A great analysis of some aspects of the global crises. However the complexity of cascading feedbacks in the bio/geo/physical systems get short shrift, it seems to me.
A full analysis would include potentially catastrophic disruptions that can influence other threats and spread. Biological annihilation, economic collapse, toxic pollution from artificial chemical compounds come to mind. And that is not even counting certain factors active in the oceans now, including excessive heat, hypoxia, acidification, loss of primary production, stratification (nutrients can not mix) disruption of currents, which have been identified as factors in mass extinction events in the past.
Counterpoint: The nonlinearity of complex systems such as the biosphere or a human culture, are somehow always interpreted as "things will go horribly wrong". Why? I feel that that is frankly, just mental habit.
Cascading feedback can as well point to an amazing and unexpected ability to recover, and create new functioning, in both humans and in ecology. Especially when they are freed from constant disturbance via fossil-powered technology. Cascading feedback can be your friend.
Thank you B🙏I think you mercifully left the changes in climate out of this. It might make things bit more complicated, still who can tell how all works out...
This is the future I talk to friends about. I consider myself an optimist. Different doesn’t mean bad. I hope that future generations can’t understand the hell of this age.
As a former electronics engineer in automotive sector, I wonder how long will modern vehicles last.
Or, to be precise, how long will electronics in those cars last.
Old vehicles had very little electronics inside, if any, and that lasted for long. New ones are packed with gadgets and gimmicks and frankly useless amount of electronics. By Law, BTW, and at least in Europe, you can't buy a new car with lots of that.
And the EU (and many other countries, using climate change and emissions as excuse) is forbiding the use of old, electronic-less cars.
So I guess in a not so distant future, many cars can't simply be repaired and put to work again due the electronic problems they will have.
Of course, all this goes beyond cars, and applies to many things that simply couldn't work without electronics.
Sorting out atoms into an integrated circuit is the lowest enthropy level done by our technology. Thus this will probably be one of the first to go out.
Right now, semiconductor manufacturing is almost not really viable from an economic point of view, even less new developments in lower nanometer sizes. States and governments had to step in in order to allow IC manufacturing going along.
That will go soon too, and that will made for many other kind of problems (logistics, handling, communications).
Catabolic collapse, as described by JMG, is descending staircase shaped. Things will go, probably for good, and will never be seen again.
A great analysis of some aspects of the global crises. However the complexity of cascading feedbacks in the bio/geo/physical systems get short shrift, it seems to me.
A full analysis would include potentially catastrophic disruptions that can influence other threats and spread. Biological annihilation, economic collapse, toxic pollution from artificial chemical compounds come to mind. And that is not even counting certain factors active in the oceans now, including excessive heat, hypoxia, acidification, loss of primary production, stratification (nutrients can not mix) disruption of currents, which have been identified as factors in mass extinction events in the past.
You are fully right, there are simply too many "black swans" coming our way. Be sure to read my post where I try to list those. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/how-i-came-to-believe-that-civilization
Counterpoint: The nonlinearity of complex systems such as the biosphere or a human culture, are somehow always interpreted as "things will go horribly wrong". Why? I feel that that is frankly, just mental habit.
Cascading feedback can as well point to an amazing and unexpected ability to recover, and create new functioning, in both humans and in ecology. Especially when they are freed from constant disturbance via fossil-powered technology. Cascading feedback can be your friend.
Thank you B🙏I think you mercifully left the changes in climate out of this. It might make things bit more complicated, still who can tell how all works out...
This essay was meant to be the "hopeful" optimist scenario: that we somehow eek it out, and that collapse (climate, economic) will not be as bad.
This is the future I talk to friends about. I consider myself an optimist. Different doesn’t mean bad. I hope that future generations can’t understand the hell of this age.
Hi, Sorcerer:
May I disagree a little bit?
As a former electronics engineer in automotive sector, I wonder how long will modern vehicles last.
Or, to be precise, how long will electronics in those cars last.
Old vehicles had very little electronics inside, if any, and that lasted for long. New ones are packed with gadgets and gimmicks and frankly useless amount of electronics. By Law, BTW, and at least in Europe, you can't buy a new car with lots of that.
And the EU (and many other countries, using climate change and emissions as excuse) is forbiding the use of old, electronic-less cars.
So I guess in a not so distant future, many cars can't simply be repaired and put to work again due the electronic problems they will have.
Of course, all this goes beyond cars, and applies to many things that simply couldn't work without electronics.
Sorting out atoms into an integrated circuit is the lowest enthropy level done by our technology. Thus this will probably be one of the first to go out.
Right now, semiconductor manufacturing is almost not really viable from an economic point of view, even less new developments in lower nanometer sizes. States and governments had to step in in order to allow IC manufacturing going along.
That will go soon too, and that will made for many other kind of problems (logistics, handling, communications).
Catabolic collapse, as described by JMG, is descending staircase shaped. Things will go, probably for good, and will never be seen again.
Just my two cents!
Keep the good work!
Beamspot.