'We need fossil fuels to live / Fossil fuels will kill us'.
Indeed, they are society's hardest drug, and we are hooked on them. Since there are only placebos (a.k.a. 'renewables') and no true substitutes (like methadone or buprenorphine for heroin), the crash is, whether we like it or not, unavoidable.
The only flaw in the analogy there is that in fact heroin has neutral-toxicity when used at 'regular' dosage. The two main problems with it is that because it is illegal, users cannot buy regulated quality, so they often OD when they unexpectedly get a 'good' batch; and they are excluded from society, so have to turn to crime to afford it.
The Swiss program running for decades now has shown that addiction to the crap does not only not have to be fatal; but that many users simply outgrow it and stop using of their own free will.
I suppose an analogy would be if normal people started living like the Amish, discovered they loved the lifestyle, and freely gave up oil, many modcons, and hightech.
I think a surprisingly large number of Westerners would indeed choose such a lifestyle - if it wasn't made impossible by the predatory behaviour of our ruling classes.
An analogy is never the real thing. What you call "Flaw" in such context is inherent to any analogy. Why would you use one if describing the original concept was easier to understand? 😄.
The Amish way was the one we used for centuries, and has been proved to work well. But there is no guarantee it will still be sustainable for long. I'd rather tend to bet on the Neanderthal's one. 🙊
P.S. Do you know how to edit one's post? Or use HTML tags here?
But you'll be grateful to have one or two nearby when the place does collapse, providing nearly free electricity to local homes and possibly small businesses. The Tvindkraft windmill in Denmark is still doing so, 70 years after it was built - with maintenance.
What was the novel where post-collapse, the 'elites' retreat into their bunkers and the army becomes the elite's militia, stealing resources and imposing their dictatorship on the surrounding areas?
Fx, I've happened to work on the Tvindkraft myself, 20 or so years ago. The floor had begun to rust, and I went in there, 50m+ up, to support it with fibreglass and resin. The motor itself was a repurposed battleship part, along with the ground-based storm-breakers. There was a small dedicated team to keep it running, none of whom were there when it was built, but knew the systems inside out and jury-rigged both repairs and also continued improvements.
Now, many of the Danish windmills were build and installed by Vesta, which until recently was a Danish worker-cooperative; coops are famous for training in redundancy, and maintaining large equipment stockpiles (Rather than being at the cutting edge of 'just in time' bollox).
So therefore should Denmark experience a collapse, there will be sufficient local technicians with the skills and equipment to keep the turbines running in most areas of the country.
In the UK, a heavily de-skilled country long run into the ground by Thatcherites and their descendants, this may well be more of a problem. But I'll tell you this - the ability of humans to learn, and to adapt in emergencies, is actually quite extraordinary - given a chance.
There is a chance that the newer turbines are so electronically rigged, (Like Tesla cars compared to cars of 50 yrs ago etc), that the current systems cannot be maintained. But nonetheless, the physical infrastructure will be there in place. Perhaps a less efficient turbine can be rigged, or built to replace the ones in there when they break, and the blades can be laboriously built by hand, just as Tvindkraft's were.
As long as the collapse is not total and catastrophic, new people can be taught and learn; basic engineering skills can become the norm again; and communities KNOW just how vital even a small amount of electricity can be. We don't have whales to massacre just to light homes anymore.
Of course if the collapse is worse, or less severe than expected, different outcomes and needs will come to the fore.
But I for one would ENORMOUSLY prefer to be living near to a wind-turbine than a nuclear plant come collapse time, for every reason imaginable.
"What was the novel where post-collapse, the 'elites' retreat into their bunkers and the army becomes the elite's militia, stealing resources and imposing their dictatorship on the surrounding areas?"
"I suppose an analogy would be if normal people started living like the Amish"
----------
I resemble that remark...
(Relatively) low tech systems implemented with cutting edge understanding of the physical world and optimized for society wide cost/benefits including intangibles such as personal satisfaction rather than maximal enrichment of a tiny ruling/ownership class could be awesome, from the glimpses I've had. Getting there? Lots of blood would be shed.
Excellent analysis and exposé, have been hoping to see updated figures. The last ones I had were in the decade up to 2018, energy use increased 65% worldwide, and "renewables" went from 3.5% to ~5% of total energy supply.
So is your chart 'Changes in total energy supply' showing a net 26% increase in energy use in the decade to 2024?
Or asked another way, if 563exJ was the total in 2024, what was the total in 2014?
Either way, if there is a measured reduction in the rate of increase of energy supplied, that would be telling of itself.
Tim Morgan is suggesting that preliminary data is now showing world growth peaked in 2023, and that the rate of increase in growth is now falling.
And lets not forget, 13-15% of that 563exJ is now used to extract and refine the energy we use....
Plain and simple truth so carefully hidden. The confusion when food on the shelves is difficult to come by spells the breakdown of civilization, chaos, and violence.
See Fast Eddy's blog for an apocalyptic view of 'the end of the world'. I think he exaggerates but no-one knows for sure. We haven't 'run the experiment' before.
Fast Eddy is smart. I don't always agree with him, but I think planning for the worst is wise. We've crossed a lot of tipping points and fools are in charge.
Great analysis in The Tale of Two Energy Transitions! The data paints a sobering picture of our fossil fuel dependence and the illusory progress of the "energy transition." While the shift of economic power eastward highlights real growth, it’s unsustainable without addressing finite resources. As fossil fuels deplete, we’re likely to see more animal labor and manual jobs—think draft horses and hand tools—replacing energy-intensive systems. This could mean steady work for many, but it also signals a long, inevitable decline in living standards as energy scarcity reshapes economies. No amount of statistical sleight-of-hand can hide the physics.
Pipelines are the most efficient way to move hydrocarbon liquid/gas fuels and have about 1/3 the losses delivered: lost to friction & etc. as electrical transmission does to resistance heating, hysterisis & etc.. Read through this?
I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing all the politicians, lawyers, economists, managers, salespeople, bean counters and other bureaucrats, along with the younger generation who seem so engrossed in their smartphones, will react to the unavoidable shift. It will be fascinating to witness them transition into the real world of work when almost everything they know will become even more useless than it is already.
By that, I of course mean that their descent into hell promises to bring fresh perspectives and innovative ideas to the workplace. I’m excited to see how they will contribute to our collective success.. 😈 😈 😈
Great piece! Reminds me of Richard Feynman's caution.."and you are the easiest person for you to fool.." Denial is a powerful force in the human consciousness...That 59% of transmitted power figure is very useful, and possibly a little low...I have been pointing out for years that electric cars don't save energy because of the huge transmission losses followed by the large losses in cycling the batteries....but people would rather believe the fiction that they are helping the environment....
I'm really glad I found your 'Big Beautiful Substack.' 😉 At first glance, it seems there is far too much content to read quickly, so please forgive me if I end up stating the obvious in my posts.
Energy is THE measure of change. Period.
The idea of an energy transition has proven to be a pipe dream. Throughout history, whenever a new form of energy was domesticated, its usage was added to existing forms, and even worse, the consumption of older energy sources increased.
Additionally, there is the rebound effect: often, any savings we achieve are often more than offset by increased usage. We humans are insatiable.
But I was really interested in your observation about the West-East shift. I believe that China is in the best position to win the upcoming race for survival among human societies. They have an engineering mindset and a long-term perspective built into their culture.
And boom, straight to it: “Yes, that would mean a relentless decrease in economic output, job losses and a ton of things needed to be reorganized. Since that’s not gonna help them win any elections, our economic and political elite decided to keep pretending that all is fine and that we are making progress.” And you can extrapolate this myopic fetish to almost any sector, almost anywhere.
New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher ‘Spinner’ Luxon is the poster-pinup-boy of energy transition obfuscation. He is all smoke and mirrors. He is the type of leader who stands at the cliff face waving the last of his people over the edge, while he extracts the very last drops of civilisation. Unfortunately, he isn’t the only one. Looking at you Anthony ‘Aboriginal Artwork’ Albanese, nice work on extending Woodside’s operation out until 2070. So what if, “There are more than 1m petroglyphs in the area, some nearly 50,000 years old and including the oldest known depictions of a human face.”
And on the economy, what is there to say? I mean just look around. NZ’s PM Luxon still thinks growth-growth-growth is the answer as do most OECD economies and their leaders. Wait a sec. Can you hear that? That’s dinosaurs bellowing.
I’m with David Suzuki on this, there is still time and still hope…but there are elephants in the room, and if we can’t deal with them, then we probably don’t make it. As Susuki argues, there might be a few communities left here and there. Fortunately, I’m old enough to miss seeing how it all ends, though I will admit to being curious.
An excellent article, many thanks. I like the technical data it gives a reality to what is a serious scenario. I believe we must simplify life and existence. The principal offenders and drivers are not actually the ‘people’, it’s the corporations and mega rich (off the back of oil, pharmaceuticals, tech, banking et-al) who have exploited the earth for their own gain, then blamed us the people for the consequences! The likes of Rockerfeller, Carnegie, Ford, Rothschild’s using and abusing the people for their own nefarious ends. Now these very same parasites after plundering the earth, destroying communities, family values, countries; continue to spew their evil darkness via education, politics, governments and a multitude of nefarious NGO organisations. They and their minions pushed the ever increasing range of products onto us via advertising and peer pressure, they made us sick with the poisons and processed foodstuffs, then plied the wares of big Pharma to allegedly make us better, but in truth just creating addictive habits to then make more money from further drugs, it goes on and on. These same players tentacles reach everywhere subverting every facet of society, living and life, creating wars when it suits them, making enemies that change with the wind. So I say no to them all, I want a simpler life not controlled by these parasites, in communities of families where traditional values matter and the riches of the Earth are valued not for profit or plunder but for the gradual enrichment of society, used in controlled and measured quantities. I could go on, but I’m sure you all understand.
Correct; the many complicit and involved 'proles' enabled it to go this far. A 'play' decades or hundreds of years in the making, playing out with the involvement of the masses, who hanker after the next 'iPhone', car, piece of tech, vaccine - you name it. Caught; hook, line and sinker.....
What I don't get is: the building of so many wind turbines and solar panels, all made by fossil fuels. Won't that be, someday, a (fossil) energy saver? I know, that within 10 years or so they need to be replaced. But in the meantime they deliver electricity for both storage in the form of hydrogen, and also direct saving of fossil fuels use. Or at least temporarily.
Don't get me wrong here: I don't believe that the economy will work on these forms of energy. But what I've heard is that in the desert of Africa, companies built solar systems to produce hydrogen for the (new) way of transportation. I can't believe that building these systems are counted in the calculations.
I would love to speak, for my podcast, with Dutch speaking engineers who are willing to tell the whole story, like B is doing. The truth must be spoken in all planetary languages.
Jan Mulder, I understand that renewables will only offer humanity a Soft landing ( maybe extra time to transition) to life without fossil fuels. Once Those devices/ structures/ solar panels/ rubber washers/ tools/ etc which require fossil fuels to be made, or repaired or replaced, break down, they will be useless. Lifestyles may well have to reprise / return to those of earlier decades. Think farming with horse drawn ploughs. Ink and paper. But what then of systems like sewage and tap water ?
Globalization will come to an end when transportation systems fail. How will we feed the cities then? Even if many goods remain available, how will they be delivered to the right locations? etc...
The initial paragraph's description of energy efficiency with respect to globalization is totally wrong. Globalization (the process of reliably establishing non-imperial forms of transnational divisions of labor) has allowed for immense energy efficiency improvements that have all been reinvested into increasing the energy throughput (and emissions) of civilization.
We're progressing so dangerously and rapidly in this race to making the Earth unfarmable because of our efficiency improvements.
"In case of the US electric grid, for example, a whopping 59% of the energy fed into the system by power plants gets wasted as transmission and conversion losses."
That's an interesting factoid. Are you saying that 59% of the electricity generated by power plants (including, presumably, renewable energy farms) gets lost in transmission? It's interesting because a claim often made by electrification advocates is that if everything ran on electricity, we'd only need a third of what gets lumped as "primary energy" because electricity is so much more efficient. But with those sorts of losses, we'd presumably need about two thirds of current primary energy for the same final use energy quantity.
This prompts the thought that if AGW is a thing, it may have far more to do with the colossal amount of heat we are adding to the atmosphere than with the amount of CO2
The Trumpers, including the corporate sector do not represent the American people. They represent only the ultra wealthy who think that their money will save them. The US economy will crash when fossil fuels run out and the citizens of American will die from industrial poisons, famine, diseases and lack of health care. The very wealthy don't realize that their forever pollution and ecological destruction will catch up to them.
'We need fossil fuels to live / Fossil fuels will kill us'.
The Abrahamic religions are definitely going to find many scapegoat 'Satans' before the end of this.
'We need fossil fuels to live / Fossil fuels will kill us'.
Indeed, they are society's hardest drug, and we are hooked on them. Since there are only placebos (a.k.a. 'renewables') and no true substitutes (like methadone or buprenorphine for heroin), the crash is, whether we like it or not, unavoidable.
The only flaw in the analogy there is that in fact heroin has neutral-toxicity when used at 'regular' dosage. The two main problems with it is that because it is illegal, users cannot buy regulated quality, so they often OD when they unexpectedly get a 'good' batch; and they are excluded from society, so have to turn to crime to afford it.
The Swiss program running for decades now has shown that addiction to the crap does not only not have to be fatal; but that many users simply outgrow it and stop using of their own free will.
I suppose an analogy would be if normal people started living like the Amish, discovered they loved the lifestyle, and freely gave up oil, many modcons, and hightech.
I think a surprisingly large number of Westerners would indeed choose such a lifestyle - if it wasn't made impossible by the predatory behaviour of our ruling classes.
An analogy is never the real thing. What you call "Flaw" in such context is inherent to any analogy. Why would you use one if describing the original concept was easier to understand? 😄.
The Amish way was the one we used for centuries, and has been proved to work well. But there is no guarantee it will still be sustainable for long. I'd rather tend to bet on the Neanderthal's one. 🙊
P.S. Do you know how to edit one's post? Or use HTML tags here?
The 3 dots on the right of your name.
Yeah, Neanderthals rule. :)
Thanks for the dots.
Actually we are collectively behaving more like Neanderthals than Amish' so it will make it easier on our so touted brains.
If you need to find a Country/Empire in the state of collapse look no further than Great Britain.
I have a ring side seat.
The windmills dotting the country are like something out of a HG Wells novel.
The Tripods, lollol.
But you'll be grateful to have one or two nearby when the place does collapse, providing nearly free electricity to local homes and possibly small businesses. The Tvindkraft windmill in Denmark is still doing so, 70 years after it was built - with maintenance.
What was the novel where post-collapse, the 'elites' retreat into their bunkers and the army becomes the elite's militia, stealing resources and imposing their dictatorship on the surrounding areas?
What make you think spare parts and maintenance will still be available by then? 😉
Well, it depends who has built them, doesn't it?
Fx, I've happened to work on the Tvindkraft myself, 20 or so years ago. The floor had begun to rust, and I went in there, 50m+ up, to support it with fibreglass and resin. The motor itself was a repurposed battleship part, along with the ground-based storm-breakers. There was a small dedicated team to keep it running, none of whom were there when it was built, but knew the systems inside out and jury-rigged both repairs and also continued improvements.
Now, many of the Danish windmills were build and installed by Vesta, which until recently was a Danish worker-cooperative; coops are famous for training in redundancy, and maintaining large equipment stockpiles (Rather than being at the cutting edge of 'just in time' bollox).
So therefore should Denmark experience a collapse, there will be sufficient local technicians with the skills and equipment to keep the turbines running in most areas of the country.
In the UK, a heavily de-skilled country long run into the ground by Thatcherites and their descendants, this may well be more of a problem. But I'll tell you this - the ability of humans to learn, and to adapt in emergencies, is actually quite extraordinary - given a chance.
There is a chance that the newer turbines are so electronically rigged, (Like Tesla cars compared to cars of 50 yrs ago etc), that the current systems cannot be maintained. But nonetheless, the physical infrastructure will be there in place. Perhaps a less efficient turbine can be rigged, or built to replace the ones in there when they break, and the blades can be laboriously built by hand, just as Tvindkraft's were.
As long as the collapse is not total and catastrophic, new people can be taught and learn; basic engineering skills can become the norm again; and communities KNOW just how vital even a small amount of electricity can be. We don't have whales to massacre just to light homes anymore.
Of course if the collapse is worse, or less severe than expected, different outcomes and needs will come to the fore.
But I for one would ENORMOUSLY prefer to be living near to a wind-turbine than a nuclear plant come collapse time, for every reason imaginable.
"What was the novel where post-collapse, the 'elites' retreat into their bunkers and the army becomes the elite's militia, stealing resources and imposing their dictatorship on the surrounding areas?"
----------
"A Boy and His Dog"?
@Gnuneo
"I suppose an analogy would be if normal people started living like the Amish"
----------
I resemble that remark...
(Relatively) low tech systems implemented with cutting edge understanding of the physical world and optimized for society wide cost/benefits including intangibles such as personal satisfaction rather than maximal enrichment of a tiny ruling/ownership class could be awesome, from the glimpses I've had. Getting there? Lots of blood would be shed.
Excellent analysis and exposé, have been hoping to see updated figures. The last ones I had were in the decade up to 2018, energy use increased 65% worldwide, and "renewables" went from 3.5% to ~5% of total energy supply.
So is your chart 'Changes in total energy supply' showing a net 26% increase in energy use in the decade to 2024?
Or asked another way, if 563exJ was the total in 2024, what was the total in 2014?
Either way, if there is a measured reduction in the rate of increase of energy supplied, that would be telling of itself.
Tim Morgan is suggesting that preliminary data is now showing world growth peaked in 2023, and that the rate of increase in growth is now falling.
And lets not forget, 13-15% of that 563exJ is now used to extract and refine the energy we use....
Plain and simple truth so carefully hidden. The confusion when food on the shelves is difficult to come by spells the breakdown of civilization, chaos, and violence.
See Fast Eddy's blog for an apocalyptic view of 'the end of the world'. I think he exaggerates but no-one knows for sure. We haven't 'run the experiment' before.
Fast Eddy is smart. I don't always agree with him, but I think planning for the worst is wise. We've crossed a lot of tipping points and fools are in charge.
For this topic, the work of Jean Baptiste Fressoz is enlightening
Great analysis in The Tale of Two Energy Transitions! The data paints a sobering picture of our fossil fuel dependence and the illusory progress of the "energy transition." While the shift of economic power eastward highlights real growth, it’s unsustainable without addressing finite resources. As fossil fuels deplete, we’re likely to see more animal labor and manual jobs—think draft horses and hand tools—replacing energy-intensive systems. This could mean steady work for many, but it also signals a long, inevitable decline in living standards as energy scarcity reshapes economies. No amount of statistical sleight-of-hand can hide the physics.
Good article. Relentlessly depressing as usual. But does this consider the 70% waste for fossil fuel transport?
Pipelines are the most efficient way to move hydrocarbon liquid/gas fuels and have about 1/3 the losses delivered: lost to friction & etc. as electrical transmission does to resistance heating, hysterisis & etc.. Read through this?
https://www.google.com/search?q=energy+per+ton+per+kilometer+used+to+move+hydrocarbons+in+pipeline&client=ms-android-verizon&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8&inm=vs
I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing all the politicians, lawyers, economists, managers, salespeople, bean counters and other bureaucrats, along with the younger generation who seem so engrossed in their smartphones, will react to the unavoidable shift. It will be fascinating to witness them transition into the real world of work when almost everything they know will become even more useless than it is already.
By that, I of course mean that their descent into hell promises to bring fresh perspectives and innovative ideas to the workplace. I’m excited to see how they will contribute to our collective success.. 😈 😈 😈
Great piece! Reminds me of Richard Feynman's caution.."and you are the easiest person for you to fool.." Denial is a powerful force in the human consciousness...That 59% of transmitted power figure is very useful, and possibly a little low...I have been pointing out for years that electric cars don't save energy because of the huge transmission losses followed by the large losses in cycling the batteries....but people would rather believe the fiction that they are helping the environment....
I'm really glad I found your 'Big Beautiful Substack.' 😉 At first glance, it seems there is far too much content to read quickly, so please forgive me if I end up stating the obvious in my posts.
Energy is THE measure of change. Period.
The idea of an energy transition has proven to be a pipe dream. Throughout history, whenever a new form of energy was domesticated, its usage was added to existing forms, and even worse, the consumption of older energy sources increased.
Additionally, there is the rebound effect: often, any savings we achieve are often more than offset by increased usage. We humans are insatiable.
But I was really interested in your observation about the West-East shift. I believe that China is in the best position to win the upcoming race for survival among human societies. They have an engineering mindset and a long-term perspective built into their culture.
"any savings we achieve are often more than offset by increased usage"
This is the well-known Jevons paradox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Indeed, a.k.a. the rebound effect. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebound_effect_(conservation).
And boom, straight to it: “Yes, that would mean a relentless decrease in economic output, job losses and a ton of things needed to be reorganized. Since that’s not gonna help them win any elections, our economic and political elite decided to keep pretending that all is fine and that we are making progress.” And you can extrapolate this myopic fetish to almost any sector, almost anywhere.
New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher ‘Spinner’ Luxon is the poster-pinup-boy of energy transition obfuscation. He is all smoke and mirrors. He is the type of leader who stands at the cliff face waving the last of his people over the edge, while he extracts the very last drops of civilisation. Unfortunately, he isn’t the only one. Looking at you Anthony ‘Aboriginal Artwork’ Albanese, nice work on extending Woodside’s operation out until 2070. So what if, “There are more than 1m petroglyphs in the area, some nearly 50,000 years old and including the oldest known depictions of a human face.”
And on the economy, what is there to say? I mean just look around. NZ’s PM Luxon still thinks growth-growth-growth is the answer as do most OECD economies and their leaders. Wait a sec. Can you hear that? That’s dinosaurs bellowing.
I’m with David Suzuki on this, there is still time and still hope…but there are elephants in the room, and if we can’t deal with them, then we probably don’t make it. As Susuki argues, there might be a few communities left here and there. Fortunately, I’m old enough to miss seeing how it all ends, though I will admit to being curious.
An excellent article, many thanks. I like the technical data it gives a reality to what is a serious scenario. I believe we must simplify life and existence. The principal offenders and drivers are not actually the ‘people’, it’s the corporations and mega rich (off the back of oil, pharmaceuticals, tech, banking et-al) who have exploited the earth for their own gain, then blamed us the people for the consequences! The likes of Rockerfeller, Carnegie, Ford, Rothschild’s using and abusing the people for their own nefarious ends. Now these very same parasites after plundering the earth, destroying communities, family values, countries; continue to spew their evil darkness via education, politics, governments and a multitude of nefarious NGO organisations. They and their minions pushed the ever increasing range of products onto us via advertising and peer pressure, they made us sick with the poisons and processed foodstuffs, then plied the wares of big Pharma to allegedly make us better, but in truth just creating addictive habits to then make more money from further drugs, it goes on and on. These same players tentacles reach everywhere subverting every facet of society, living and life, creating wars when it suits them, making enemies that change with the wind. So I say no to them all, I want a simpler life not controlled by these parasites, in communities of families where traditional values matter and the riches of the Earth are valued not for profit or plunder but for the gradual enrichment of society, used in controlled and measured quantities. I could go on, but I’m sure you all understand.
"The principal offenders and drivers are not actually the ‘people’"
You're right, but without the proles' active collaboration, it could never have gone that far.
I think humans are flawed beings (animals), THE fatal mistake of Nature (or whatever imaginary god you believe in).
Correct; the many complicit and involved 'proles' enabled it to go this far. A 'play' decades or hundreds of years in the making, playing out with the involvement of the masses, who hanker after the next 'iPhone', car, piece of tech, vaccine - you name it. Caught; hook, line and sinker.....
What I don't get is: the building of so many wind turbines and solar panels, all made by fossil fuels. Won't that be, someday, a (fossil) energy saver? I know, that within 10 years or so they need to be replaced. But in the meantime they deliver electricity for both storage in the form of hydrogen, and also direct saving of fossil fuels use. Or at least temporarily.
Don't get me wrong here: I don't believe that the economy will work on these forms of energy. But what I've heard is that in the desert of Africa, companies built solar systems to produce hydrogen for the (new) way of transportation. I can't believe that building these systems are counted in the calculations.
I would love to speak, for my podcast, with Dutch speaking engineers who are willing to tell the whole story, like B is doing. The truth must be spoken in all planetary languages.
Jan Mulder, I understand that renewables will only offer humanity a Soft landing ( maybe extra time to transition) to life without fossil fuels. Once Those devices/ structures/ solar panels/ rubber washers/ tools/ etc which require fossil fuels to be made, or repaired or replaced, break down, they will be useless. Lifestyles may well have to reprise / return to those of earlier decades. Think farming with horse drawn ploughs. Ink and paper. But what then of systems like sewage and tap water ?
Globalization will come to an end when transportation systems fail. How will we feed the cities then? Even if many goods remain available, how will they be delivered to the right locations? etc...
"When the Trucks Stop Running" by Alice Friedemann.
https://energyskeptic.com/2016/when-trucks-stop-running-so-does-civilization/
Here is a link with a summary.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/when-trucks-stop-running-civilization-stops-running/
She also provided quite a few easy to find interviews which are a really good listen around 2016 and on.
The initial paragraph's description of energy efficiency with respect to globalization is totally wrong. Globalization (the process of reliably establishing non-imperial forms of transnational divisions of labor) has allowed for immense energy efficiency improvements that have all been reinvested into increasing the energy throughput (and emissions) of civilization.
We're progressing so dangerously and rapidly in this race to making the Earth unfarmable because of our efficiency improvements.
"In case of the US electric grid, for example, a whopping 59% of the energy fed into the system by power plants gets wasted as transmission and conversion losses."
That's an interesting factoid. Are you saying that 59% of the electricity generated by power plants (including, presumably, renewable energy farms) gets lost in transmission? It's interesting because a claim often made by electrification advocates is that if everything ran on electricity, we'd only need a third of what gets lumped as "primary energy" because electricity is so much more efficient. But with those sorts of losses, we'd presumably need about two thirds of current primary energy for the same final use energy quantity.
This prompts the thought that if AGW is a thing, it may have far more to do with the colossal amount of heat we are adding to the atmosphere than with the amount of CO2
The Trumpers, including the corporate sector do not represent the American people. They represent only the ultra wealthy who think that their money will save them. The US economy will crash when fossil fuels run out and the citizens of American will die from industrial poisons, famine, diseases and lack of health care. The very wealthy don't realize that their forever pollution and ecological destruction will catch up to them.