Im sure you are very proud of how your parents survived the hard times (you should be very very proud of them) The fall of the Soviet Union had most devastating consequences for those unwilling to adjust or who fell in to dispare and turned to drink/drugs. If you study how Cuba survived the collapse of the Soviet Union (their energy use dropped nearly 40% overnight) there was no mass starvation but everyone lost weight and gained health and life expectancy. Like those in Russia who grew their own food the Cubans started gardens, the struggle was hard but with spirit and positive outlook(hopeium) life can continue. My advice, start a garden now however small, and learn the skills needed.
"for those unwilling to adjust"..... for perhaps somewhat better understanding, may I suggest reading Naomi Klein's book The Shock Doctrine?
Cuba's luck was that they were smart enough to keep the West out and had good soil (3 food crops cycles per year on rich, well irrigated, soil), surrounded by sea (fish) set in a good climate zone (no killer frost) to their collectively organised! advantage. Good luck trying that stunt in New York or Moscow.
Read it, Naomi is now stuck in a covid doom loop afraid of her own shadow spouting corporate narratives and unwilling to research anything that goes against her billionaire family interests. Growing food also means storage ie canning BTW all Russias have access to 2 hectares of allotment/gardens so even with one crop per year they will do alright....wouldn't be as hopefull for New Yorkers
The only thing that book illuminated was kleins decent into progressive narrative madness, she is still an avid clot shot advocate who is unwilling to research beyond the "approved" sources.
Before any disintegration happens the rich oligarchic elite will double down on their policies of creating higher, consciously obliterating, layers of control well beyond any "democratic" reach. Undemocratic institutions like NATO, the EU, ECB, Interpol, etc all have the same purpose. So expect more and far worse to come. More controlling and more, now openly, gloves-off, suppressive.
The level of censorship I've been seeing the last 3 years is staggering. Far worse than I remember experiencing during the Cold War as a teenager and student in the '80's and '90's in the Netherlands. The amount of Western doublespeak, like war for peace (Ukraine), is simply mind boggling. At least back then the press often opposed Power, gave us some perspective of what was going on and our teachers taught us to also read the missing lines. There generally was far more engagement and opposition. Indifference and apathy, effective managed by governmental run psy-ops mind control programs seem to be scripted straight out of Aldous Huxley's Brave New World: for Netflix and chill press"like".
Interesting analysis that bears a few more reads and independent investigation. I only recently learned of BRICS. I would add that climate change is a huge wildcard. The migration it's going to drive, decreasing productivity of agriculture and billion dollar weather events will inevitably create considerable unpredictability. I appreciate your work.
But one thing I'd take issue with is that you make it sound like Eastern societies will be better off. I'm not sure how much you know about Asia (no offense, nobody can know everything about the entire world), but as someone who's been living in Southeast Asia for over a decade, it certainly seems like societies here are threatened to a similar extent as Western ones. China is teetering on the brink of economic collapse, and this will eventually drag down most other countries in the area as well. The exact composition of the mix of existential threats is slightly different, but no less dangerous. While there might be less extreme political polarization here (collectivist societies in the East vs individualist societies in the West), man-made environmental destruction is reaching catastrophic levels.
This doesn't mean that climate change is harmless - we've been getting hammered by extreme weather events for three years in a row now, with severe consequences for agriculture - but just shows how utterly devastating human activity has proven to be towards the living (non-human) world.
Most people in the West simply can't fathom what is going on here, they can't imagine the total war being waged against the living world. It is utter madness, really. The crucial resources to run out here might be wildlife, trees, clean air, and fertile topsoil.
And what's even worse is that barely anyone here thinks that there is anything wrong with the current trajectory! Collapse-awareness in Eastern societies (in general) is NEAR ZERO. There is a widespread cultural belief that talking about negative things should be avoided, as exemplified by the "three wise monkeys": see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. This is a cultural maxim that's being applied all throughout (South-)East Asian societies, so talking openly about collapse might - according to commonly held belief - be the very thing to facilitate said collapse. Better to keep your head down (as the Japanese say, "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down") and just keep doing what everyone else does.
Dissident voices are being brutally repressed throughout the entire region, so there can't even be any open debate about those issues. Political opponents are regularly jailed (or worse), so you can't even talk openly about problems if it might threaten the interests of the established elites. For instance, here in Thailand (where I live), over 60 environmentalists have been killed since the year 2000. Many more have been threatened or otherwise silenced.
As an example, try to find an article that's CRITICAL of AI (or any modern technology, that is) in any major (South-)East Asian newspaper.
Another aspect that will rapidly accelerate collapse is the public health crisis currently unfolding in the region. As with collapse in general, health awareness is very low, pollution levels (microplastics!) are sky-high, environmental laws are notoriously lax, and as a result, cancer rates in Thailand have doubled (!!) in the last five years, while new diabetes cases have doubled within a single year (!!!) - just two random examples.
Additionally, the fertility rate in Thailand currently stands at 1.3, and this already creates ripple effects throughout society that will lead any observer to the conclusion that collapse is happening - although in a slightly different fashion than in Europe or the US.
Moreover, if anything happens to global supply chains, societies here will disintegrate in no time, just like every other nation utterly dependent on this economic superstructure.
There is no alternative to the capitalist economy, and the goal remains attaining Western-style levels of consumption, material wealth, and hence pollution & environmental impact. Most people feel it's their right to achieve & enjoy this lifestyle, and they don't allow anything to stand in the way of this goal. They're so close to their local version of the "American Dream" that they won't accept any (perceived) setback now.
Anyway, just some thoughts from the other side of the world. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the issue.
With the help of real then fossil slaves, Western states have built empires to compensate for the lack of resources at home and to amass fortunes for the billionaire class.
Are you suggesting that the non-billionaires --- are not complicit --- and that most of us have not been living quite large off of these spoils? Why put the blame on the billionaires?
'There’s no reason why the material economy shouldn’t shrink at a relatively manageable pace'
And what does a shrinking material economy look like? It looks like massive job losses... defaults on every type of loan.... and the total implosion of the global economy.
'BRICS countries are now busy building resilience and actively preparing for the West’s impending fall.'
Surely you cannot be serious. Are you not aware of the gigantic debacle that is China? It's unsolvable demographic crisis? It's unfixable property calamity?
I'm on the tail end of what might be my last great bucket listing adventure trip - targeting the Ladakh region of India -- a mate who is a senior investment banker based in Hong Kong (20 yrs) was along for the journey and was regaling me tales of just how f789ed the Chinese economy is.
You are delusional.
If anything the US, even with the shit stains, is the cleanest shirt in the laundry because of the USD...
The entire world is doomed.
Are you suggesting that BRICS are immune to the severe depletion of affordable energy and other resources?
While the depletion of rich mineral and fossil fuel deposits knows no borders, Eurasian powers still use these resources more wisely and efficiently. They haven’t extracted everything in a rabid frenzy to increase shareholder value.
4 comments in a row and no one replied to any of them. You don't know how to take a hint.
What's a matter eddy, nobody's coming to your substack in spite of your spamming on steroids? You reek of desperation.
Perhaps you should take a break. Go on vacation...to Las Vegas.
~~~~
**Las Vegas hits record of fifth consecutive day of 115 degrees or greater as heat wave scorches US**
.
A prolonged heat wave has baked Las Vegas in its record fifth consecutive day of temperatures sizzling at 115 degrees or greater
.
"Even by desert standards, the prolonged baking that Nevada’s largest city is experiencing is nearly unprecedented, with forecasters calling it “the most extreme heat wave” since the National Weather Service began keeping records in Las Vegas in 1937."
**World Records Hottest Day Ever—Here Are The U.S. Cities Breaking Heat Records This Summer**
.
"The planet recorded its hottest day ever Sunday, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, as an unrelenting string of heat waves continue to topple daily record high temperatures across the U.S.—and more records are expected to fall as heat alerts remain in effect along the West Coast and northern Rocky Mountains."
You could also try visiting Calgary - you would fit right in with the locals.
~~~~~~~~~
.
**Unrelenting heat persists in Alberta, storm risk could fuel wildfire activity**
'More heat records are about to be broken in Alberta on Monday as an incoming storm may spark more wildfires in the region'
'While the heat isn’t quite as bad as the 40-degree readings next door in British Columbia, this is still a record-breaking spell of hot weather across Alberta.'
Im sure you are very proud of how your parents survived the hard times (you should be very very proud of them) The fall of the Soviet Union had most devastating consequences for those unwilling to adjust or who fell in to dispare and turned to drink/drugs. If you study how Cuba survived the collapse of the Soviet Union (their energy use dropped nearly 40% overnight) there was no mass starvation but everyone lost weight and gained health and life expectancy. Like those in Russia who grew their own food the Cubans started gardens, the struggle was hard but with spirit and positive outlook(hopeium) life can continue. My advice, start a garden now however small, and learn the skills needed.
"for those unwilling to adjust"..... for perhaps somewhat better understanding, may I suggest reading Naomi Klein's book The Shock Doctrine?
Cuba's luck was that they were smart enough to keep the West out and had good soil (3 food crops cycles per year on rich, well irrigated, soil), surrounded by sea (fish) set in a good climate zone (no killer frost) to their collectively organised! advantage. Good luck trying that stunt in New York or Moscow.
Read it, Naomi is now stuck in a covid doom loop afraid of her own shadow spouting corporate narratives and unwilling to research anything that goes against her billionaire family interests. Growing food also means storage ie canning BTW all Russias have access to 2 hectares of allotment/gardens so even with one crop per year they will do alright....wouldn't be as hopefull for New Yorkers
Wrong Naomi. Covid conspiracy Naomi is Naomi Wolf. Naomi Klein wrote an illuminating book called Doppleganger about this.
The only thing that book illuminated was kleins decent into progressive narrative madness, she is still an avid clot shot advocate who is unwilling to research beyond the "approved" sources.
Thank you HS🙏
Before any disintegration happens the rich oligarchic elite will double down on their policies of creating higher, consciously obliterating, layers of control well beyond any "democratic" reach. Undemocratic institutions like NATO, the EU, ECB, Interpol, etc all have the same purpose. So expect more and far worse to come. More controlling and more, now openly, gloves-off, suppressive.
The level of censorship I've been seeing the last 3 years is staggering. Far worse than I remember experiencing during the Cold War as a teenager and student in the '80's and '90's in the Netherlands. The amount of Western doublespeak, like war for peace (Ukraine), is simply mind boggling. At least back then the press often opposed Power, gave us some perspective of what was going on and our teachers taught us to also read the missing lines. There generally was far more engagement and opposition. Indifference and apathy, effective managed by governmental run psy-ops mind control programs seem to be scripted straight out of Aldous Huxley's Brave New World: for Netflix and chill press"like".
On where we might be heading, enjoy Elze van Hamelen's interview of David A. Hughes > https://dhughes.substack.com/p/interview-with-elze-van-hamelen-may
Interesting analysis that bears a few more reads and independent investigation. I only recently learned of BRICS. I would add that climate change is a huge wildcard. The migration it's going to drive, decreasing productivity of agriculture and billion dollar weather events will inevitably create considerable unpredictability. I appreciate your work.
Again, great piece.
But one thing I'd take issue with is that you make it sound like Eastern societies will be better off. I'm not sure how much you know about Asia (no offense, nobody can know everything about the entire world), but as someone who's been living in Southeast Asia for over a decade, it certainly seems like societies here are threatened to a similar extent as Western ones. China is teetering on the brink of economic collapse, and this will eventually drag down most other countries in the area as well. The exact composition of the mix of existential threats is slightly different, but no less dangerous. While there might be less extreme political polarization here (collectivist societies in the East vs individualist societies in the West), man-made environmental destruction is reaching catastrophic levels.
In fact, a report for the NIC from 2010 titled "Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications" (https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf) clearly states that "Southeast Asia faces a greater threat from existing manmade environmental challenges than from climate change to 2030" (!!!).
This doesn't mean that climate change is harmless - we've been getting hammered by extreme weather events for three years in a row now, with severe consequences for agriculture - but just shows how utterly devastating human activity has proven to be towards the living (non-human) world.
Most people in the West simply can't fathom what is going on here, they can't imagine the total war being waged against the living world. It is utter madness, really. The crucial resources to run out here might be wildlife, trees, clean air, and fertile topsoil.
And what's even worse is that barely anyone here thinks that there is anything wrong with the current trajectory! Collapse-awareness in Eastern societies (in general) is NEAR ZERO. There is a widespread cultural belief that talking about negative things should be avoided, as exemplified by the "three wise monkeys": see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. This is a cultural maxim that's being applied all throughout (South-)East Asian societies, so talking openly about collapse might - according to commonly held belief - be the very thing to facilitate said collapse. Better to keep your head down (as the Japanese say, "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down") and just keep doing what everyone else does.
Dissident voices are being brutally repressed throughout the entire region, so there can't even be any open debate about those issues. Political opponents are regularly jailed (or worse), so you can't even talk openly about problems if it might threaten the interests of the established elites. For instance, here in Thailand (where I live), over 60 environmentalists have been killed since the year 2000. Many more have been threatened or otherwise silenced.
As an example, try to find an article that's CRITICAL of AI (or any modern technology, that is) in any major (South-)East Asian newspaper.
Another aspect that will rapidly accelerate collapse is the public health crisis currently unfolding in the region. As with collapse in general, health awareness is very low, pollution levels (microplastics!) are sky-high, environmental laws are notoriously lax, and as a result, cancer rates in Thailand have doubled (!!) in the last five years, while new diabetes cases have doubled within a single year (!!!) - just two random examples.
Additionally, the fertility rate in Thailand currently stands at 1.3, and this already creates ripple effects throughout society that will lead any observer to the conclusion that collapse is happening - although in a slightly different fashion than in Europe or the US.
Moreover, if anything happens to global supply chains, societies here will disintegrate in no time, just like every other nation utterly dependent on this economic superstructure.
There is no alternative to the capitalist economy, and the goal remains attaining Western-style levels of consumption, material wealth, and hence pollution & environmental impact. Most people feel it's their right to achieve & enjoy this lifestyle, and they don't allow anything to stand in the way of this goal. They're so close to their local version of the "American Dream" that they won't accept any (perceived) setback now.
Anyway, just some thoughts from the other side of the world. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the issue.
With the help of real then fossil slaves, Western states have built empires to compensate for the lack of resources at home and to amass fortunes for the billionaire class.
Are you suggesting that the non-billionaires --- are not complicit --- and that most of us have not been living quite large off of these spoils? Why put the blame on the billionaires?
'There’s no reason why the material economy shouldn’t shrink at a relatively manageable pace'
And what does a shrinking material economy look like? It looks like massive job losses... defaults on every type of loan.... and the total implosion of the global economy.
Tim makes no sense with that comment.
'BRICS countries are now busy building resilience and actively preparing for the West’s impending fall.'
Surely you cannot be serious. Are you not aware of the gigantic debacle that is China? It's unsolvable demographic crisis? It's unfixable property calamity?
I'm on the tail end of what might be my last great bucket listing adventure trip - targeting the Ladakh region of India -- a mate who is a senior investment banker based in Hong Kong (20 yrs) was along for the journey and was regaling me tales of just how f789ed the Chinese economy is.
You are delusional.
If anything the US, even with the shit stains, is the cleanest shirt in the laundry because of the USD...
The entire world is doomed.
Are you suggesting that BRICS are immune to the severe depletion of affordable energy and other resources?
While the depletion of rich mineral and fossil fuel deposits knows no borders, Eurasian powers still use these resources more wisely and efficiently. They haven’t extracted everything in a rabid frenzy to increase shareholder value.
Possibly the most ridiculous comment - ever.
As the Chinese burn record amounts of coal... https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/chinas-coal-country-full-steam-ahead-with-new-power-plants-despite-climate-2023-11-30/
4 comments in a row and no one replied to any of them. You don't know how to take a hint.
What's a matter eddy, nobody's coming to your substack in spite of your spamming on steroids? You reek of desperation.
Perhaps you should take a break. Go on vacation...to Las Vegas.
~~~~
**Las Vegas hits record of fifth consecutive day of 115 degrees or greater as heat wave scorches US**
.
A prolonged heat wave has baked Las Vegas in its record fifth consecutive day of temperatures sizzling at 115 degrees or greater
.
"Even by desert standards, the prolonged baking that Nevada’s largest city is experiencing is nearly unprecedented, with forecasters calling it “the most extreme heat wave” since the National Weather Service began keeping records in Las Vegas in 1937."
.
https://elkodaily.com/news/state-and-regional/las-vegas-eyes-record-of-5th-consecutive-day-over-115-degrees-as-heat-wave-continues/article_2ea1e033-7f24-5400-b648-373dc42cbb32.html
~~~~
**World Records Hottest Day Ever—Here Are The U.S. Cities Breaking Heat Records This Summer**
.
"The planet recorded its hottest day ever Sunday, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, as an unrelenting string of heat waves continue to topple daily record high temperatures across the U.S.—and more records are expected to fall as heat alerts remain in effect along the West Coast and northern Rocky Mountains."
.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/07/23/world-records-hottest-day-ever-here-are-the-us-cities-breaking-heat-records-this-summer/
~~~~~~~
You could also try visiting Calgary - you would fit right in with the locals.
~~~~~~~~~
.
**Unrelenting heat persists in Alberta, storm risk could fuel wildfire activity**
'More heat records are about to be broken in Alberta on Monday as an incoming storm may spark more wildfires in the region'
'While the heat isn’t quite as bad as the 40-degree readings next door in British Columbia, this is still a record-breaking spell of hot weather across Alberta.'
.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/record-breaking-heat-persists-in-alberta-fuels-wildfire-activity?wx_auto_reload=%3D%3D
~~~~
So much climate Doom, so little desire to list it all. Have some hi-lites
**25th July 2024 Today’s Round-Up of Climate News**
.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2024/07/25/25th-july-2024-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
Given https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/humans-barnyard-animals-and-circus/ I do not want many coming to my SS...
Humans are vile, stupid beasts... so I do not expect many of them to understand where I am coming from ...
If too many of them visit my channel ... that would mean I have gone mainstream and am a f789ing idiot.
We cannot have that ... please stay with the barnyard animals
The sanctions on Russia and China are helping Euroasia to prepare for the collapse of the Western markets!
About "Western states have built empires to compensate for the lack of resources at home... The process, however, has reached its logical endpoint":
you can read my summary of essentially the same arguments as made by S. Michaux, here:
https://mfioretti.substack.com/p/no-petroleum-and-minerals-no-problem