Just like that goofy Druid that tries to predict the future our author has taken a dive into the fanciful, silly church of slow collapse.
Normally, 'B' is great. Normally he sticks to fairly provable stuff -- stuff that has already happened or is so close that it is obvious that it will happen. This, was not in keeping with 'B's high standard.
Agreed. B, with this one you may have indulged a bit in overdooming. Our species has indeed overshot our resources; has indeed consumed the energy legacy that might have been left for future generations; the human future will be radically reduced in means; bronze and the reasoning behind it makes sense - but you are leaving out the eternal human capacity for forgetting, and restarting, and nature’s capacity for awesome regeneration.
In short, although our species doesn’t ‘deserve’ to survive, has fallen woefully short on virtually all moral metrics, and, eternally, may never learn - well earning our ‘disgust’ (rooted in our disappointment with ourselves) - yet Nature, like any true God, simply IS ….. far beyond OUR stories and conceptions.
The rain falls equally on the just and the unjust. The Tao remains unperturbed, no matter our temporal silliness. Nature brings the storms, and policies bring the catastrophes; yet ‘the journey of our history has not ceased. Earth turns us still towards the rising East.’ Life is bigger than us, including our stupidity.
Let us not be led astray in our reasonings by beginning the task with emotionally satisfying conclusions, and then secondarily assembling supporting evidence. Let the evidence lead the reasoning. You are good at that, B. Therein lies any useful sense-making that may transcend our ever-present, oh-so-human myopic self-congratulation.
Seems to me overall the elites shall preserve as much high tech as possible. Weapons as well. Elite enclaves exist. Shall continue to exist. I would argue that they anticipate collapse and try to game it, shape it, manage it. It is about the same as an organized tactical retreat. Apocalyptic climate collapse-outside of thermonuclear war and overwhelming climate engineering requires looking at the Sun and the Solar System. Man, puny man, comes and goes but the Earth abides. And men will adapt. Intelligence and imagination can find solutions unforseen.
"...even the gentlest societies will begin to disappear." -- Unfortunately, the gentlest societies are always the first to go. Those most willing to commit the worst atrocities are usually the "winners" in whatever competition / game is being played.
As a enthusiast of Ancient Greek, I like to point out the fact that even the earliest Greek texts such as Homer and Hesiod associate the collapse of their civilizational predecessors with the disappearance of bronze. Indeed, it was in Hesiod's "Works and Days" from around 700 BCE that we find the first mention of the Bronze Age.
"Zeus the Father made a third generation of mortal men, a brazen race, sprung from ash-trees; and it was in no way equal to the silver age, but was terrible and strong. They loved the lamentable works of Ares and deeds of violence... Their armour was of bronze, and their houses of bronze, and of bronze were their implements: there was no black iron."
Thanks to this article, I can see why even the Greeks knew there was no "black iron" in the olden days of bronze. It was simply too inefficient from an evergy perspective, much like no one tried fracking before conventional oil began to tun out...
Interestingly, the Greeks referred to their own age as the Iron Age—in which lives were harder and men were weaker and more cowardly than their ancestors. Also, in their view, mankind was doomed to continue its decline.
"Thereafter, would that I were not among the men of the fifth generation, but either had died before or been born afterwards. For now truly is a race of iron, and men never rest from labour and sorrow by day, and from perishing by night; and the gods shall lay sore trouble upon them. But, notwithstanding, even these shall have some good mingled with their evils. And Zeus will destroy this race of mortal men also when they come to have grey hair on the temples at their birth..."
Understanding that the Ancient Greeks were still nostalgic for the times immediately before the Bronze Age Collapse is essential, in my view, to grasping the essence of Western Culture, for better or worse...
This essay is a very useful exercise for planning for the future - especially because it doesn’t incorporate the “Never underestimate the spirit, resourcefulness, and resilience of humans” optimistic argument.
No one can predict the future but planning based upon the probability of various scenarios is a widely accepted practice. The credibility of a given scenario is established by using factual data and logical reasoning.
I’m not qualified to attach a probability number to the basic scenario laid out in this essay, but I think it’s certainly a double digit figure. B has provided sufficient factual data in his essays to demonstrate the critical role of diesel fuel and it’s inevitable decline. His references to the sixth mass extinction, topsoil erosion, ore deposit decline, pollution, etc, are easily verified. And, the “overshoot” predicament of 8 billion humans is reasonably established.
Putting together the current facts of resource depletion along with the credible science of overshoot theory, only needs a bit of logical reasoning to establish a legitimate probability for the scenario in B’s essay. And, he readily admits that this is not the only possible scenario for the future of humans.
I, for one, am persuaded that the scenario in this essay has a substantial probability of coming true. However, the real point is to give this kind of discussion a broader audience. Perhaps it will help some people make wiser life decisions - regardless of this scenario’s exact probability.
Just like that goofy Druid that tries to predict the future our author has taken a dive into the fanciful, silly church of slow collapse.
Normally, 'B' is great. Normally he sticks to fairly provable stuff -- stuff that has already happened or is so close that it is obvious that it will happen. This, was not in keeping with 'B's high standard.
Agreed. B, with this one you may have indulged a bit in overdooming. Our species has indeed overshot our resources; has indeed consumed the energy legacy that might have been left for future generations; the human future will be radically reduced in means; bronze and the reasoning behind it makes sense - but you are leaving out the eternal human capacity for forgetting, and restarting, and nature’s capacity for awesome regeneration.
In short, although our species doesn’t ‘deserve’ to survive, has fallen woefully short on virtually all moral metrics, and, eternally, may never learn - well earning our ‘disgust’ (rooted in our disappointment with ourselves) - yet Nature, like any true God, simply IS ….. far beyond OUR stories and conceptions.
The rain falls equally on the just and the unjust. The Tao remains unperturbed, no matter our temporal silliness. Nature brings the storms, and policies bring the catastrophes; yet ‘the journey of our history has not ceased. Earth turns us still towards the rising East.’ Life is bigger than us, including our stupidity.
Let us not be led astray in our reasonings by beginning the task with emotionally satisfying conclusions, and then secondarily assembling supporting evidence. Let the evidence lead the reasoning. You are good at that, B. Therein lies any useful sense-making that may transcend our ever-present, oh-so-human myopic self-congratulation.
Not sure why you jumped from the end of large scale metallurgy to human extinction.
Seems to me overall the elites shall preserve as much high tech as possible. Weapons as well. Elite enclaves exist. Shall continue to exist. I would argue that they anticipate collapse and try to game it, shape it, manage it. It is about the same as an organized tactical retreat. Apocalyptic climate collapse-outside of thermonuclear war and overwhelming climate engineering requires looking at the Sun and the Solar System. Man, puny man, comes and goes but the Earth abides. And men will adapt. Intelligence and imagination can find solutions unforseen.
"...even the gentlest societies will begin to disappear." -- Unfortunately, the gentlest societies are always the first to go. Those most willing to commit the worst atrocities are usually the "winners" in whatever competition / game is being played.
Your work is always a great read! Thanks for sharing.
As a enthusiast of Ancient Greek, I like to point out the fact that even the earliest Greek texts such as Homer and Hesiod associate the collapse of their civilizational predecessors with the disappearance of bronze. Indeed, it was in Hesiod's "Works and Days" from around 700 BCE that we find the first mention of the Bronze Age.
"Zeus the Father made a third generation of mortal men, a brazen race, sprung from ash-trees; and it was in no way equal to the silver age, but was terrible and strong. They loved the lamentable works of Ares and deeds of violence... Their armour was of bronze, and their houses of bronze, and of bronze were their implements: there was no black iron."
Thanks to this article, I can see why even the Greeks knew there was no "black iron" in the olden days of bronze. It was simply too inefficient from an evergy perspective, much like no one tried fracking before conventional oil began to tun out...
Interestingly, the Greeks referred to their own age as the Iron Age—in which lives were harder and men were weaker and more cowardly than their ancestors. Also, in their view, mankind was doomed to continue its decline.
"Thereafter, would that I were not among the men of the fifth generation, but either had died before or been born afterwards. For now truly is a race of iron, and men never rest from labour and sorrow by day, and from perishing by night; and the gods shall lay sore trouble upon them. But, notwithstanding, even these shall have some good mingled with their evils. And Zeus will destroy this race of mortal men also when they come to have grey hair on the temples at their birth..."
Understanding that the Ancient Greeks were still nostalgic for the times immediately before the Bronze Age Collapse is essential, in my view, to grasping the essence of Western Culture, for better or worse...
This essay is a very useful exercise for planning for the future - especially because it doesn’t incorporate the “Never underestimate the spirit, resourcefulness, and resilience of humans” optimistic argument.
No one can predict the future but planning based upon the probability of various scenarios is a widely accepted practice. The credibility of a given scenario is established by using factual data and logical reasoning.
I’m not qualified to attach a probability number to the basic scenario laid out in this essay, but I think it’s certainly a double digit figure. B has provided sufficient factual data in his essays to demonstrate the critical role of diesel fuel and it’s inevitable decline. His references to the sixth mass extinction, topsoil erosion, ore deposit decline, pollution, etc, are easily verified. And, the “overshoot” predicament of 8 billion humans is reasonably established.
Putting together the current facts of resource depletion along with the credible science of overshoot theory, only needs a bit of logical reasoning to establish a legitimate probability for the scenario in B’s essay. And, he readily admits that this is not the only possible scenario for the future of humans.
I, for one, am persuaded that the scenario in this essay has a substantial probability of coming true. However, the real point is to give this kind of discussion a broader audience. Perhaps it will help some people make wiser life decisions - regardless of this scenario’s exact probability.