I don't expect the suddenly part to arrive in 2050...
The Precarious State of the Shale Oil Industry:
Try to get your head around the idea that by 2027, US tight oil production might be 12 MM BOPD, not the 9 MM it is now, which is what cheerleaders say it will be, and that means we'll actually have to find and extract 12 MM BOPD... before we can ever grow the new 3 MM.
Man, that is a slew of new wells! Thats gonna take like...four times the HZ wells we've already drilled in the US.
Unfortunately Eddy the Normies of the world can't quite think through energy cost of energy, even if they get to the 12million they don't realise that the net energy will probably be less than the 9million currently produced. We are already at 1 in 6 when it goes to 1 in 5 it's game over
Great summary article B. I’m curious, with the ~5 years (estimated of course), what are you and other readers doing with your time to either brace or adapt? I hesitate to say “prepare” as nobody can truly prepare for this comprehensively.
Fossil fuel extraction is the death of us. Questions? We are 3,000 times more populous than were our ecologically balanced self-sustaining migratory Hunter-Gatherer ancestral clan/bands, and all thanks to sedentary grain/crop agriculture and fossil fuel extraction. What could go wrong? Everything?
You're getting there. But you're still missing one important factor. The financial system. There are debts, globally, to the tune of hundreds of trillions of dollars. When it becomes clear that those can never be repaid, the banks, all of them, will fail all at once (you've seen how financial panics play out in the past).
How do you think this fantastically complicated machine that everyone on the planet depends on for just about everything will behave without banks?
It's going to fall to pieces like a collapsing house of cards. All at once.
You've gone from this taking multiple decades, to maybe a decade. But in places like London, or New York, or Mexico City, it'll be over in a few months at most.
The powers that be have been holding this thing back for a few decades now. Fracking etc. saved our bacon for a while. That game is nearly done and the longer they've been delaying the inevitable, the faster that inevitable will unfold, once it becomes no longer physically impossible to keep delaying.
A few places might hold it together for a few more years, but not for many. Things are far too interconnected for more than that to be possible.
Personally, judging by that Exxon graph, I'm leaning more towards 2027 than 2030.
The banks won't all fail because we can print our way out of debt overhang . Stagflation is the future . The banks have already failed the Treasury markets are pure distortion from printing to keep the whole thing liquid . It's all just nonsense at this point but it all comes down to stagflationary period hitting hard soon
That'll only work for so long. Even if the banks do hold it together, industrial civilisation is a vastly complex thing. Designed only to grow. Sooner or later something critical will break. 15% pa decline in petroleum will topple something or another. Do a search on cascading systems failure. this mess is a system of systems, everything interdependent. The more complex, the more fragile. Once that critical thing breaks, the whole mess will come down. We were hours away from the cash machines shutting down in 2007-08 The bailouts stopped it.
"As we are getting closer and closer to that ominous “sudden” phase — kicking into motion around 2030"
My guess is we'll head over the cliff a little sooner as the oil exporting nations will cut exports. This will kickstart the collapse. Probably sooner than 2030.
First resource wars will ramp up. Countries with power will not sit around & watch their citizens starve. Can you imagine a politician not using their available power to put their countries first?
I would love some help playing out some likely next steps. The financial system will collapse, savings will be gone there is no where safe to store money. What will happen to debt? If you own a mortgage?
I have read some of the brutish predictions. I also believe, or would like to, that there could be pockets of community and coherence.
I don't expect the suddenly part to arrive in 2050...
The Precarious State of the Shale Oil Industry:
Try to get your head around the idea that by 2027, US tight oil production might be 12 MM BOPD, not the 9 MM it is now, which is what cheerleaders say it will be, and that means we'll actually have to find and extract 12 MM BOPD... before we can ever grow the new 3 MM.
Man, that is a slew of new wells! Thats gonna take like...four times the HZ wells we've already drilled in the US.
Where? https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/the-hamster-wheel
Shale is the only growing source of oil... when this turns down ... the financial system will implode
It looks like he does say 2030 is the rough kickoff, per the first paragraph:
“As we are getting closer and closer to that ominous “sudden” phase — kicking into motion around 2030”
Unfortunately Eddy the Normies of the world can't quite think through energy cost of energy, even if they get to the 12million they don't realise that the net energy will probably be less than the 9million currently produced. We are already at 1 in 6 when it goes to 1 in 5 it's game over
Great summary article B. I’m curious, with the ~5 years (estimated of course), what are you and other readers doing with your time to either brace or adapt? I hesitate to say “prepare” as nobody can truly prepare for this comprehensively.
Fossil fuel extraction is the death of us. Questions? We are 3,000 times more populous than were our ecologically balanced self-sustaining migratory Hunter-Gatherer ancestral clan/bands, and all thanks to sedentary grain/crop agriculture and fossil fuel extraction. What could go wrong? Everything?
You're getting there. But you're still missing one important factor. The financial system. There are debts, globally, to the tune of hundreds of trillions of dollars. When it becomes clear that those can never be repaid, the banks, all of them, will fail all at once (you've seen how financial panics play out in the past).
How do you think this fantastically complicated machine that everyone on the planet depends on for just about everything will behave without banks?
It's going to fall to pieces like a collapsing house of cards. All at once.
You've gone from this taking multiple decades, to maybe a decade. But in places like London, or New York, or Mexico City, it'll be over in a few months at most.
The powers that be have been holding this thing back for a few decades now. Fracking etc. saved our bacon for a while. That game is nearly done and the longer they've been delaying the inevitable, the faster that inevitable will unfold, once it becomes no longer physically impossible to keep delaying.
A few places might hold it together for a few more years, but not for many. Things are far too interconnected for more than that to be possible.
Personally, judging by that Exxon graph, I'm leaning more towards 2027 than 2030.
Joe
The banks won't all fail because we can print our way out of debt overhang . Stagflation is the future . The banks have already failed the Treasury markets are pure distortion from printing to keep the whole thing liquid . It's all just nonsense at this point but it all comes down to stagflationary period hitting hard soon
That'll only work for so long. Even if the banks do hold it together, industrial civilisation is a vastly complex thing. Designed only to grow. Sooner or later something critical will break. 15% pa decline in petroleum will topple something or another. Do a search on cascading systems failure. this mess is a system of systems, everything interdependent. The more complex, the more fragile. Once that critical thing breaks, the whole mess will come down. We were hours away from the cash machines shutting down in 2007-08 The bailouts stopped it.
"As we are getting closer and closer to that ominous “sudden” phase — kicking into motion around 2030"
My guess is we'll head over the cliff a little sooner as the oil exporting nations will cut exports. This will kickstart the collapse. Probably sooner than 2030.
First resource wars will ramp up. Countries with power will not sit around & watch their citizens starve. Can you imagine a politician not using their available power to put their countries first?
Thank you B🙏
I would love some help playing out some likely next steps. The financial system will collapse, savings will be gone there is no where safe to store money. What will happen to debt? If you own a mortgage?
I have read some of the brutish predictions. I also believe, or would like to, that there could be pockets of community and coherence.