Global steel production has peaked in 2021 and it's stagnating ever since. Is this just another minor hiccup or an ominous sign of a much bigger crisis in the making?
In 2019...I recall monitoring various data points and seeing a major problem with global auto sales... then a massive reverse repo occurred near the end of the year... and I recall thinking -- something is breaking here...
I later read this... which confirmed what I was thinking:
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression.
Then of course Covid ... absolutely enormous stimulus followed ... but the herd was not spooked ... cuz Covid was a nice excuse... but of course the Vaccines followed... which set the stage for what comes when they are about to completely lose control of the situation
It amazes me that the UK and Europe -- the dirtiest shirts along with China --- are able to hold things together... forced de-industrialization and stagnation are a recipe for a deflationary implosion...
Looking at the UK and their continued ability to use more debt to paper this over.. is now coming into question....
If institutional money refuses to fund debt that they do not have the means to pay back... let alone service...
Peak oil, peak steel, peak democracy, have we reached peak hubris yet? Or are humans gonna keep on keeping on until there's only peak radioactive charcoal to defend?
Actual GDP isn't increasing, government salaries, benefits, and employment numbers have been increasing in most western countries, which pushes it up...And the claimed inflation numbers are unrealistically low...With real inflation numbers, I doubt the US has had any growth lately...
At least in civilised countries, "Govt salaries" CAN actually be a measure of real economic growth - things like state education, single-payer State healthcare systems, produce real benefits such as a better educated and healthier population.
As long as that is where the Govt revenues is going, rather to corporate boondoggles pretending to do those things, as in the uncivilised countries.
I totes agree with regards to the inflation figures though, massively massaged to be completely useless.
Well, that is the inevitable effect of what is called neoliberalism, isn't it?
'Privatising' to the bone, and then imposing a deliberate neoFeudal mentality, is not conducive to a developing economy/society.
When your entire economy and society is directed towards "Making the rich richer", the only thing that "Trickles down" is diarrhoea down gluttonous oligarchs fat legs.
In addition, nearly all gains in the stock market are basically illusions created by stock buy backs and other financial chicanery that resulted from the FED printing endless money to any bank that requests it.
Actually... the reason for all the stimulus was to offset the impact on GDP of ever increasing energy production costs.
The Beginning of the End
JUNE 13, 2003 - There is increasing evidence that massive economic stimulus — monetary, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and fiscal, thanks to the president and supply-side minded lawmakers — is taking hold. The magnitude of the policy turnaround, which caps a constructive, multi-year reflation process, should overwhelm the economic negatives — including the drag from expensive oil and poor finances at the state- and local-government levels.
Expensive oil and its impact on other energy costs remains a concern.
The current level of U.S. monetary stimulus is massive. Real interest rates have fallen 5.2 percent from December 2000 to March 2003, reaching -1.2 percent. A swing of this magnitude may be historical.
Not a bad article, and I don't necessarily disagree, but out political system is vulnerable to the short-term profit motives of the oligarchs who ripped control of the levers of government from out 'aristocrats' not but a few years after our founding, so while there might be - and probably is - a strategic motive for fed printing, the business interests have definitely worsened the situation by using it for their short sighted benefit.
Oil is $75 per barrel at the moment, but that's only $40 in year 2000 dollars. This might be a declining world economy brought on by an aging population, or something else (causation is hard), but it doesn't much look like an oil supply crunch to me
If there is less demand because the economy is failing, prices push down. Because prices push down, there is less incentive for the oil industry to invest in oil fields. Without the ability to bring new sources on line when needed, kneecaps any potential for growth. The reality of the situation is hidden in the non-classical economics.
For more information, check out Tverberg's excellent ourfiniteworld blog.
Exactly. As the post highlights, we see depletion-induced increases in the energy required for continued resource and energy extraction; and suggests that steel production is a good marker for the subsequent contraction.
What I think Timothy is pointing out, is that the whole "World economy cannot afford the $100/barrel as in the OPEC crisis" has become severely out of date, simple inflation has pushed that number up to todays $200.
Which indicates oil has relatively fallen in price.
Classically, that would mean that as the oil price rises, the hard-to-reach sources become economical - and there is slack still.
Where I think this dilemma meets the road, is the process of financialisation, which was only in the infancy relatively speaking during that first crisis. Neolib financialisation hollows out the real economy, and makes it considerably more brittle. There is less wiggle room for a 'crash'/price hike than back those decades ago.
Needless to say, the more we pump though, the more we cook the planet.
Israel cannot touch Iran alone. The recent attack - which included MANY non-Israeli airforces, incl US, UK and EU warplanes - got absolutely nowhere against Iran's integrated airdefences. They managed to blow up the sum total of one 1950s SAM installation in over 200 sorties, and their supposed "Stealth" aircraft were forced to disengage after they were locked onto.
Those bombs are for use on civilian refugee tents, Lebanese civilian high rises, the Israelis typical victims - civilians.
To successfully attack Iran would require the full force of the US military, incl nuclear strikes on Yemen to prevent them from sinking the carriers coming to strike.
This would not be a target like the already heavily destroyed Iraq.
The Israeli leadership, despite all the media bluster, now understand this. So does the Pentagon.
And that was BEFORE Russia signed the military assistance deal.
The US would literally destroy itself to attack Iran. Of course, the Zionists would be fine with that, the DNC were completely on board.
And the inevitable result of such an attack - the entire west Asian oil production would be hit hard - would be global depression, let alone China's economic effects.
I doubt that is on the cards, at least for the next four years.
Finally, someone who gets it - you don't know how many arguments I have had with people who assume that Iran is just a Shawarma stand with a few ballistic missiles that would topple over like a poorly run, warlord operated region of whatever -stan fits your fantasy.
Even now people believe that Iran's strikes 'did nothing' and that everything was intercepted and Iran has lost and blah blah blah. It takes just a couple of widely repeated reports from the IDF or the Pentagon in the very same media no-one trusts (or so they say) and despite what can be seen with actual video, everyone believes that Iran is paper - not a paper tiger, just paper.
Iran clearly can make pinpoint strikes on the IDF's air and missile defense warning systems like the radar array for Arrow, as well as dodge interceptors with their hypersonic systems that are not even the new ones, but you'd think that Iran just hit piles of dirt hundreds of meters from anything that could reasonably be described as a target, just because Israel said so.
I am of the opinion that America - with or without nukes - would defeat Iran in a 1 v. 1 scenario, but the aftermath would re-define a pyrrhic victory for all of history. All American bases in MENA would go up in smoke, all of our naval assets in the area would also be gone with the possible exception of our submarines, and also likely all American flagged tankers and cargo ships would sink. The American empire would literally be over within a night, and if Israel tried anything they would end up completely flattened again with the possible exception of their submarines.
And that is just Iran alone - not counting Yemen or Hezbollah or whatever remains in Syria.
While Iran's AD systems and jamming tech are not perfect, they have some of the best engineers in the world and have spent an enormous amount of wealth and manpower being able to defend themselves while also reaping the benefits of working with China and Russia.
It is quite simply impossible to take out Iran with a conventional war - and that is not even counting a land invasion which would probably be impossible. And yet, many and American almost salivates at the prospect of fighting Iran, all because the same media they claim to distrust tells them that, "Iman bad!"
My only real complaint is that no one from the AoR has done anything to truly hurt Israel: I do understand the long game, and will not question that wisdom, but Iran or Hezbollah or someone should have taken out one of their airbases and also crushed their fuel/energy processing facilities near Lebanon, but they just can't bring themselves to do it.
The only thing Americans would understand would be a carrier sinking near the coast of Yemen, but for whatever the reason no one will pull the trigger on that and are just content to let Israel and America remain in the driver's seat, and I think that has been a categorical mistake and yet not one anyone seems willing to rectify.
Yep, I have the same experience. I've been to Iran twice though, travelled the country from Turkey to Pakistan, and then back again overland. It's easily the most civilised country I've been to, and I lived in Scandinavia for a while.
Only a fool writes off the Persians, they are fully aware of their exceptional history.
I suspect they are playing the 'Long game' because they know that only the full force of the US Empire could possibly defeat them militarily, and that the Empire is fast on the way down. And they are fully aligned with the new rising powers. Patience works in their favour.
They let their enemies make the first moves.
TBF, I think Raisi was more activist, and this new guy - not so much. He is still learning on the job, and does not yet have the required cynicism towards the Western powers, or the respect that the Iranian 'deep state' deserves for keeping the country together in the face of decades of western interventions.
The loss of the magnificent Soleimani hurt them considerably. He would have made a towering President. A true, and extremely rare, 'Lion of Persia'.
It's quite profoundly unsettling how many in the West still read legacy media and believe the outright lies.
BTW, according to some accounts, the Yemenis HAVE hit not one, but two of the US carriers, forcing both to retreat for repairs while denying the invincible US Navy could ever take damage from a country with no navy.
Hitting a moving ship with ballistic missiles is no mean feat, especially without access to real-time satellite targeting data.
If a country like Yemen can do this, even with some Iranian help, it's game over for Western 'force projection' from the seas.
I definitely think it is more likely than not true that Ansarallah managed to hit our carriers, but the extent of the damage is speculation: I personally think a few have gotten close enough to spread debris over the flight deck and damage an airframe or two, but lacking photos or a report I have a hard time believing they actually hit a carrier and did any meaningful damage, because right now with the political chaos ruling the day, you can't keep anyone quite about anything.
It is also very true though that the capabilities of Ansarallah represent an existential threat to the carrier as a platform at least as it exists now - unless EW becomes so effective that you can fry anything coming at you from a mile or more away the platform itself - no matter the navy - is as doomed as the battleship. With Iranian help they definitely have the means to sink any warship going through either the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, but I think the most effective platform would be a semi-submersible underwater drone: a 200kg warhead to any part of a hull would cripple a ship, but that is all ultimately speculation.
I do think that if things pop off again, Ansarallah / Tehran have to sink a carrier or America will just not back off.
They probably hit the carriers to demonstrate that they COULD - and I'd have loved to see the jubilation when they succeeded. As for damage caused, you're probably right. But then, the US carriers are apparently so crap, it doesn't take that much to knock them out of a fight. Half the time, they can't even launch planes during peacetime.
And don't get me started on the RN new carriers, ffs.
As others have pointed out, it's entirely possible to just overload the AD on the carrier group through saturation - and then the frigates have to return to port to be reloaded. IF there are AD interceptors available to be installed.
And IF there is a naval base nearby in west Asia to go back to.
The Russian navy has learned to its cost the potential of the new water/underwater drones, and they are at the cutting edge of anti-drone research.
However, the latest drones/missiles they are producing are unaffected by EW - fx, they are using aerial drones with both long-distance fibre-optic cables, and AI systems, that both ignore EW jamming.
Once/if the AoR gets their hands on that level of technology and more importantly experience to use them, we're on a new game board.
Interestingly, the Syrian jihadis had Ukrainian mercenaries with them, utilising the latest drone developments, which absolutely massacred the unprepared Syrian troops - a lesson for anyone watching carefully with traditional militaries that they are now severely out of date.
Also of note in that regard is that when the Israeli tanks moved into Syria, they did NOT have 'cope cages' around them. Sitting ducks for the latest drones - which clearly then Hez is as yet unequipped and trained for.
When Hez and Hamas realise this gap, and get the "cheap drones" and the experience to use them properly, Israel will be swimming in military shit.
Of course, the Israelis will develop drone swarms, but their kink is depopulating civilian untermensch - whereas Hez and Hamas is about defeating the IDF's expensive equipment and demilitarising Israel. (The denazification can come later).
A lot of blood will flow, especially civilian blood. But the end result is obvious from that equation.
i have been to Yemen ... it did not strike me as a high tech country with weapons capable of targeting a US war ship... and now it is a collapsed failed state... even less so
How do you know they attacked a US ship - did you see it - or did you hear about it on cnnbbc...
The same cnnbbc that continues to insist Covid Death Shots are safe and effective..
Yemen is not a "Collapsed failed state", it is an ancient proud society that survived over a decade of US genocidal attack, based from Arabia and UAE.
As for "Whether they can attack US military ships", I think the historical record over the past 2 years demonstrates amply that ability. They have not only defeated the US Navy, but the total NATO navies as well.
Not bad for a small country that doesn't even have a navy itself, I'm sure you'll agree.
There is still no trade to the genocidal Nazis in Israel through the Red Sea.
And on two occasions, two US carrier battle groups have reported engaging with Yemeni attacks, while the US (Naturally) denies receiving any damage, the carriers themselves withdrew almost immediately afterwards, and there is considerable evidence that the Yemenis DID successfully damage the carriers themselves - such as one occasion the carrier in question imposing a no-landing restriction, including the mail flights!, while it steamed off to a US port that had repair facilities. This move was not in the scheduled calendar.
I recall the damage the Argentinians did to the RN during the Falklands conflict, with just a handful of air-launched missiles. That was 30+ years ago.
Those missiles were 1950s, and not even sonic, let alone hypersonic such as the Yemenis have developed.
The US itself is unable to develop successful hypersonics.
"Failed state"?
Not as big a fail as the US and its vassals.
And no, I do not watch MSDNC, or any US corporate news chains, any more than I regard McDs as edible food.
yemen is fucked - when I was there just prior to this war kicking off... I met with the head of economic affairs for the region who was in Yemen...
He said - and I quote - over coffee in the Movenpick hotel - 'Yemen is running out of oil -- they need energy to desalinate water and pump up up to elevation where most of the people live... so basically (and I quote) Yemen is fucked.
Yet you believe that a country that is completely fucked is attacked US war ships hahaha... now that's a good one
How bout those 'Safe and Effective' vaccines... oh and how about WMD.... hahaha
Barnyard animals are stupid and very gullible... if cnnbbc tells them it's true... they don't question .. even if they know cnnbbc is in the business of lying as is required by the Ministry of Truth
hahahaha ... attacking US warships... like Tonkin right?
It looks like Trump may be a little more humane. And the 'techbros' behind him are more interested in their own wealth than the US Empire's psychotic plans.
I doubt the Israelis have much interest in dying for America - they are simply not as dumb as Ukrainians.
It feels like collapse is close, especially with a global trade war looming, though I suppose that could paper over the problems for a while with reduced demand.
The end of growth is here, says B. But he doesn't drive it home. The Energy Descent Future is upon us (David Holmgren's term). And then there's the tipping points, a la Rockstrom and co. And the ones he doesn't mention like methane clathrates. Ana Makierva)
On the plus side, Walter Jehne's soil carbon sponge and the land use impact that twins with GHG emissions as cause of warming but instead of GHG fungibility, LandUse is local and stays put. Benefits stay put. Jehne has calculated how fast the 1.2kJ/m2 of excess heat can be absorbed by green vegetation of all types.
Too many humans, using too many natural resources, and producing too much pollution, including heat and GHGs. Last one out, turn off the lights.
Tim Watkins takes us on a tour of the coal face... a real world look at the impact of affordable energy depletion...
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/01/30/theres-a-big-reckoning-coming/
In 2019...I recall monitoring various data points and seeing a major problem with global auto sales... then a massive reverse repo occurred near the end of the year... and I recall thinking -- something is breaking here...
I later read this... which confirmed what I was thinking:
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression.
Then of course Covid ... absolutely enormous stimulus followed ... but the herd was not spooked ... cuz Covid was a nice excuse... but of course the Vaccines followed... which set the stage for what comes when they are about to completely lose control of the situation
They do NOT want 8B+ starving and eating each other.. rather https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-extinction-plan-uep
It amazes me that the UK and Europe -- the dirtiest shirts along with China --- are able to hold things together... forced de-industrialization and stagnation are a recipe for a deflationary implosion...
Looking at the UK and their continued ability to use more debt to paper this over.. is now coming into question....
If institutional money refuses to fund debt that they do not have the means to pay back... let alone service...
Do the Central Banks secretly step in as a last ditch effort to prevent a key pillar from collapsing? https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/financial-system-supply-chain-cross
Whatever it takes... cuz the alternative is so much worse
Ruh roh
Peak oil, peak steel, peak democracy, have we reached peak hubris yet? Or are humans gonna keep on keeping on until there's only peak radioactive charcoal to defend?
An excellent article yet again.
A sobering and eye opening article. Thanks!
I saw recently (maybe here actually) a graph showing the concrete output during the last decades and its stagnation for a few years now.
I guess it follow exactly the same logic. (Even more so that concrete is most of the time used in combination with steel)
Actual GDP isn't increasing, government salaries, benefits, and employment numbers have been increasing in most western countries, which pushes it up...And the claimed inflation numbers are unrealistically low...With real inflation numbers, I doubt the US has had any growth lately...
At least in civilised countries, "Govt salaries" CAN actually be a measure of real economic growth - things like state education, single-payer State healthcare systems, produce real benefits such as a better educated and healthier population.
As long as that is where the Govt revenues is going, rather to corporate boondoggles pretending to do those things, as in the uncivilised countries.
I totes agree with regards to the inflation figures though, massively massaged to be completely useless.
Unfortunately, all those good results from government spending aren't happening in the US, or any western country that I know of....
Well, that is the inevitable effect of what is called neoliberalism, isn't it?
'Privatising' to the bone, and then imposing a deliberate neoFeudal mentality, is not conducive to a developing economy/society.
When your entire economy and society is directed towards "Making the rich richer", the only thing that "Trickles down" is diarrhoea down gluttonous oligarchs fat legs.
In addition, nearly all gains in the stock market are basically illusions created by stock buy backs and other financial chicanery that resulted from the FED printing endless money to any bank that requests it.
Actually... the reason for all the stimulus was to offset the impact on GDP of ever increasing energy production costs.
The Beginning of the End
JUNE 13, 2003 - There is increasing evidence that massive economic stimulus — monetary, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and fiscal, thanks to the president and supply-side minded lawmakers — is taking hold. The magnitude of the policy turnaround, which caps a constructive, multi-year reflation process, should overwhelm the economic negatives — including the drag from expensive oil and poor finances at the state- and local-government levels.
Expensive oil and its impact on other energy costs remains a concern.
The current level of U.S. monetary stimulus is massive. Real interest rates have fallen 5.2 percent from December 2000 to March 2003, reaching -1.2 percent. A swing of this magnitude may be historical.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/207227/reversal-fortune-david-malpass
Not a bad article, and I don't necessarily disagree, but out political system is vulnerable to the short-term profit motives of the oligarchs who ripped control of the levers of government from out 'aristocrats' not but a few years after our founding, so while there might be - and probably is - a strategic motive for fed printing, the business interests have definitely worsened the situation by using it for their short sighted benefit.
Oil is $75 per barrel at the moment, but that's only $40 in year 2000 dollars. This might be a declining world economy brought on by an aging population, or something else (causation is hard), but it doesn't much look like an oil supply crunch to me
If there is less demand because the economy is failing, prices push down. Because prices push down, there is less incentive for the oil industry to invest in oil fields. Without the ability to bring new sources on line when needed, kneecaps any potential for growth. The reality of the situation is hidden in the non-classical economics.
For more information, check out Tverberg's excellent ourfiniteworld blog.
Exactly. As the post highlights, we see depletion-induced increases in the energy required for continued resource and energy extraction; and suggests that steel production is a good marker for the subsequent contraction.
What I think Timothy is pointing out, is that the whole "World economy cannot afford the $100/barrel as in the OPEC crisis" has become severely out of date, simple inflation has pushed that number up to todays $200.
Which indicates oil has relatively fallen in price.
Classically, that would mean that as the oil price rises, the hard-to-reach sources become economical - and there is slack still.
Where I think this dilemma meets the road, is the process of financialisation, which was only in the infancy relatively speaking during that first crisis. Neolib financialisation hollows out the real economy, and makes it considerably more brittle. There is less wiggle room for a 'crash'/price hike than back those decades ago.
Needless to say, the more we pump though, the more we cook the planet.
Gordian's knot.
Gail knows her stuff. (y)
AI and all the data storage centres demand lotsa energy... As they are central to the
global digital prison being built they will have top claim on all declining energies...
Economies may be de-industrialising, but, as depicted in George Orwell's "1984", The
Economy barely exists, except to service the total control grid , which must be
maintained above all else... "Bugger The economy ! Bugger Living Standards !"
And Trump's "Energy Emergency" can be stretched to bombing Iran's underground
military facilities with the bunker busting 2000 lb bombs being delivered to and stored
in Israel, to disrupt the flow of oil to USA ENEMY #1, China, Iran's main oil customer...
Israel cannot touch Iran alone. The recent attack - which included MANY non-Israeli airforces, incl US, UK and EU warplanes - got absolutely nowhere against Iran's integrated airdefences. They managed to blow up the sum total of one 1950s SAM installation in over 200 sorties, and their supposed "Stealth" aircraft were forced to disengage after they were locked onto.
Those bombs are for use on civilian refugee tents, Lebanese civilian high rises, the Israelis typical victims - civilians.
To successfully attack Iran would require the full force of the US military, incl nuclear strikes on Yemen to prevent them from sinking the carriers coming to strike.
This would not be a target like the already heavily destroyed Iraq.
The Israeli leadership, despite all the media bluster, now understand this. So does the Pentagon.
And that was BEFORE Russia signed the military assistance deal.
The US would literally destroy itself to attack Iran. Of course, the Zionists would be fine with that, the DNC were completely on board.
And the inevitable result of such an attack - the entire west Asian oil production would be hit hard - would be global depression, let alone China's economic effects.
I doubt that is on the cards, at least for the next four years.
I agree with the data-centre argument though. But the DeepSeek model has shown it can be done with considerably less energy, bear in mind.
Finally, someone who gets it - you don't know how many arguments I have had with people who assume that Iran is just a Shawarma stand with a few ballistic missiles that would topple over like a poorly run, warlord operated region of whatever -stan fits your fantasy.
Even now people believe that Iran's strikes 'did nothing' and that everything was intercepted and Iran has lost and blah blah blah. It takes just a couple of widely repeated reports from the IDF or the Pentagon in the very same media no-one trusts (or so they say) and despite what can be seen with actual video, everyone believes that Iran is paper - not a paper tiger, just paper.
Iran clearly can make pinpoint strikes on the IDF's air and missile defense warning systems like the radar array for Arrow, as well as dodge interceptors with their hypersonic systems that are not even the new ones, but you'd think that Iran just hit piles of dirt hundreds of meters from anything that could reasonably be described as a target, just because Israel said so.
I am of the opinion that America - with or without nukes - would defeat Iran in a 1 v. 1 scenario, but the aftermath would re-define a pyrrhic victory for all of history. All American bases in MENA would go up in smoke, all of our naval assets in the area would also be gone with the possible exception of our submarines, and also likely all American flagged tankers and cargo ships would sink. The American empire would literally be over within a night, and if Israel tried anything they would end up completely flattened again with the possible exception of their submarines.
And that is just Iran alone - not counting Yemen or Hezbollah or whatever remains in Syria.
While Iran's AD systems and jamming tech are not perfect, they have some of the best engineers in the world and have spent an enormous amount of wealth and manpower being able to defend themselves while also reaping the benefits of working with China and Russia.
It is quite simply impossible to take out Iran with a conventional war - and that is not even counting a land invasion which would probably be impossible. And yet, many and American almost salivates at the prospect of fighting Iran, all because the same media they claim to distrust tells them that, "Iman bad!"
My only real complaint is that no one from the AoR has done anything to truly hurt Israel: I do understand the long game, and will not question that wisdom, but Iran or Hezbollah or someone should have taken out one of their airbases and also crushed their fuel/energy processing facilities near Lebanon, but they just can't bring themselves to do it.
The only thing Americans would understand would be a carrier sinking near the coast of Yemen, but for whatever the reason no one will pull the trigger on that and are just content to let Israel and America remain in the driver's seat, and I think that has been a categorical mistake and yet not one anyone seems willing to rectify.
Yep, I have the same experience. I've been to Iran twice though, travelled the country from Turkey to Pakistan, and then back again overland. It's easily the most civilised country I've been to, and I lived in Scandinavia for a while.
Only a fool writes off the Persians, they are fully aware of their exceptional history.
I suspect they are playing the 'Long game' because they know that only the full force of the US Empire could possibly defeat them militarily, and that the Empire is fast on the way down. And they are fully aligned with the new rising powers. Patience works in their favour.
They let their enemies make the first moves.
TBF, I think Raisi was more activist, and this new guy - not so much. He is still learning on the job, and does not yet have the required cynicism towards the Western powers, or the respect that the Iranian 'deep state' deserves for keeping the country together in the face of decades of western interventions.
The loss of the magnificent Soleimani hurt them considerably. He would have made a towering President. A true, and extremely rare, 'Lion of Persia'.
It's quite profoundly unsettling how many in the West still read legacy media and believe the outright lies.
BTW, according to some accounts, the Yemenis HAVE hit not one, but two of the US carriers, forcing both to retreat for repairs while denying the invincible US Navy could ever take damage from a country with no navy.
Hitting a moving ship with ballistic missiles is no mean feat, especially without access to real-time satellite targeting data.
If a country like Yemen can do this, even with some Iranian help, it's game over for Western 'force projection' from the seas.
I definitely think it is more likely than not true that Ansarallah managed to hit our carriers, but the extent of the damage is speculation: I personally think a few have gotten close enough to spread debris over the flight deck and damage an airframe or two, but lacking photos or a report I have a hard time believing they actually hit a carrier and did any meaningful damage, because right now with the political chaos ruling the day, you can't keep anyone quite about anything.
It is also very true though that the capabilities of Ansarallah represent an existential threat to the carrier as a platform at least as it exists now - unless EW becomes so effective that you can fry anything coming at you from a mile or more away the platform itself - no matter the navy - is as doomed as the battleship. With Iranian help they definitely have the means to sink any warship going through either the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, but I think the most effective platform would be a semi-submersible underwater drone: a 200kg warhead to any part of a hull would cripple a ship, but that is all ultimately speculation.
I do think that if things pop off again, Ansarallah / Tehran have to sink a carrier or America will just not back off.
They probably hit the carriers to demonstrate that they COULD - and I'd have loved to see the jubilation when they succeeded. As for damage caused, you're probably right. But then, the US carriers are apparently so crap, it doesn't take that much to knock them out of a fight. Half the time, they can't even launch planes during peacetime.
And don't get me started on the RN new carriers, ffs.
As others have pointed out, it's entirely possible to just overload the AD on the carrier group through saturation - and then the frigates have to return to port to be reloaded. IF there are AD interceptors available to be installed.
And IF there is a naval base nearby in west Asia to go back to.
The Russian navy has learned to its cost the potential of the new water/underwater drones, and they are at the cutting edge of anti-drone research.
However, the latest drones/missiles they are producing are unaffected by EW - fx, they are using aerial drones with both long-distance fibre-optic cables, and AI systems, that both ignore EW jamming.
Once/if the AoR gets their hands on that level of technology and more importantly experience to use them, we're on a new game board.
Interestingly, the Syrian jihadis had Ukrainian mercenaries with them, utilising the latest drone developments, which absolutely massacred the unprepared Syrian troops - a lesson for anyone watching carefully with traditional militaries that they are now severely out of date.
Also of note in that regard is that when the Israeli tanks moved into Syria, they did NOT have 'cope cages' around them. Sitting ducks for the latest drones - which clearly then Hez is as yet unequipped and trained for.
When Hez and Hamas realise this gap, and get the "cheap drones" and the experience to use them properly, Israel will be swimming in military shit.
Of course, the Israelis will develop drone swarms, but their kink is depopulating civilian untermensch - whereas Hez and Hamas is about defeating the IDF's expensive equipment and demilitarising Israel. (The denazification can come later).
A lot of blood will flow, especially civilian blood. But the end result is obvious from that equation.
i have been to Yemen ... it did not strike me as a high tech country with weapons capable of targeting a US war ship... and now it is a collapsed failed state... even less so
How do you know they attacked a US ship - did you see it - or did you hear about it on cnnbbc...
The same cnnbbc that continues to insist Covid Death Shots are safe and effective..
Yemen is not a "Collapsed failed state", it is an ancient proud society that survived over a decade of US genocidal attack, based from Arabia and UAE.
As for "Whether they can attack US military ships", I think the historical record over the past 2 years demonstrates amply that ability. They have not only defeated the US Navy, but the total NATO navies as well.
Not bad for a small country that doesn't even have a navy itself, I'm sure you'll agree.
There is still no trade to the genocidal Nazis in Israel through the Red Sea.
And on two occasions, two US carrier battle groups have reported engaging with Yemeni attacks, while the US (Naturally) denies receiving any damage, the carriers themselves withdrew almost immediately afterwards, and there is considerable evidence that the Yemenis DID successfully damage the carriers themselves - such as one occasion the carrier in question imposing a no-landing restriction, including the mail flights!, while it steamed off to a US port that had repair facilities. This move was not in the scheduled calendar.
I recall the damage the Argentinians did to the RN during the Falklands conflict, with just a handful of air-launched missiles. That was 30+ years ago.
Those missiles were 1950s, and not even sonic, let alone hypersonic such as the Yemenis have developed.
The US itself is unable to develop successful hypersonics.
"Failed state"?
Not as big a fail as the US and its vassals.
And no, I do not watch MSDNC, or any US corporate news chains, any more than I regard McDs as edible food.
yemen is fucked - when I was there just prior to this war kicking off... I met with the head of economic affairs for the region who was in Yemen...
He said - and I quote - over coffee in the Movenpick hotel - 'Yemen is running out of oil -- they need energy to desalinate water and pump up up to elevation where most of the people live... so basically (and I quote) Yemen is fucked.
Yet you believe that a country that is completely fucked is attacked US war ships hahaha... now that's a good one
How bout those 'Safe and Effective' vaccines... oh and how about WMD.... hahaha
And then there is this https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/how-did-they-charge-the-mars-ingenuity
Barnyard animals are stupid and very gullible... if cnnbbc tells them it's true... they don't question .. even if they know cnnbbc is in the business of lying as is required by the Ministry of Truth
hahahaha ... attacking US warships... like Tonkin right?
Sacrifices Will Be Made.
European economies suffer as The USA struggles to remain in control, dominant...
Even causing CHAOS can be used as a weapon of WAR...
The US will fight Iran to the last Israeli - if that's what it takes to bring
China to heel...
That was certainly the DNC plan.
It looks like Trump may be a little more humane. And the 'techbros' behind him are more interested in their own wealth than the US Empire's psychotic plans.
I doubt the Israelis have much interest in dying for America - they are simply not as dumb as Ukrainians.
It feels like collapse is close, especially with a global trade war looming, though I suppose that could paper over the problems for a while with reduced demand.
The end of growth is here, says B. But he doesn't drive it home. The Energy Descent Future is upon us (David Holmgren's term). And then there's the tipping points, a la Rockstrom and co. And the ones he doesn't mention like methane clathrates. Ana Makierva)
On the plus side, Walter Jehne's soil carbon sponge and the land use impact that twins with GHG emissions as cause of warming but instead of GHG fungibility, LandUse is local and stays put. Benefits stay put. Jehne has calculated how fast the 1.2kJ/m2 of excess heat can be absorbed by green vegetation of all types.