Just wait until we get the first solar-powered tanks. That will change everything.
But seriously, in some regions and conflicts you can already see where warfare will head as resources become scarcer.
Tanks and armored vehicles, once powerful in battle, are now more vulnerable because modern infantry has stronger weapons. Conflicts in the Middle East show that advanced anti-tank weapons, like RPGs and TOW missiles, can easily target these vehicles.
Drones have changed warfare by offering low-cost air support and surveillance, blurring traditional front lines and making it harder to hide troop movements.
In West Africa, insurgent groups like JNIM have adapted to drone surveillance by using motorcycles for quick, hard-to-track movement, allowing them to outmaneuver traditional armies in places like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Interesting to see Canada's energy use per person drop below 100,000 kWh for the first time since 1973. The decline isn't noticeable in terms of standard of living, assuming one is not homeless.
Also interesting that Iceland's energy use has dropped since 2018, following a meteoric rise that dwarfs other nations. Living among volcanoes has its benefits...
I've been following you for some time, and I mostly agree with your analysis regarding energy issues.
But to be honest, your pro-Russia bias disturbs me (you probably benefit from them or you belong to their troll mill). I live in the U.S.A., a democratic country (still), and also know what it is like to live in a dictatorship or in other democracies. While it is true that wars usually are not about freedoms or civil rights (I never bought into this), it makes a world of difference if you live in a democratic country like the U.S.A., Great Britain, France, Greece, Germany, Taiwan, Japan... or under a dictatorship regime like in Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Hungary, Turkey, North Korea (at different degrees: North Korea is certainly the worst), etc. This is not trivial at all, believe me, and one day before our elections here in the U.S., the prospect of living in a far-right dictatorship with Trump, as Russia became one with Putin, is scary, to say the least—despite all the flaws of our current system.
If Trump becomes president this time, this will speed up the geopolitical rearrangement of the world around three powerhouses with their own zones of influence; it is not what I wish, but I think it is going to happen, if not this year, then in four. Three hard-line dictatorships then: the end of any hope of freedom for the world (a nightmare for me).
1) The U.S.A., under a religious-oriented fascist rule, will remain for some time (until living conditions on earth really unravel) the major military power. Trump and his likely successor will have priorities: the country's close neighborhood (all of the Americas, the Pacific), and the Middle East with vast reserves of remaining conventional oil in comparison to the rest of the world (as it is also true for Russia).
2) China, where one party never relinquished absolute power through blood and extreme repression, has clear objectives: Taiwan, of course, but also later all its neighbors to its immediate east (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines) and south. China would absolutely invade Siberia if it could, but it can't since Russia is a major nuclear power.
3) Russia (Putin and the one who will follow) really cares about rebuilding the USSR, then the Warsaw Pact alliance, and probably further into a very weakened Europe (directly or through puppet governments) and the access to Russia's southern maritime ways. Neither China nor a Trump-led U.S. will challenge that. Trump made it already clear, and China has other priorities.
Africa will be parcelled out more or less based on these three powers' agreements (for its natural resources, of course). In this world, the only countries that will, maybe, not become vassals or annexed by these three powers will be the few other ones with nuclear power (Great Britain, France, Israel, India, Pakistan).
Given the climate heating exponential progress (which, I think, you underestimate in your analyses), this new order will change again, maybe even before it can be completed...when the global population is reduced to a number below one billion. Then the survivors will likely see the extreme fragmentation of these super powers.
It's beyond ridiculous to call Hungary a dictatorship. It's equally ridiculous to claim that Russia wants to rebuild the Warsaw Pact. That's paranoia combined with indoctrination by the present-day western propaganda. They have zero reason and zero means to do that.
Hungary is not a democracy anymore with Orban; it is a good example of how a democracy can slide without much notice into an authoritarian and extremely corrupt regime without having a bloodbath. Yet, I would agree, Hungary is not North Korea or China. Observation of facts is not paranoia. Here is, among many others, a more in-depth article about it in the New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-conservatives-around-the-world-have-embraced-hungarys-viktor-orban
About Russia, what I write is more prospective than what happened. Unfortunately, Russia which invaded and committed countless atrocities against Ukraine, a legitimate democracy, will win this war of attrition more or less quickly (depending on the election results in the U.S.A. tomorrow). Then, with the benediction of the U.S.A. and a weakening Europe (I agree with "B" on that), knowing the history and even what Putin himself professed many times, do you honestly think he will stop there?
You talk about indoctrination. The fact is that Western social media are banned in Russia, the press totally controlled by the regime, the opposition quelched in blood, but the opposite is not true. The Russian propaganda supporting what its regime wants people in the West to believe is very present in the free countries' social media (like substack).
Rebuilding the Warsaw Pact or the like? The same reason they had to build it in the first place: power and self interest. The greatest perceived danger to Russia and many other dictatorships is the very existence of a democratic world . And, again, they will certainly have the means to do that if the U.S.A becomes an ally in that endeavor, as Trump himself clearly indicated, Europe on the declining slope of deindustralization, without energy sources, and alone in this new world.
I do live in the U.S.A., still a democracy. Unfortunately, democracy eroded in this country (in a large part with D. Trump, but not only) and much needed reforms were not undertaken when they should have been. But an all-out fascist regime described in "Project 2025" drafted by the Heritage Foundation for Donald Trump would bring the country much closer to what Russia or China are today. Sorry, but I care about where I live and my freedoms.
Just wait until we get the first solar-powered tanks. That will change everything.
But seriously, in some regions and conflicts you can already see where warfare will head as resources become scarcer.
Tanks and armored vehicles, once powerful in battle, are now more vulnerable because modern infantry has stronger weapons. Conflicts in the Middle East show that advanced anti-tank weapons, like RPGs and TOW missiles, can easily target these vehicles.
Drones have changed warfare by offering low-cost air support and surveillance, blurring traditional front lines and making it harder to hide troop movements.
In West Africa, insurgent groups like JNIM have adapted to drone surveillance by using motorcycles for quick, hard-to-track movement, allowing them to outmaneuver traditional armies in places like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Expect more of that in the future.
Our inability to reason beyond war is a predicament that will ultimately throw us off the planet. It is probably for the best albeit we'll never know.
Interesting to see Canada's energy use per person drop below 100,000 kWh for the first time since 1973. The decline isn't noticeable in terms of standard of living, assuming one is not homeless.
Also interesting that Iceland's energy use has dropped since 2018, following a meteoric rise that dwarfs other nations. Living among volcanoes has its benefits...
I've been following you for some time, and I mostly agree with your analysis regarding energy issues.
But to be honest, your pro-Russia bias disturbs me (you probably benefit from them or you belong to their troll mill). I live in the U.S.A., a democratic country (still), and also know what it is like to live in a dictatorship or in other democracies. While it is true that wars usually are not about freedoms or civil rights (I never bought into this), it makes a world of difference if you live in a democratic country like the U.S.A., Great Britain, France, Greece, Germany, Taiwan, Japan... or under a dictatorship regime like in Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Hungary, Turkey, North Korea (at different degrees: North Korea is certainly the worst), etc. This is not trivial at all, believe me, and one day before our elections here in the U.S., the prospect of living in a far-right dictatorship with Trump, as Russia became one with Putin, is scary, to say the least—despite all the flaws of our current system.
If Trump becomes president this time, this will speed up the geopolitical rearrangement of the world around three powerhouses with their own zones of influence; it is not what I wish, but I think it is going to happen, if not this year, then in four. Three hard-line dictatorships then: the end of any hope of freedom for the world (a nightmare for me).
1) The U.S.A., under a religious-oriented fascist rule, will remain for some time (until living conditions on earth really unravel) the major military power. Trump and his likely successor will have priorities: the country's close neighborhood (all of the Americas, the Pacific), and the Middle East with vast reserves of remaining conventional oil in comparison to the rest of the world (as it is also true for Russia).
2) China, where one party never relinquished absolute power through blood and extreme repression, has clear objectives: Taiwan, of course, but also later all its neighbors to its immediate east (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines) and south. China would absolutely invade Siberia if it could, but it can't since Russia is a major nuclear power.
3) Russia (Putin and the one who will follow) really cares about rebuilding the USSR, then the Warsaw Pact alliance, and probably further into a very weakened Europe (directly or through puppet governments) and the access to Russia's southern maritime ways. Neither China nor a Trump-led U.S. will challenge that. Trump made it already clear, and China has other priorities.
Africa will be parcelled out more or less based on these three powers' agreements (for its natural resources, of course). In this world, the only countries that will, maybe, not become vassals or annexed by these three powers will be the few other ones with nuclear power (Great Britain, France, Israel, India, Pakistan).
Given the climate heating exponential progress (which, I think, you underestimate in your analyses), this new order will change again, maybe even before it can be completed...when the global population is reduced to a number below one billion. Then the survivors will likely see the extreme fragmentation of these super powers.
It's beyond ridiculous to call Hungary a dictatorship. It's equally ridiculous to claim that Russia wants to rebuild the Warsaw Pact. That's paranoia combined with indoctrination by the present-day western propaganda. They have zero reason and zero means to do that.
The rest is debatable.
Hungary is not a democracy anymore with Orban; it is a good example of how a democracy can slide without much notice into an authoritarian and extremely corrupt regime without having a bloodbath. Yet, I would agree, Hungary is not North Korea or China. Observation of facts is not paranoia. Here is, among many others, a more in-depth article about it in the New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-conservatives-around-the-world-have-embraced-hungarys-viktor-orban
About Russia, what I write is more prospective than what happened. Unfortunately, Russia which invaded and committed countless atrocities against Ukraine, a legitimate democracy, will win this war of attrition more or less quickly (depending on the election results in the U.S.A. tomorrow). Then, with the benediction of the U.S.A. and a weakening Europe (I agree with "B" on that), knowing the history and even what Putin himself professed many times, do you honestly think he will stop there?
You talk about indoctrination. The fact is that Western social media are banned in Russia, the press totally controlled by the regime, the opposition quelched in blood, but the opposite is not true. The Russian propaganda supporting what its regime wants people in the West to believe is very present in the free countries' social media (like substack).
Rebuilding the Warsaw Pact or the like? The same reason they had to build it in the first place: power and self interest. The greatest perceived danger to Russia and many other dictatorships is the very existence of a democratic world . And, again, they will certainly have the means to do that if the U.S.A becomes an ally in that endeavor, as Trump himself clearly indicated, Europe on the declining slope of deindustralization, without energy sources, and alone in this new world.
Usa a democracy??? Hahaha hahaha. By 2024 that's a sad joke. Keep living in lah lah land.
I do live in the U.S.A., still a democracy. Unfortunately, democracy eroded in this country (in a large part with D. Trump, but not only) and much needed reforms were not undertaken when they should have been. But an all-out fascist regime described in "Project 2025" drafted by the Heritage Foundation for Donald Trump would bring the country much closer to what Russia or China are today. Sorry, but I care about where I live and my freedoms.
Thank you, fine article.