most likely not even that. It is not a matter of leaving, so much as surviving. War, famine, disease will wipe out most of the human population and whoever survives will be left with no choice but to engage in a low-tech agrarian lifestyle.
Another great advocation for Permaculture. It’s amazing to me how little income and energy I need to get by because I set up low energy off-grid household.
Good writing as always HS, You're probably one of the only people on the web that gets it right. Like Beinhocker most people have some Bias, some ingrained programmed from youth concepts that they just can't shake off. To sort out this puzzle one needs a good matrix of knowledge and most importantly, an open mind and a BS detector.
I think I have it sorted, in the sense of how to respond to the collapse of our cherished western civilizations and all the fun technologies we take for granted. For me it's "Stock up on what you think you'll need" lol, and protect your money. Of course there is a lot more to it than that, like living in a nation not being overrun by immigrants, not living anywhere near a city, living near abundant food and water. But even with all this one still needs to keep an eye on political madness.
Strauss and Howe's work, which I have studied intently, points to an abrupt turning just ahead, at the end of their 'Forth Turning' Winter cycle which is clearly upon us. A great gate of history they called it, one which we will all move through like the ones after the Civil War, or WWII. This is the only random element I can't plan for and it's 100% certain to occur. "You'll own nothing and be happy?" Well that's what the Russian people discovered under communism. Anything is possible in a Crises I imagine, any radical laws effecting assets etc.
Knowing what I know about the Limits to Growth and where we are on their Standard Run I can imagine extreme austerity being implemented across the OECD (that supranational) body that has interesting powers over it's 25 member states... We won't have long to wait now I expect, 5 years at most say.
P.S. Don't worry about the proof reading/editing, the flaws. We all know exactly what you're saying and I for one would rather you had more time to enjoy this beautiful World while it lasts.
Yes, as smart as Beinhocker is, he didn't recognize energy and material inputs in his rethinking of economics. It's been awhile since I looked at that book, and you remind me to check it out...
Already handled, population crash. Already baked in, headed our way. Evenly distributed (as much as can be) by universal reproductive rates collapsing to below 2.1. Over a planetary and species timescale (a few hundred years) homo sapiens will even out at maybe 1 B or so, whatever carrying capacity actually is, at resource consumption rates TBD by new (or old) technologies deployed then.
Our problem (not the planet’s) is our incessant drama about physical reality not conforming to our emotional registers. This is this columnist’s revelation to me. Physical reality prevails over time. Our species ‘sorcery’ outs itself as plain old pyramid scheme, ultimately only fooling ourselves.
"Our problem (not the planet’s) is our incessant drama about physical reality not conforming to our emotional registers."
Succent. Your quote so accurately describes all this "Green New Deal" nonsense. It is nothing more than fantastical thinking in the face of physical reality.
Chemistry, Physics, and Biology don't give a damn about what humans "want."
It was pointed out to me that tech fixes are about changing everything else except me. How can I not change myself or my lifestyle or even my mood, by changing everything else.
Self-absorption much? How do you spell ’myopic’ again?
Your analysis correlates with the Genuine Progress Index, an alternative way of measuring economic growth, which also shows no real growth since the 70s in terms of quality of life.
Your analysis of our civilizational predicament is, as always, enlightening. I am particularly enchanted by the jaunty nature of your writing as you skim along the surface of our collective doom. You make collapse almost an enjoyable entertainment. But of course the dangers embedded into our high-energy techno existence are very serious challenges that require retreat to low energy living. People will only go there kicking and screaming like the clueless toddlers that we are.
Loved the "You make collapse almost an enjoyable entertainment" :D
Thank you for saying this Ed. I know B advocates for a voluntary transition to a low-tech local agarin lifestyle as I do myself. But B and his readers (myself included) both that this is not going to happen voluntarily. It will happen, just not voluntarily. The coming half century will be marked by wars, famine, disease. Billions will die. The survivors will have no choice but to live sustainably. Sad. This is avoidable yet we will chose self destruction instead.
We are so naive when it comes to the scope of this predicament it is akin to a flat-earther mentally not being able to see the three dimensions of the globe. This WAY beyond our visual cues, ain't it?
Is it not better to remain ignorant ... when nothing can be done?
Why have 8B fretting over their imminent extinction.
I know - let's feed them Tee Vee shows about the joys of Doomsday Prepping https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
Sometimes I want to try to correct ppl who reject this analysis. Memorably recently a non-Thai guy living in Thailand with two dogs writing in medium that the world has no time for climate doomers with a bunch of bogus evidence. But ‘jaunty’ pieces like this remind me that my time is better spent working on food production in my region!
You are living in DelusiSTAN
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
I didn’t read your article yet but I sure didn’t say a word about ‘doomsday prepping’. I said ‘regional food system’ which is CURRENTLY useful as well as likely to be useful in whatever future. Hosting a panel discussion w some smart folks on the transition to the next civilization and the myriad ways that might go as part of our https://heritagefoodfest.org among many many other steps
Yeah skimmed it. Utterly irrelevant to my work or reference here
I looked at that site... I pretty much only eat organic food... my bill - for two people -- is about USD600 per month.... I used to grow my own ... I never worked out the cost but it was easily that much when all the inputs and my time was considered...
The global economy is going to collapse - as will the supply chains that supply the farms with the petro chemicals to grow 99.99999% of the food 8B eat...
There is no transitioning... there is only starvation ... and anyone with a garden will be murdered.
I guess you forgot to read this part?
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
Well just chill and eat your mostly organic food then, what’s the point of stressing over stuff you can’t influence. Sounds like you got it all figured out.
I have near zero stress... in fact I am entertained tremendously hahaha
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/indulge-in-schadenfreude-schad
The increase in the number of rich people at the expense of the increase in the number of poor people is unequivocal proof that we are immersed in a decline in the net available energy:
"Physicist Francois Roddier has said that physics dictates the outcome of widely diverging incomes when energy supply is low. It takes much less energy to supply an economy of a few rich people and many poor people than it takes to support an economy with relatively equal incomes. The vast majority of the supposed wealth of the rich exists as promises that can only be fulfilled in the future if there is enough energy of the right kinds to fulfill these promises. Their promised future wealth does not affect today’s energy use. While the energy use of rich people is somewhat higher than that of poor people, much of the difference disappears when a person considers the fact that much of their wealth is essentially “paper wealth” that may or may not actually be present as the future actually unfolds."
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/08/21/todays-economy-is-like-that-of-the-late-1920s/
The 0.1% have this other idea, which does not include most of us...
What is a ‘Breakaway Civilization’?
https://mitteldorf.substack.com/p/what-is-a-breakaway-civilization
Billionaires do not run the world ... the fact that Berlusconi - a billionaire mafia kingpin as replaced by an unelected Goldman Sachs MD ... when he pissed of the Men Who Run the World ... demonstrates that the billionaires are minions.. along with the Deep State and politicians of:
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/who-runs-the-world
I keep reading that Russia has cut off the gas to Europe... but that is wrong:
Russia Reclaims Its Position as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier
Jun 17, 2024
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Reclaims-Its-Position-as-Europes-Top-Gas-Supplier.html
The Ukraine War is fake... as I prove here https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-war-is-fake
Why Fake a War?
My theory is that the war is a manufactured scapegoat for the out of control inflation that has been pounding billions into poverty in recent years. How many times have you read an article about inflation that blamed the Ukraine war in the first paragraph?
The fundamental cause of inflation is the depletion of affordable resources, including oil. This is not a transitory situation, whereas the Ukraine war is. The message is that as soon as the war ends, we will return to normal. You just have to suck it up for awhile and wait for us to get rid of the villain in Russia.
This is a far better story than telling 8 billion people that all that is left is high cost energy, and we are on the precipice of collapse.
Draghi knows this. He is a minion of the Men Who Run the World... he is performing an important role... the Ukraine Fake War is a hugely important tool in keeping the barnyard animals calm as they are marched towards the extermination moment.
Oh btw - Draghi was the Goldman MD who became unelected dictator of Italy after Big B was deposed by the Men Who Run the World...
The only problem with returning to a low-tech, local economy is that it can only support a limited number of people, much lower than our current population. Who will leave?
It will support 1 to 2 billion at most, most likely not even that. It is not a matter of leaving, so much as surviving. War, famine, disease will wipe out most of the human population and whoever survives will be left with no choice but to engage in a low-tech agrarian lifestyle.
Another great advocation for Permaculture. It’s amazing to me how little income and energy I need to get by because I set up low energy off-grid household.
Still need some fossil fuels though!
Good writing as always HS, You're probably one of the only people on the web that gets it right. Like Beinhocker most people have some Bias, some ingrained programmed from youth concepts that they just can't shake off. To sort out this puzzle one needs a good matrix of knowledge and most importantly, an open mind and a BS detector.
I think I have it sorted, in the sense of how to respond to the collapse of our cherished western civilizations and all the fun technologies we take for granted. For me it's "Stock up on what you think you'll need" lol, and protect your money. Of course there is a lot more to it than that, like living in a nation not being overrun by immigrants, not living anywhere near a city, living near abundant food and water. But even with all this one still needs to keep an eye on political madness.
Strauss and Howe's work, which I have studied intently, points to an abrupt turning just ahead, at the end of their 'Forth Turning' Winter cycle which is clearly upon us. A great gate of history they called it, one which we will all move through like the ones after the Civil War, or WWII. This is the only random element I can't plan for and it's 100% certain to occur. "You'll own nothing and be happy?" Well that's what the Russian people discovered under communism. Anything is possible in a Crises I imagine, any radical laws effecting assets etc.
Knowing what I know about the Limits to Growth and where we are on their Standard Run I can imagine extreme austerity being implemented across the OECD (that supranational) body that has interesting powers over it's 25 member states... We won't have long to wait now I expect, 5 years at most say.
P.S. Don't worry about the proof reading/editing, the flaws. We all know exactly what you're saying and I for one would rather you had more time to enjoy this beautiful World while it lasts.
Ozzie mate
Yes, as smart as Beinhocker is, he didn't recognize energy and material inputs in his rethinking of economics. It's been awhile since I looked at that book, and you remind me to check it out...
Already handled, population crash. Already baked in, headed our way. Evenly distributed (as much as can be) by universal reproductive rates collapsing to below 2.1. Over a planetary and species timescale (a few hundred years) homo sapiens will even out at maybe 1 B or so, whatever carrying capacity actually is, at resource consumption rates TBD by new (or old) technologies deployed then.
Our problem (not the planet’s) is our incessant drama about physical reality not conforming to our emotional registers. This is this columnist’s revelation to me. Physical reality prevails over time. Our species ‘sorcery’ outs itself as plain old pyramid scheme, ultimately only fooling ourselves.
"Our problem (not the planet’s) is our incessant drama about physical reality not conforming to our emotional registers."
Succent. Your quote so accurately describes all this "Green New Deal" nonsense. It is nothing more than fantastical thinking in the face of physical reality.
Chemistry, Physics, and Biology don't give a damn about what humans "want."
It was pointed out to me that tech fixes are about changing everything else except me. How can I not change myself or my lifestyle or even my mood, by changing everything else.
Self-absorption much? How do you spell ’myopic’ again?
H-U-M-A-N
Well said. This self absorbed species is incapable of saving itself. It will burn out and life will continue.
Your analysis correlates with the Genuine Progress Index, an alternative way of measuring economic growth, which also shows no real growth since the 70s in terms of quality of life.